May Musings

The NFL has always done a great job at capturing the attention of their fanbase on a year-round basis despite having the shortest season of the four major American professional sports. Just days ago the NFL sent waves around the country by announcing that the new co-owned Giants/Jets stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey would be the site of the 2014 Super Bowl. The story seemed to garner as much, if not more attention, then the NBA Eastern and Western Conference Finals. With just days until the NHL drops the puck on the Stanley Cup Finals, the NFL threw a media wrench into the mix.

Putting a Super Bowl in New York is pure genius, but it's incredible how difficult it was to overcome the "cold weather" stigma. The record low temperature for a Super Bowl at kick-off is 39 degrees, and Super Bowl forty-eight in New York will likely break that record, but the looming threat of another "snowpocalypse" should be the furthest thing from people's mind. This past winter was the worst that the New York region has seen in almost fifteen years. Record snowfall like they had this winter is unlikely to happen again for a while. It was not the norm.

Putting a Super Bowl six miles away from a city of 18 million people is just good business. There's more to do in New York then in any other city in the world. From Broadway, bars, independent movie theatres, an array of superb restaurants, American landmarks and shops, New York is the perfect place for a one-time cold weather Super Bowl. The Super Bowl is a championship game and it sells itself--putting it in the biggest market in the world is great business strategy.

And again, how often do we see NFL teams playing in seventy degree weather with superb weather? The elements are a huge part of the game, and the teams that are able to separate themselves in November and December are the ones who play in January and into early February. Even in 2006 with harsh rain falling the Colts aerial assault managed to light up a very good Chicago defense.

But moving on from a cold Super Bowl that isn't going to happen for another four years, it's been an interesting month for the NFL in what is usually the most boring 31 days for the sport. Santana Moss may get suspended for HGH use, Byron Leftwich is holding firm as the Steeler's early season replacement for Ben Roethlisberger, and of course the array of rumors about guys "breaking out" or looking "washed up" start to come out despite the fact that it's not even summer yet and teams are in voluntary non-contact drills almost exclusively.

But amidst all the muck you may have read about certain players, here is what you should buy and sell.

BUY

1. Kenny Britt as the Titans leading receiver in 2010.
After a disappointing off-season where Britt first showed up to drills out-of-shape and facing negative publicity from his pre-NFL career, Britt seems to have turned the corner and coach Jeff Fisher sees a noticeable difference in his work ethic. Still, Britt is third on the depth chart in May behind Nate Washington and Justin Gage. By August I have no doubt that Britt will be the Titans number one receiver. He'll likely be the only Titans receiver to top 1000 yards assuming Vince Young builds on a positive 2009 campaign.

2. Chris Johnson's new contract.
The Titans are a little worried right now about Johnson's shelf life so it's unlikely to see Johnson taking 322 carries again in 2010. Even so, he's entering just the third year of his deal and he was clearly the best running back in 2009. Johnson has leverage to hold out after the two seasons he's had, and Tennessee doesn't have a viable replacement for him should he follow through with his threats. It may not be a long-term extension, but the Titans are going to have to cough up around seven or eight million a year.

3. The Bills offense falling flat on it's face again.
There is still no viable receiving threat outside of Lee Evans, the offensive line is exceptionally young and currently very unhealthy. The quarterback situation is no better than it was a year ago with Trent Edwards currently penciled in as the starter with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brian Brohm nipping at his ears. It's ugly and it's going to stay that way. Gailey worked wonders with Tyler Thigpen, but this is still a tall order. The Bills can't seriously expect rookie C.J. Spiller to be their most reliable offensive weapon.

4. Terrell Owens remaining unsigned.
It's very simple. He's 36 years old in a league that values youth. He's coming off the worst season of his career and he isn't going to get paid like a top-flight starter if that's what he's holding out for. His best days are in the rearview mirror and too many teams see him as a locker room problem.

5. Darrelle Revis' new contract.
The Jets are going to explore new contracts with Nick Mangold, David Harris, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, and maybe Holmes, Edwards, or Cromartie depending on the type of season that they have, but Darrelle Revis is getting a new contract. I'm guessing a six-year deal worth around 100 million dollars. The Jets want him for the rest of his career and he's valuable enough to be a 100 million dollar player.


SELL

1. Darrius Heyward-Bey is not going to have a break-out year.
The Raiders are still a poor pass blocking team, their strength still lies in their depth at running back and their run blocking, and Heyward-Bey is working with a new quarterback. Please.

2. Knowshon Moreno is not going to break out either.
With Ryan Clady likely missing all of training camp and games in September, a lack of depth in the interior, and Moreno's fatigue problems from a year ago, in a crowded backfield, with a coach who loves committees, I can't see Moreno breaking 1000 yards.

3. The New York Jets winning the AFC East
Just as a whole. By far the most overrated off-season in the NFL. Could the acquisitions pay off? Absolutely. And if they do, watch out. But the Jets gambled far too much this off-season. Cromartie is a ball-hawk, but he's been battling hip injuries for the past two seasons and even when he's healthy he doesn't like to tackle and is a major liability because he's a gambler. The Jets replaced Kerry Rhodes with five-time concussed former Brown Brodney Pool. They will be without Santonio Holmes for the first four games, and have a plethora of one-year deals. They look an awful lot like an NHL team right now. Oh and as much as I dislike Alan Faneca, right now second round pick Vladamir Ducasse is penciled in as his replacement. Ducasse has major upside, but he's a project at this point in his career. In the short-term, it's not going to be a smooth transition. This is a wildcard team at best.

4. The entire Bears offense.
Mike Martz's offense is about vertical threats, great offensive line protection, and a blocking-first tight end. Does any part of that fit with the Bears offensively? Their best weapon is Greg Olsen who is likely going to be horribly underused in 2010. Cutler is behind one of the worst pass blocking lines in football with project receivers (though Knox and Hester do have high upside in this offense). It all comes down to that porous offensive line and a GM/coach combination that made desperation moves this off-season in an effort to save their collective jobs. Wave goodbye to Jerry Angelo and Lovie Smith.

5. Brett Favre's 2010 season.
He's not going to retire, but 2010 is not going to be anywhere near as good as 2009. Favre is coming off ankle surgery, he's probably going to do very little in training camp, and he's another year older. Favre's 2007 and 2009 campaigns are going to be seen as a blip on the radar screen. Anomalies for a quarterback who is well past his prime. He's not going to be able to handle a workload like that again. Will the numbers be bad? Probably not, but they won't even sniff his 2009 numbers.