Biggie probably summed it up perfectly when he rapped about the more money you have the more problems. With the NBA playoffs winding down free agency is right around the corner. Never has a sport seen so many marque free agents hit the market. Imagine if Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Adrian Peterson and 10 other of the NFL's best players all hit free agency. Well that is what the NBA has on its hands this off season and for many fans the course of their favorite team is about to change. Without further ado lets break down the upcoming free agents, and where they might land.
1.
LeBron James: Likelihood of staying with current team- 70%
Other potential teams: Knicks, Nets, Bulls, Heat, Clippers
Coming off his best season of his career LBJ is set to be the most coveted free agent in league history. James is coming off a season in which he won his 2nd straight MVP and led his team to the best record in the NBA. James is all about winning and nothing else. Seven seasons into his career James has yet to win a championship. Cleveland gives him the best option to win multiple rings, and they have shown in the past they will do whatever it takes to keep him happy. You will hear a lot about him going to NY but lets be realistic the only sport you go to NY for is baseball. The Knicks are 2nd fittle and in D'antoni's gimmicky system LeBron would never win a champion. The sleeper in all this has to be the Nets mainly because they are moving to Brooklyn and LeBron loves Jay-Z like Ben Roethlisberger likes drunken college girls.
2.
Dwayne Wade: Likelihood of staying with current team- 65%
Other potential teams: Bulls
Two months ago I would have bet you one of Craig Sager's horrific suits that Wade was staying in South Beach. It was all but signed, sealed and delivered. And then the playoffs rolled around or for the other 11 members of the Heat and Erik Spolestra summer vacation. The heat or Zombie Heat as i would like to call them did not show any signs that they even realized they were breathing oxygen. Jermaine O'Neal forever set the bar for how bad an athethle could look in a contract year. Micheal Beasley is making me wonder if he should just summit a audition tape to VH1 for the next season of Celebrity Rehab with Dr. Drew. He is a bust and if we were to redo that draft Beasley would be taken 13th. If Pat Riley can get Wade another big name( Amare) and can fire Spolestra than Wade stays 100%.
3.
Dirk Nowitzki: Likelihood of staying with current team- 75%
Other potential teams: Heat, Bulls,Knicks, Clippers
The greatest European player the NBA has ever seen as also become the guy you DO NOT want to build your team around. For such a smart guy I do not understand Mark Cuban's infatuation with Dirk. Yes he average 25 points and 8 boards, but has shown time and time again he can not get it done in the playoffs. Dirk may be the new Patrick Ewing, a excellent player who reaches a couple of finals but never gets it done. Ewing ran into Jordan time and again, Dirk well he runs into Kobe, Duncan, Wade, LeBron, Durant should i contuine? He's a great player and will go down most likely as one of the NBA's 50 greatest but at 31 he only has about 5 more very good years left and does anyone see him winning a championship in the next five years because i do not. I feel that it is a lock that he returns to Big D, however if he did not Chicago could be a very likely destination with Rose and Noah already in place.
4.
Chris Bosh: Likelihood of staying with current team- 0%
Other potential teams- Bulls, Heat, Knicks
Lets say this you have a better chance of seeing Tracy McGrady get past the first round than see Bosh rocking a Raptors jersey next season. On Bosh's Twitter which has become the Constitution for people under 25 shows that the free agent to be removed the fact that he is the team's captain and he also switched his location from Toronto to everywhere. Toronto just can't win, the Maple Leafs suck, the Jays suck and now the Raptors are about to nose dive straight into 5 consecutive seasons of 50 plus loses. I personally think that Bosh will land in Chicago. They have the money to offer 2 max conracts and unlike some teams with that abaility that don't completely and utterly suck. A roster with Rose, Noah and Bosh and throw in a mid level guy lets say Ray Allen and the Bulls could be the 2nd or 3rd best team in the east.
5.
Amare Stoudemire: Likelihood of staying with current team- 30%
Other potential teams- Heat, Knicks
Coming into the season Amare was pretty much guaranteed a max contract but wasn't the most deserving of that contract. Well after tearing it up over the final five months Amare is certainly poised for a max contract. In the playoffs Stoudemire has scored at least 18 points in all but one game for the Suns. Stoudemire does have a summer home in Miami so i think that would be his most likely destination for the forward, however he does enjoy playing with Steve Nash and the Suns style of offense does fit him. A dark horse is New York because of the ties to Mike D'antoni.
6.
