We'll start in the AFC East--specifically in Foxboro, Massachusetts.
New England Patriots
2009 Finish -- 10-6, 1st in AFC East, lost in wild card round to Baltimore
Key Acquisitions -- CB Devin McCourtey, ILB Brandon Spikes
Key Departures -- TE Ben Watson, LB Adalius Thomas
It was a quiet off-season in New England. The biggest splash they made was re-signing stud man-to-man corner Leigh Bodden to a four-year 22 million dollar deal--a very nice deal for a terrific man corner. Otherwise, New England said goodbye to Ben Watson and Adalius Thomas--both of whom weren't huge losses for New England.
The biggest loss was injury related. WR Wes Welker is going to probably start the season on the PUP thanks to devastating knee and shoulder injuries in the final week of the season against Houston. Randy Moss is in the final year of his deal, and likely won't be re-signed after it's over, which means that New England's window may be closing, because offensively they are much thinner then they have been in years past.
So--let's play buy or sell with the New England Patriots.
1. WR Julian Edelman will come into his own in Welker's slot role. BUY.
Edelman is a converted quarterback and a project, but last year showed flashes of ability in that New England spread. While he won't put up Welker production, he'll be a reliable target for Brady over the middle, which will cut down on the amount of attention Moss will receive over the top.
2. WR Brandon Tate will emerge as the split-end. SELL.
All I hear from the New England press is the rave about Brandon Tate. He comes from a pro-style offense, but Tate came into the league after suffering a severe knee injury his senior year of college at UNC. He only played in two games last season and didn't catch a pass. I don't have high hopes for any of New England's options at split-end. If it's not Tate, the Patriots will have to rely on either David Patten or Torry Holt, and they may not even be able to put up the obligatory Patriots numbers. It will also be interesting to see if Tom Brady's return to Earth last season had more to do with recovering from his injury or not having Josh McDaniels calling the plays.
3. Tom Brady's new contract. BUY
This is not as easy as you might think. Brady's numbers were statistically impressive in 2009, but he definitely didn't look like himself for the majority of the season. He didn't look particularly effective against Baltimore in the playoffs either. Going on 33 and a reconstructive knee surgery to boot, the Patriots might not be as willing to jump at giving Brady 100 million dollars despite what Bob Kraft says. The most likely scenario here is that Brady gets a shorter deal--around four years worth close to 70 million dollars. He'll likely earn more then Eli Manning recieved (average of 16.25 million per year).
4. The defensive front seven...SELL.
New England should be able to stop the run in 2010. They've got really nice depth at inside linebacker with Mayo, Spikes, and Gary Guyton. Plus, it always helps having one of the best nose tackles in football anchoring your 3-4. But will New England be able to get after the quarterback? Their top pass rusher is Tully Banta-Cain, but he's not the type of player who can command double teams. His best asset is being used in creative blitz situations or one-on-one--in short he's not a number one rusher. The Patriots drafted Jermaine Cunningham in the second round, which should show that they're just about ready to give up on Pierre Woods and Shawn Crable. Derrick Burgess re-signed for one year with New England, but I don't expect him to make much of an impact. New England's pass rush is going to be enormously inconsistent, if not well below average in 2010.
5. Has the game passed coach Bill Belichick by? SELL.
No, actually Belichick has done more than most to keep the evolution of the NFL moving forward. His dedication to a spread attack in New England has opened the door for college quarterbacks that never had a shot before--and now we see Denver taking a guy like Tim Tebow. If Tebow had been a senior in the 2006 draft, he likely wouldn't have gone in the first two rounds. The game hasn't passed Belichick by, he just needs to learn to let his coordinators call the plays.
6. Are the Patriots a legitimate contender in 2010? BUY.
Tom Brady can focus on the game instead of his rehab, Randy Moss seems as focused as ever, the Patriots are much younger and faster defensively, and they still have one of the best coaches in NFL History. Are there concerns? Certainly, the Patriots have to get Logan Mankins under contract. He's arguably one of the best three guards in football. New England also needs to find a way to manufacture a pass rush, because New England's great depth is countered only by their lack of an elite pass rusher. A return to the post-season is likely, and this may be their swan song--one final AFC East title, but it's going to happen.
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