Tuesday, April 20, 2010

2010 Mock Draft (April 21st)

Mock draft by Alex Wiederspiel

Projected Trades:
Houston trades picks 20, 51, and 118 for picks 14 and 60.
Baltimore trades picks 25 and 57 for picks 18 and 82.


1. St. Louis Rams – Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
It comes down to simple math. The Rams have five wins over the past three seasons, a new majority owner waiting in the wings, a franchise value loss of 250 billion dollars in three years, and no long-term commitment at quarterback. With a prospect that is being compared to Troy Aikman this is a no-brainer for the badly struggling Rams. Billy Devaney has done a lot of posturing which makes me think he wants to raise the value of Bradford and see if he can force a trade up. I don't think he's going to pull off such a feat, but Cleveland is definitely a team that could make the move up come draft day. As a player, I love Bradford. He's got all the physical tools, the football IQ, and he's a leader. But does he have that killer instinct like Ben Roethlisberger? Is Sam Bradford a technician who will push the ball downfield? That's, I think, the biggest question mark about Bradford right now and the only reason I wouldn't make him the first overall pick if I were a GM.

2. Detroit Lions – Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
The writing is on the wall. This is a very deep offensive tackle class and while the Lions want to protect Stafford, they can pick up an impact defensive player at the same time. Supposedly the Lions made it very clear that they were leaning towards Suh at the season ticket holders dinner just days ago and while I think Suh has the potential to slide on draft day if GM's are afraid of his history of knee problems. He's not going to make it out of the Top 6, but he's probably not going any higher then 2nd overall.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
There have been rumors floating around that Tampa Bay may not be as smitten with Donald Penn as they were two years ago and may be looking to upgrade. Russell Okung would be the logical choice, but I think that the Bucs will follow a similar philosophy to the Lions. This is a deep offensive tackle class so going with an impact defensive tackle may be the best move here. McCoy is 6-foot-4, 295 pounds with a frame that can support more weight. He's very stout at the point of attack, plays with great leverage, uses his hands well, and gets terrific penetration. He should be a superb under tackle in Tampa.

4. Washington Redskins – Trent Williams, LT, Oklahoma
This should be the first upset of the day. While Russell Okung is the best offensive tackle in this year's class, Trent Williams best fits the zone blocking scheme in Washington and the Redskins are going to struggle to trade out of this spot. Even more so, they're going to wonder how far they should trade down. Inevitably, it'll make the most sense to bite the bullet on the athletic run blocking tackle from Norman.

5. Kansas City Chiefs – Russell Okung, LT, Oklahoma State
The Chiefs just found a pot of gold in this year's best tackle Russell Okung. He's a good tackle, though its arguable that he's not as good of a prospect as some of the other top tackles taken in the past five years (Ferguson, Thomas, Long, Oher). That being said Okung is a very well-rounded player with a great frame and very long arms. He has the measureables required for the position. Kansas City will likely slot Branden Alberts over to left guard (his natural position) with this move.

6. Seattle Seahawks – C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
Another big upset and not a pick I would make, but Pete Carroll is said to be a big fan of Spiller's and former Jets employee Pat Kirwan who worked with Pete Carroll has been stating for a while now that Carroll is going to take Spiller 6th overall.

7. Cleveland Browns – Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
Well the Browns just got a gift. Berry is the best defensive player in this draft, but safeties are undervalued on draft day. Berry has pro-style experience thanks to Monte Kiffin making him the most pro ready safety in the draft combined with his superb athleticism, fluid hips and backpedal, and great ball skills. Berry can also play in the box. He may be the best safety prospect since Darren Woodson.

8. Oakland Raiders – Bruce Campbell, LT, Maryland
Well the scuttlebut from Michael Smith is that Idaho guard Mike Iupati is going to be the choice here, but for now I'm going to stick with the other classic Al Davis selection--an athletic behemoth with bad technique who excelled at the combine. Campbell has very long arms, but some teams are wary of his poor pass blocking skills (as well they should). He's a project, and Oakland can't afford to take on any more high potential projects, but that's the way Al Davis drafts.

9. Buffalo Bills – Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
McNabb going to Washington was the best thing for Buffalo. Unless the Raiders make a surprise move for Clausen, he's likely to get to the Bills at 9th overall. Clausen is a pro-ready quarterback with a terrific arm, great decision making, leadership skills, but possibly a limited ceiling. Clausen also doesn't seem to have a killer instinct, as he's failed on comeback drives several times in his collegiate career. There are times where his mechanics tend to get a little sloppy and he'll throw side-armed, but most of his problems are correctable and he could be starting by the middle of the season.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars – Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
Derrick Harvey has been granted a vote of confidence by the Jaguars as their starting left end, but the Jags need a blind side pass rusher to try and accomplish what Jacksonville has been trying to accomplish for three years now--improving their ability to get to a quarterback. Morgan is a superb athlete, plays with great leverage and initial burst, and has good football instincts. He may not be a 14 or 15 sack type of player, but he should be able to routinely pick up 9-12. He's the type of player who if he played for 10 seasons might make the Pro Bowl three times. He's going to be very good, but not great.