Carlos Boozer: Likelihood of staying with current team- 25%
Other potential teams- Heat, Bulls, Nets, Clippers, Knicks
Boozer decided to come back to Utah a year ago when he could have opted out of his contract and to his credit it was a smart move. Boozer averaged 19 points and 11 rebounds despite being a undersized power forward. With the Jazz having tied up so much money in Paul Milsap last season i find it difficult that the Jazz throw a lot of cash Boozer's way. I could see Boozer ending up in Miami if the Heat were unable to acquire Amare. The Nets, Clippers, Bulls and Knicks are all in the running as well because they have a lot of cap room and Boozer is not the type of player who is to concerned with winning a ring in my opinion.
7.
Yao Ming: Likelihood of staying with current team- 50%
Other potential teams- Nets, Clippers
You probably think I am out of my mind for putting Yao above Joe Johnson, but am I really out of my mind here, think about it. Joe Johnson's career average is 17.6 ppg and 4.5 apg, but has a major knock on him that he is not a leader and has shown in the playoffs that he does not have what it takes to lead a team. Yao's career average is 19.1 ppg and 9.3 rpg. Now I understand that Yao has only played in 58% of Houston's games since the 05-06 season and that he has bad feet but I believe he is worth the risk. A healthy Yao can lead a team to at least a second round appearance and also the amount of business Yao would generate a team is scary. He draws in a lot of the Asian fans and would sell tickets.
8.
Joe Johnson: Likelihood of staying with current team- 70%
Other potential teams- Knicks
The Hawks have made it known to the world that their top priority is re-signing Joe Johnson. To bad for Hawks fan because we have already seen what this team will do with this unit. Does anyone truly believe that this team will improve enough to get them over the hump. They have shown that Johnson as their leader that they will win 45-50 games get to the second round and then just quit and get ready to hit the tee. Last summer Johnson turned down a 4 year $60 million contract from the Hawks, after his recent playoff performance they may have been a bad move. The good news for Joe is that their are 8 teams that can offer him a max deal and I'm sure that if they Knicks and Bulls strike out on the LeBron sweepstakes than Johnson would be a likely second choice.
9.
Paul Pierce: Likelihood of staying with current team- 90%
Other potential teams- mystery
It's time for the fans of Boston to realize the Truth, that Paul Pierce is at the end of his career. Can anyone see him leaving the Celtics? probably not seeing as how he is owed to him $ 21.5 million through 2010-11. Pierce who is going to be 32 would never get that money on the market however with the CBA looming this could be his last shot to get a big contract.
10.
Rudy Gay: Likelihood of staying with current team- 40%
Other potential teams- Clippers, Wizards, T-Wolves
Rudy wanted a contract extension last year from the Grizzlies and the team barked at his $10 million asking price. Well after averaging 20 and 6 this season Rudy is in position to cash in. I am not a huge fan of Rudy Gay, he has at best an average jump shot and has won nothing in the NBA. The Grizzlies can match any offer sheet because Gay is a restricted free agent but i think he will jump ship. Washington and L.A. are the two top choices with Minnesota having to pull of a sign an trade to get the swing man.
2nd Tier Free Agents:
Ray Allen- Stays with Celtics- 50%
Ray is getting older despite averaging 16 ppg this season. The Celtics tried this past season to shop him around and the Big 3 are aging fast. Contending teams such as the Heat and Bulls and whoever has LeBron would be interesting in Allen's services at a mid level exception. Side note: Allen did just sign his kids of for school again next year in Boston.
David Lee- Staying with Knicks- 10%
Lee is a product of the Knicks run and gun system and you can not convince him that his is not. Having said that Lee will still get paid this off season probably picking up between $40-50 million. Coming off his best season where he average 20 and 12 and made the All-Star game. Side not: Prior to the D'antoni era Lee's best season was 10 and 10
Luis Scola- Staying with Rockets- 75%
Scola is now 30 and at the end of his rookie contract. He average 16 and 9 this past season which was his best number in the NBA. With the Rockets trading away Carl Landry at the deadline it is almost set in stone that they will re-sign Scola. The only way i see him leaving is if the Nets throw him a contract worth $60 million.
John Salmons- Staying with the Bucks- 45%
Salmons has always shown he has the ability to be a teams best player but at the same time has shown that he is easily disposable. I doubt the Bucks will throw him a big deal which is why i think Salmons will test the market, but eventually i think he will re-sign with the Bucks.
Other Free Agents:
Josh Childress
Raymond Felton
Shaq
Al Harrington
Josh Howard
Matt Barnes
Channing Frye