Key Acquisitions -- RB C.J. Spiller
Key Departures -- WR Terrell Owens
Bills fans don't have much of a reason to get excited for 2010. The outlook isn't any better then it has been for the past decade. The Bills don't lack talent on the defensive side of the ball, but they're in the middle of a transition to the 3-4 and they are nowhere close to having all of the pieces. Nose tackles don't develop overnight, so don't expect second round pick Torrell Troup or misfit Kyle Williams to do the job.
Strike one.
They Bills did nothing to address what may be the most depressing quarterback situation in the league. Somehow, someway, despite all odds...Trent Edwards got another opportunity to be a starter. Right now he's the clear favorite to beat out Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brian Brohm. But that's simply because Fitzpatrick is nothing more than a career back-up and Brohm is completely unproven. You know what you're getting with Edwards--David Carr. In other words--someone who is incapable of moving the ball down field.
Strike two.
Oh and then there's the small fact that somehow the Bills failed yet again to address their offensive line. It's just so ugly from left to right. Demtrius Bell is going to start at left tackle if he's healthy because Buffalo thinks that Karl Malone's son can be the next Jason Peters. 12 penalties, 18 QB pressures, 7 QB hits, and 5 sacks...in eight games. That's so, so, so bad. The undersized Andy Levitre is still the Bills starting left guard. I didn't like him from the get-go, and I can't see the left side of the line succeeding at all this year. Center Geoff Hangartner allowed 16 QB pressures, two QB hits, and 3 sacks. No center gave up more pressures and only two more allowed more sacks. At right guard Eric Wood, who should be playing center, is coming off a horrible leg injury where he broke his tibia and fibula. He isn't sure if he'll be ready for Training Camp, and if he is, what kind of workload he'll be able to handle. And then there is Cornell Green at right tackle. He had 14 penalties last year in 12 games (wow) and allowed 18 QB pressures, six QB hits, and five QB sacks. I'd say those numbers were moderately respectable, but at right tackle and only playing 12 games no way those numbers should be that high.
Strike three.
So do I even need to say buy or sell?
Well here we go anyway.
1. C.J. Spiller will be a major impact in the Bills offense. SELL.
It really seems like the Bills are set on keeping Marshawn Lynch. Congratulations, you now have selected a utility player ninth overall. So Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch are likely going to split the early downs with Spiller lining up wide and moving to the backfield on obvious passing downs. But Spiller is still a rookie and while he's a great home run hitter his role in Buffalo is not going to be defined, he's going to be running behind a terrible offensive line and playing with terrible quarterbacks. If Spiller was predominantly coming out of the backfield he actually might catch upwards of 40 passes because Edwards loves to check down, but Spiller lining up wide and using his speed is going to immediately disqualify him getting thrown to. The Bills are a disaster.
2. Moving to a 3-4 defense. SELL.
In the long run this may very well work out. Torrell Troup, Dwan Edwards, and Alex Carrington might actually be a decent 3-4 front in a few years. Marcus Stroud is going to be playing five-tech for the first time in his career and he's no spring chicken. Major red flag. Kyle Williams is going to have to pick up the slack for rookie Torrell Troup at nose tackle and he is totally undersized for the position. Is Aaron Schobel going to ever make up his mind on retirement? Can Aaron Maybin successfully convert to a 3-4 OLB? Will Paul Posluszny ever stay healthy? This front seven is full of nothing but question marks.
3. Chan Gailey's offensive genius. SELL.
I don't care what he did in Kansas City with Tyler Thigpen...he had mobility as well as Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez. Gailey has a quarterback who can't move in Trent Edwards, an offensive line that can't block, and three legitimate offensive weapons (two of which are running backs). He's going to have to find a way to get the Bills weapons on the field at the same time, but they'll be sacrificing a lot of speed in that case. There's no way to get Lynch, Spiller, and Jackson all on the field and not have it impact you negatively. Gailey may actually be better off with Fitzpatrick. He's smart and mobile and not afraid to take shots downfield even though he doesn't have the talent to play the position. It's a disaster.
4. James Hardy as the number two receiver. SELL.
Wow talk about being thin at receiver. Hardy has 10 career catches in 16 games. People fawned over his measureables and forgot you actually have to, you know, know how to run routes, fool defensive backs, and catch the ball as a receiver. How could so many people have missed that? (end sarcasm). This is embarrassing.
5. The Bills being on the clock by late October. BUY.
The only reason this team MIGHT not be making travel arrangements for Jake Locker by Halloween is if the Bills ball-hawking secondary keeps them in games by forcing turnovers. If they can repeat what they did last year with Byrd, Wilson, and Whitner at safety mixed with a fully healthy Leodis McKelvin the Bills should be able to force a few turnovers through the air. If they can't...oh it's going to be really ugly. Chan Gailey may not last more than a year.
On the whole you can just go ahead and sell the Bills.
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