O.J. Atogwe: Can the Rams afford to let him go?

As I write this the St. Louis Rams have 15 hours to agree to a new contract with one of their best defensive players--safety O.J. Atogwe. Atogwe was franchised last off-season by the St. Louis Rams, but suffered a dislocated shoulder and a torn labrum in late November. He was put on IR by the, at the time, 1-11 Rams and missed the final four games. He opted for surgery on his shoulder and the Rams then gave up him a low-end restricted free agent tender, which he has refused to sign. Atogwe is one of the few RFA's who is eligible to become an unrestricted free agent if he does not sign his tender, which gives him a lot of leverage over St. Louis.

Atogwe has been one of the most underrated players in the league, quagmired on a bad defensive team and a franchise that has won just five games in the last three years. In the last four years Atogwe has picked off 18 passes, forced 14 fumbles, and recovered seven. He also has had 32 total pass deflections in the last four seasons. His coverage skills have improved steadily as each year has gone on. Last year on one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL Atogwe did not allow a single touchdown as a cover safety and had the 12th best opposing QB rating of safeties who played at least 750 snaps. Teams generally don't try to test him--he was only thrown at 31 times last season in 12 games. While he's not a stellar run-stopping safety, he's invaluable to a team that has struggled defensively for almost an entire decade.



The Rams have yet to come to an agreement with him. The shoulder injury certainly isn't helping his long-term prospects, and at 28, it can be argued that he may not have more than 2-3 good seasons left so teams are going to be shying away from giving him a long-term contract. That hurts his leverage, maybe evening out the leverage he has over St. Louis with the June 1st deadline. He also missed out on the majority of the early UFA big money.

Atogwe probably isn't going to see Kerry Rhodes or Bob Sanders money (around 7-8 million per year), but he can definitely get in the 5-6 million dollar range, which would make him one of the ten best paid safeties in football. Teams may choose to front-load his contract so that he becomes an easy release when he starts to hit the decline. Still, had he been an unrestricted free agent in March, he'd probably have cashed in like one of the best three safeties in football. Look for Dallas, Miami, San Diego, and possibly Chicago to make a play for Atogwe if he does hit the open market. My best guess is that he's going to wind up as a Dallas Cowboy to solidify what has quietly become one of the best secondaries in the NFL. Atogwe and Gerald Sensabaugh at safety with Terrence Newman and Mike Jenkins at corner is one of the most well-rounded starting secondaries in the league, and Dallas has very good depth as well with Orlando Scandrick at nickel corner and 2010 mid-round draft pick Akwasi Owusu-Ansah who will likely be a dime corner early in his career and try to jump into the nickel corner spot slowly.

Dallas would be a good spot for Atogwe, where he won't have to do much in terms of run support. Cleveland might not be a bad spot either if the Browns want to continue running Eric Mangini's Cover 3 secondary. Atogwe would likely play a similar role to Kerry Rhodes, who was the second best cover safety in the NFL this season. Atogwe should be a major player wherever he lands, and if he lands with a Super Bowl contender, watch out. He's a turnover machine and a disciplined cover man.