Buy or Sell: Cleveland Browns

Eric Mangini's is against the ropes. He has to find a way to move the Cleveland Browns forward in the right direction under a new boss--Mike Holmgren. But after winning four straight games to end the season, the Browns may actually be going in the right direction. They did it with no legitimate passing game and they've improved all over the place on defense. A healthy offense and a smarter Jake Delhomme might actually get Cleveland back to respectability. Delhomme has to understand that he's nothing more than a game-manager now. If he figures that out, the Browns could ride Montario Hardesty and Jerome Harrison into late-season contention.

2009 Finish -- 5-11, 4th in AFC North
Key Acquisitions -- QB Jake Delhomme, QB Seneca Wallace, RB Montario Hardesty, FB Peyton Hillis, TE Ben Watson, OT Tony Pashos, LB Scott Fujita, LB Chris Gocong, CB Sheldon Brown, CB Joe Haden, S T.J. Ward
Key Departures -- QB Derek Anderson, RB Jamal Lewis

1. The Cleveland Browns contract disputes will affect the team negatively. SELL.
I'm not particularly concerned about it. FB Lawrence Vickers, LB D'Qwell Jackson, LB Matt Roth, S Abram Elam, and K Phil Dawson are all big parts of the team, but the Browns made a note to get a potential replacement for every single one of them. The Browns brought in Chris Gocong and Scott Fujita who have the ability to play inside or out in Mangini's 3-4. David Veikune is moving to inside linebacker as well. This means that Jackson, who was injured most of last year, is now expendable. Matt Roth had a great stint with Cleveland last season, but he hasn't proven enough to earn a long-term deal. He doesn't have the leverage to get traded or released. Chances are he's going to end his holdout (Jackson on the other hand may not). Lawrence Vickers is signing an injury waiver so even though he hasn't signed his RFA tender he is reporting to practice (which makes it seem like he wants to be a Brown for sure). He's another one who is likely to get a long-term contract. As for Elam and Dawson? The Browns signed Shaun Suisham as insurance and drafted T.J. Ward and Larry Asante AND have the position flexible Sheldon Brown. The Browns protected themselves well against these hold-outs. My guess is that Roth and Dawson will report, Vickers will get a long-term deal, Jackson will get traded and Elam will get a short-term pay-raise.

But even if none of them do, the Browns have protected themselves. Even at fullback, losing Lawrence Vickers means turning things over to Peyton Hillis, who would be a bigger receiving threat then Vickers even if he's not as good of a blocker.

2. The Browns will struggle defensively without Shaun Rogers. SELL.
On the contrary their best defensive football came with Ahtyba Rubin at nose tackle--not Shaun Rogers. Rogers is built to get after the quarterback, but Rubin is a true all-around nose tackle in the mold of Casey Hampton. The talent is there in Cleveland--a little quarterback stability and this team can win the division.

3. Colt McCoy will be the quarterback of the future. SELL.
Swing and a miss on this one. The Browns got him in the 3rd round, which turned out to be decent value for where his stock was, but McCoy doesn't have any of the tools to be an NFL quarterback. If he succeeds it'll be purely because he's in an offense tailored to weak-armed quarterbacks, but I don't see him succeeding.

4. Jake Delhomme will revive his career in Cleveland. SELL.
I can only sigh. Cleveland absolutely has the talent to win the AFC North even though a lot of the guys they have you may never have heard of, but they are full of a lot of youthful talent. If they get their holdouts back they are going to be a deep team, but what they are still missing is quarterback stability and ultimately it's going to stop them from getting to the playoffs. Delhomme will have to totally change his style of play if he wants to win in Cleveland. The Browns have got to have a guy who takes care of the ball while they pound the rock with Hardesty and Harrison while throwing the classic 5-10 yard passing plays in the WCO and occasionally taking shots downfield with Mohammed Massaquoi. But I don't think Delhomme is going to be able to re-invent himself this late in his career.

5. The Browns will give the wildcat fresh life. BUY.
The key to making the wildcat work is having wrinkles in the offense and a guy who is just as much a threat to pass as he is to run. Seneca Wallace can run the wildcat and use the explosive Joshua Cribbs as one of his weapons (and the Browns can switch on and off). The Browns have an array of versatility in their backfield now and with Seneca Wallace the Browns should be able to run a mobile offense like the wildcat. It probably won't last past this season, but the Browns have the right personnel to make the wildcat work.

6. Cleveland will finish last in the AFC North. SELL.
The Browns are going to jump over somebody. Personally I think it's Cincinnati. The division is absolutely loaded, but Cleveland has the benefit of playing the easiest 2010 schedule so finishing last might not be in the cards for Cleveland. I can legitimate see every team in the division finishing with eight wins or better though. This is one of the teams that clearly has a coach on the hot seat and he should be able to save his job this year with a winning record.