11. Denver Broncos (from Chicago) – Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama
The big thumper is a tailor made 3-4 inside linebacker. McClain is a powerful hitter who plays the run with discipline and has a downhill, attacking style when he blitzes. This might be a little too logical for the Broncos though. They may prefer to bring in another wide receiver with "character" issues named Dez Bryant.

12. Miami Dolphins – Jason Pierre-Paul, OLB, South Florida
Bill Parcells has a minor obsession with raw, under-producing, uber talented players like Pierre-Paul. The craziest thing is that Parcells has been able to mold these players into special pass rushers. Will it be different with Pierre-Paul? It's they type of question only time can tell. It's one of those boom-bust picks that always splits draftniks right down the middle. I don't like JPP, but I like his chances in Miami.

13. San Francisco 49ers – Joe Haden, CB, Florida
Joe Haden has all the potential to be as good as Darrelle Revis. They have an extremely similar, physical press style, good ball skills, fluid hips, and terrific closing speed to make up for an overall lack of superior athleticism. But is Joe Haden as dedicated as Darrelle Revis? Revis watches game film of every receiver he's going to face in the off-season to look at their tendencies when running routes. If Haden's as dedicated as Darrelle Revis, he's going to make the teams that passed on him very upset.

14. Houston Texans (from Denver through Seattle) – Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee
This is my first projected trade up. Houston is close. They're very close. They need a more physical runner in the backfield and a lane-clogging nose tackle on defense (their secondary could use a make-over as well, but it's not a priority). Williams may be a one-year wonder, but he's a one-year wonder because he flourished in Monte Kiffin's pro-style defense. Williams is a stout run defender who plays with great leverage. He needs to prove he's more than a one-year wonder, but with talented players like Mario Williams, Amobi Okoye, Antonio Smith, and Connor Barwin gracing the defensive line mixed with a linebacking corp of Ryans, Cushing, and Diles the Texans can make an argument for the best front seven in the NFL. Seattle realizes that they can grab one of the five (or six) first round tackles later in the 1st.

15. New York Giants – Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan
Osi Umenyiora is likely on his way out of New York. He signed a big 6 year 41 million dollar contract in 2005, and has played half of that contract. At only 28 years old, but unhappy in New York, some team is going to give a mid-round pick to acquire him. The Giants have made a living the last three years off of having the league's premier pass rush. With Dan Williams gone, the Giants look to replenish what was once the strongest part of their unit defensively. I'm a big fan of Graham's in either a 3-4 or a 4-3. He's very similar to Steelers OLB LaMarr Woodley in playing style, but is an even more disciplined run defender.

16. Tennessee Titans – Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
Tennessee will explore trade down options here, but inevitably they'll trade back into the first for a pass rusher or up in the second for one. Wilson is not a complete corner, but he's one of the premier ball hawks in this draft. He's a guy who would be an excellent compliment to Cortland Finnegan with his playmaking ability. The Titans have to find some semblance of a pass rush in round two.

17. San Francisco 49ers (from Carolina) – Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
I'm not Bulaga's biggest fan, but he's a hard-nosed disciplined tackle who is a superb run blocker. He's ceiling is low, but he's a safe bet at right tackle in the NFL, possibly maybe even a left guard. Joe Staley should stay at left tackle for San Francisco with Bulaga on the right in a run-heavy offense.

18. Baltimore Ravens (from Pittsburgh) – Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
Bryant continues to slide, so Baltimore, despite acquiring Anquan Boldin, moves up to grab him anyway. The 18th overall pick won't command a ton of money. Jeremy Maclin was drafted 19th overall a year ago and makes an average of 3.1 million per year. Bryant would likely make a little more than that, but not by much (think 3.25 to 3.5). Boldin isn't a receiver who can open up the Ravens offense. He's Derrick Mason in miniature, and with the amount of wear and tear on his body, I'm not sure how long his career is really going to last. Bryant is a necessary addition as insurance for Mason (who is near retirement) and for Boldin (who may be closer to it then people realize). Pittsburgh knows they can get one of the top two guard prospects even moving down to 25th so they pick up extra value in the process.

19. Atlanta Falcons – Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri
I do not think there is a safer bet on draft day then Sean Weatherspoon to Atlanta. General Manager Thomas Dimitroff does a great job of drafting the best player available at a position of reasonable need. Weatherspoon's stock is right in this area, and he's arguably just as good a prospect as Aaron Curry was, but lacks the hype. Weatherspoon himself has said that of all the teams he's talked to Atlanta has been the most interested and he gets the best vibe from them. Seeing as they have a gaping hole at weakside linebacker ready for Weatherspoon to come in day one, he's an early candidate for DROY.

20. Seattle Seahawks (from Houston) – Charles Brown, LT, USC
Seattle picks up some value and Pete Carroll gets his ultra-talented tackle from USC in the process. Charles Brown is going to have a great NFL career if he can do one thing--keep his weight on. Like D'Brickashaw Ferguson early in his career, Brown struggles with being able to maintain his weight, often falling under 300 pounds. NFL diet gurus were able to help Ferguson maintain his playing weight of 312 and they shouldn't have a problem with Brown hanging around the 305 mark.

