Buy or Sell: Indianapolis Colts

The Colts might be in trouble with multiple hold-outs, but they still have the only man that really matters--Peyton Manning.

2009 Finish -- 14-2, lost in Super Bowl to New Orleans
Key Acquisitions -- DE Jerry Hughes
Key Departures -- OG Ryan Lilja, S Marlin Jackson

Not much in terms of turnover, and no surprises, the Colts didn't do much in free agency. With unstable labor-ownership and a team that never does much in free agency it wasn't likely they were going to do much this year--especially with a looming contract extension for Peyton Manning.

1. Peyton Manning will continue to be the best quarterback in football. BUY.
This one really isn't that hard. Quarterbacks are starting to play longer into their careers thanks to safety rules and Manning's the most mechanically sound quarterback in the league. Even when his physical attributes start to deteriorate, Manning will continue to put up nice numbers and win games because he's also the most football intelligent player in the league. Nothing is going to change. Manning was without Anthony Gonzalez most of last year and made do with Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. The result? Now the Colts have perhaps the deepest wide receiving corps. in football. Manning is going to put up enormous numbers again. Manning will almost certainly pass John Elway for 3rd all-time on the passing yards list and needs 34 touchdowns (certainly a possibility for Manning) to become the third player all-time to throw for 400 touchdown passes.

2. Reggie Wayne's holdout will last into training camp. SELL.
Wayne knows that with the labor dispute and the need to give Peyton Manning a new contract that he has little shot of getting a new deal this year. If the league agrees to a new CBA though, Wayne could get the new contract he wants sooner. Wayne knows that playing for the Colts gives him a chance to win a Super Bowl every single season so he's not going to hold out of Training Camp.

3. Robert Mathis' holdout is going to be a problem. BUY.
Mathis had 9.5 sacks and five forced fumbles in 14 games last season. But the Colts drafted Jerry Hughes in the first round. It's not his pass rushing skills that will be sorely missed--the Colts have a plethora of good pass rushers and anytime Dwight Freeney is lining up on one side it makes things all the easier for the guy opposite him. But, Mathis was ranked as the best run defender in Indianapolis last season by Pro Football Focus. He had 27 stops and just 2 missed tackles all season. Indianapolis can't prioritize Mathis over Manning and Wayne--especially after drafting Jerry Hughes. Mathis likely won't hold out into the regular season, but he does have some leverage here--even if it's diminished by the drafting of Jerry Hughes.


4. Peyton Manning doesn't need a good running game to be effective. BUY.
Manning has now gone three years without a legitimate running game. The Colts can win that division easily without the running game (especially seeing as Manning routinely turns AFC South secondaries into swiss cheese), but they will need some semblance of a running game if they expect to win the Super Bowl this year. There re some awesome secondaries in the NFC with great pass rushers. If the Colts are back in the Super Bowl they've got to take some pressure off of Manning.

5. Peyton Manning needs another Super Bowl to validate his career. SELL.
No, he doesn't. He's got one. He needed deeper playoff runs to validate his career after the Super Bowl, and he got that last year. Manning has nothing left to prove. 50,000 passing yards and closing in on 3rd all-time, 366 touchdown passes (in 2-3 years he'll be 2nd all-time in that department), a career YPA of 7.8, and has never missed a game in his career.

Yeah there's nothing left for Peyton Manning to prove.