2009 Finish -- 9-7, wild card berth, lost in AFC Championship Game
Key Acquisitions -- RB LaDainian Tomlinson, WR Santonio Holmes, LG Vladamir Ducasse, OLB Jason Taylor, CB Antonio Cromartie, CB Kyle Wilson, S Brodney Pool, K Nick Folk
Key Departures -- RB Thomas Jones, RB Leon Washington, LG Alan Faneca, DE Marques Douglas, CB Lito Sheppard, S Kerry Rhodes, K Jay Feely
In an off-season where there was not much turnover, the Jets acquired five new starters this off-season and will have seven or eight different starters on Opening Day compared to last year's Opening Day. All of the moves they made were risk-reward moves.
1. The Jets running game will struggle without Thomas Jones and Alan Faneca. SELL.
Don't buy a word of it. Shonn Greene took Thomas Jones' starting job during the Jets playoff run. After the loss to Atlanta, Greene found himself getting the majority of the carries against Indianapolis (twice), Cincinnati (twice), and San Diego. During the Jets run up to the playoffs and in the playoffs Green rushed for 481 yards and two back-breaking touchdowns on an insane 5.8 yards per carry. As for Alan Faneca, he's been the worst linemen in New York, but has gotten the most attention because of his name. Ducasse's a raw rookie, but as a run blocker he projects as a force right away. Ducasse can't be too much worse then Faneca in pass protection, so it's a wash. The difference is that Ducasse is young with insane upside. Remember, Greene is the starter. Tomlinson will be getting 8-12 touches per game. Green is likely going to be closer to 20.
2. Mark Sanchez will take the next step. BUY.
He now has the freedom to make protection changes at the line and he has a full year under his belt in a very difficult offense to learn. But with a great running game and superb weapons in Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, Jerricho Cotchery, Dustin Keller, and Tomlinson/McKnight on check downs Sanchez's numbers should take a major step in the right direction. Sanchez's biggest problems came when Leon Washington went down last year. Now Sanchez has two effective check-down weapons in Tomlinson and rookie Joe McKnight. Don't expect him to put up elite numbers, but the Jets are going to be running a more balanced attack this year. I project Sanchez to throw for 3300 yards, 18 touchdown passes, and 12 interceptions.
3. The Jets secondary, which was the best in the NFL in 2009, has gotten better. SELL.
And sell it every which way until Sunday. Darrelle Revis is hands down the best corner in football, but he just lost arguably the best cover safety in all of football in Kerry Rhodes. While the Jets did improve talent wise at the number two corner spot upgrading from Lito Sheppard to Antonio Cromartie, Cromartie is a total gambler and the Jets may be susceptible against some big plays over the top because of it. If Brodney Pool stays healthy, maybe Cromartie can get away with it, but that's doubtful. Pool has had five concussions in a five year career. Revis Island will likely be unassailable (though matching last year's historic season would be ridiculous and is unlikely), the rest of the secondary will be a problem. I expect Kyle Wilson to take Cromartie's job by November, but corners develop slowly. I like the long-term prospects here for New York, but not this season.
4. Jason Taylor will do enough to earn the second year of his contract. SELL.
If he gets five sacks as a situational rusher I consider that a win. Bryan Thomas is a better cover linebacker and run defender. Pace is the best run defender on the team and also a better cover backer. Taylor is one-dimensional. When he's in it'll be on obvious passing downs. I don't see him making much of an impact. If he does, the Jets will have a great pass rush, but it's highly unlikely.
5. The Jets made a mistake replacing Jay Feely with Nick Folk. BUY BUY BUY.
Folk may not even make it through August as the Jets kicker. Feely may have struggled in the AFC Championship Game, but he was dynamite during the first and second rounds of the playoffs and all of the regular season. Folk has lost all confidence it seems.
6. The Jets are a legitimate contender. SELL.
This is a wildcard team--plain and simple. That means that there's a good chance that New York will miss the playoffs in a very competitive AFC. The long-term prospects look great, assuming New York can satisfy the contract demands of Darrelle Revis, Nick Mangold, David Harris, and Braylon Edwards and/or Santonio Holmes. They won't be able to lock up all five, but Revis and Mangold are certified locks to get re-signed. Harris is likely third in line. Edwards and Holmes will be competing all year to see who gets a long-term contract from New York. It's forseeable they both walk if New York feels that they can't afford to re-sign LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson who only has two years left on his deal. Bottom line though, too many gambles. Cromartie is going to be more of a hindrance then a help (and eventually Wilson will replace him). The Jets are relying on a rookie at guard, but as I've said I'm not too concerned with Ducasse starting (or former UNL beast Matt Slauson). What concerns me most is that the Jets did nothing to address their needs in the front seven. They didn't address the fact that Kris Jenkins is coming off a major knee injury and is in his 30's. The only excuse is that Sione Pouha was very good last year in his absence. However, 33 year old Shaun Ellis has still played very well at 3-4 DE, but how much more does he have in the tank? Mike DeVito will be a full-time starter for the first time in his career. Those are huge risks to take for a team that was only above average in stopping the run in 2009.
They're no better than a wildcard team. Certainly they could make a playoff run again with how they are built, but they won't win the division that's for sure.
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