Draft season is just getting underway. This is my look at the 2011 quarterbacks.
1. Cameron Newton*, Auburn
In my opinion the highest upside quarterback to come out this year, Newton has Roethlisberger like size and athleticism, a powerful arm, but only average accuracy. His mechanics are surprisingly well formed, but coming out of a gimmick spread offense Newton will have an adjustment period. Teams will also have to take a long look at any potential character concerns, but Newton looks very much like Big Ben incarnate. He's not going to succeed right away, but if a team nurtures Newton's untapped natural ability they'll be very pleased with the results.
2. Ryan Mallet*, Arkansas
Mallett’s 6’7” frame and powerful arm scream franchise quarterback, but his middle of the road mechanics, poor release, and disappointing performances in the two minute drill scream of a guy who may lack the necessary killer instinct to play quarterback. Certainly Mallett loves pushing the ball downfield, but he struggles with judgment. Mallett’s throws are almost never spot on. Often times he puts too much velocity on the ball (Sugar Bowl vs. Ohio State) and at other times I find him too trusting of his receivers as he lofts cream puffs downfield (South Carolina game). Mallett will also be prone to taking some big hits. He’s a statue in the pocket with a slow release. Some coach will take the risk on this though and try and transform him into a franchise quarterback.
3. Colin Kaepernick, Nevada
As noted yesterday Kaepernick has first round talent and has great collegiate production, but a strange pistol offense and a long release lead the list of concerns about Kaepernick as an NFL quarterback. Still, after his great Senior Bowl practices it’s unlikely Kaepernick falls out of the first round.
4. Blaine Gabbert*, Missouri
One of the most overhyped prospects in 2011, Blaine Gabbert is likely to be one franchises really big mistake or incredibly mediocre disappointment. Gabbert has NFL size and an NFL arm, but struggled to produce in Missouri’s gimmick pass-happy offense that does not require the ability to read a defense–something Gabbert had better learn at the NFL and learn it quickly. Gabbert also has a tendency to turn into Captain Checkdown. Whether it’s because his downfield accuracy is so spotty or because he simply doesn’t like throwing downfield, Gabbert failed to push the ball downfield all season.
5. Jake Locker, Washington
Possibly the Jevan Snead of 2011, Locker’s inconsistency got him blasted at this year’s Senior Bowl. The natural talent is there, but he’s incredibly raw. Locker has the legs and the arm to go with the size. He also played under a very good quaterback tutor in Steve Sarkisian. But Locker’s mechanics are still a major work in progress and his footwork in particular needs some serious coaching. Locker’s stock has fallen well out of round one, but some coach is going to take him in the 2nd or 3rd and think they can coach him up.
6. Nathan Enderle, Idaho
A four year starter with superb size and a nice arm, Nathan Enderle looks the part of the franchise quarterback, and much like Jay Cutler at Vandy shouldered the load of a program that was too heavy to carry alone. They only had three wins in Enderle’s first two seasons, but Idaho went 14-9 with Enderle under center in 2009-10 and 2010-11. 60 interceptions in four years will create a lot of questions for this mid-round prospect, but Enderle played on a team with a very sporadic running game (at the best of times) and still put together a decent senior season. His size and arm and ability to play with lesser talent will definitely intrigue one NFL team.
7. Andy Dalton, TCU
Dalton possesses an above average arm and a nice set of wheels, but he’s another guy who played in an offense that limits quarterback development. Dalton possesses average size for a quarterback, and is likely nothing more than a long-term back-up.
8. Greg McElroy, Alabama
Much like Dalton, McElroy looks like a long-term back-up. He has everything you want from an NFL quarterback–except the physical talent to play the position. With arguably one of the weakest arms in this class, McElroy projects as nothing more than long-term backup.
9. Tyrod Taylor, Virginia Tech
Taylor’s awesome senior season ended with a tough loss to Stanford, but Taylor proved that he could be a quarterback at the next level. I’d like to see some team give Taylor a shot. His improvements across the board in decision making, accuracy, and even his arm scream NFL to me, but if Taylor doesn’t play quarterback full-time, he’ll likely be a dangerous utility player in the mold of Brad Smith.
10. Pat Devlin, Delaware
A former Penn State recruit, Devlin failed to beat out Darryl Clark and transferred. He’s got the NFL arm strength and size, but questions about his pocket presence will make him a mid-round pick.
11. T.J. Yates, North Carolina
Yates has shown solid arm strength and really good pocket presence, but I don’t believe for a second he’s truly 6’3”. He looks 6’1” at the tallest and probably won’t be able to be a starter at the next level because of his size.
12. Mike Hartline, Kentucky
Playing out of a spread offense, Hartline had a really strong senior season. The 6’6” 210 pound quarterback took great care of the ball, showed solid arm strength, and overall solid grasp of the game. He needs to pack on some weight, but he’s another guy who may be worth a late-round flier.
13. Christian Ponder, Florida State
Ponder’s got the wheels, but his accuracy is largely overrated and his arm strength has been vastly reduced after multiple shoulder surgeries. He’s likely headed for a back-up role in the NFL.
14. Ricky Stanzi, Iowa
He’s your classic Big Ten quarterback. Okay arm strength, accurate, but won’t wow you in any one area. His improvement in 2010 was astounding as he cut his interceptions down from 15 to 6. He’s got the size to be an NFL quarterback, but likely his arm will be what holds him back.
15. Ryan Colburn, Fresno State
Colburn put together two decent seasons replacing Tom Brandstater, but with an average arm and already 24 years old his stock is going to stay low.
16. Jerrod Johnson, Texas A&M
Johnson looks the part at 6’5” 250 pounds and possessing an absolute cannon. Johnson also has a nice feel for pressure and when to move in the pocket, but his bad mechanics and trust in his arm lead to more interceptions then a team will want to deal with.
17. Kevin Riley, California
He has average size, an average arm, and was pretty average in Jeff Tedford’s system. There isn’t much about Riley that screams anything other than training camp body.
18. Adam Weber, Minnesota
Has a really nice arm and NFL size, but his leadership is lacking and his accuracy is pretty awful.
19. Ben Chappell, Indiana
An interesting prospect with nice size and a nice arm, Chappell played in a multi-look offense, but is sort of a poor man’s Blaine Gabbert.
20. Scott Tolzein, Wisconsin
All you need to know? Brooks Bollinger Part II.
21. Mitch Mustain, USC
Unlikely to be the next Matt Cassel. Mustain seemed to lack leadership from the get-go at Arkansas and spent his last three years failing to beat out underclassmen quarterbacks at USC.
22. Taylor Potts, Texas Tech
You know the book on Texas Tech QB’s already. Lots of accuracy and no arm strength and no ability to read defenses.
23. Carson Coffman, Kansas State
Showed nice accuracy and poise, but needs to tack on weight and probably doesn’t have the arm to make it in the NFL.
24. Zach Frazier, Connecticut
There are no real redeeming qualities about Frazier as an NFL prospect.
25. Josh Nesbitt, Georgia Tech
Unlikely to stay at this position after playing GT’s triple option.
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