21. Cincinnati Bengals – Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho
While Iupati is a project as a pass blocker, he's one of the most dominant run blockers to come out in recent years. He projects immediately as a starting guard, probably on the right side because of his pass protection woes, but he will be an immediate boost to a team's running game. If he lines up on the same side as Andre Smith, beware.

22. New England Patriots – Ryan Mathews, RB, Fresno State
Jared Odrick is going to be a strong possibility here, but I think that Belichick realizes he can't rely on any member of the backs in his committee. If Houston stays put at 20th overall he's likely going to wind up in Houston, but regardless here we are. The Patriots have a bunch of needs on both sides of the ball, but the potential for a better rushing attack is there. Sebastian Vollmer should be a full-time starter next season and that'll greatly increase New England's offensive line play. Mathews should improve the running game by all means as he's a terrific vision runner who runs low to the ground and has nice size to boot.

23. Green Bay Packers – Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
If there is one team that can capture the immense talents of Anthony Davis it's going to be the Green Bay Packers--one of the most stable organizations in football with an offensive mastermind running the show. Davis has the athleticism to play left tackle, but he'd be dominant on the right side, and will likely replace Mark Tauscher somewhere down the line this season. Clifton and Tauscher aren't going to last forever in Green Bay, so drafting a tackle in the first two rounds is crucial. Especially since it's likely that one of them finally hits the decline this season.

24. Philadelphia Eagles – Everson Griffen, DE, USC
I'm not Everson Griffen's biggest fan, but he's very similar to Carlos Dunlap in that some team is going to see a wide range of potential and take him despite his underwhelming collegiate production. In fact, it's the same way that teams saw Lawrence Jackson whose production steadily declined while still in school. Teams have a tendency to love Pete Carroll's former players because of the style of play at USC--like a pro team.

25. Pittsburgh Steelers (from Baltimore) – Maurkice Pouncey, C/G, Florida
Pouncey is one of the top interior line prospects in a while. He's incredibly athletic, very strong, and despite his 6-5 frame plays with great leverage. He's got a terrific first step off of the ball and can play in either a zone blocking or man blocking scheme. I personally think Pouncey's best position is center, but at either center or guard, he will be an upgrade for the Steelers.

26. Arizona Cardinals – Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas
Not a guy that I'm really high on, but Kindle has a lot of experience already playing linebacker at Texas. He's an extremely athletic player with a great burst, but his production as a senior fell. He posted double digit tackles for loss and sacks as a junior, but as a senior managed just six sacks. The production is what really knocks him from being the top rush linebacker stock wise and it's a valid concern. If only Jason Pierre-Paul were receiving the same treatment.

27. Dallas Cowboys – Earl Thomas, S, Texas
Mike Mayock's favorite safety could go anywhere from 13 to falling out of the first round. Third year sophomores have a tendency to be hard to project come draft day, but it's a good bet that the Dallas Cowboys are the team that's going to take him. With Ken Hamlin gone, the Cowboys need to find someone to pair with Gerald Sensabaugh at strong safety. Thomas is the best pure cover safety and has the athleticism to play corner.

28. San Diego Chargers – Terrence Cody, NT, Alabama
I've never been one of his biggest fans, but Mount Cody was much better as a senior then he was as a junior. He looked like a real football player as opposed to just a fat guy. His instincts were better, his ability to use leverage was better, his hand use was better...everything was better. But does that mean that he's going to be a legit NFL NT? It all comes down to coaching. Certainly it doesn't hurt to have Ron Rivera as your defensive coordinator (and now that he's well versed in the 3-4, it is even better).

29. New York Jets – Jared Odrick, DE, Penn State
With how aggressive New York has been this off-season I can't say I'll be shocked if they move up to try and grab one of the elite players on draft day, but I think that they realize how deep this draft is. Odrick is, in my opinion, a much better prospect then last year's 3rd overall pick Tyson Jackson and should be a superb five-tech defensive end in New York's 3-4 defense. New York may also make a move up to grab Mike Iupati or Maurkice Pouncey, as it seems the team is ready to part with veteran guard Alan Faneca.

30. Minnesota Vikings – Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama
Cedric Griffin's devastating knee injury in the NFC Championship game puts his availability for 2010 in doubt. The Vikings have very few immediate needs outside of corner, and Jackson is a guy who'd likely go higher in a year that wasn't so deep at almost every other position. A sure tackler, Jackson has the ability to play both man and zone at the next level.

31. Indianapolis Colts – Devin McCourtey, CB, Rutgers
A seemingly perfect fit for the perennial undersized Colts, McCourtey is a supremely athletic corner who will add a facet to the Colts defense that Marlin Jackson couldn't--ball skills.

32. New Orleans Saints – Taylor Mays, S, USC
Mays is a high-risk, high-reward type of player. In a zone scheme, there may not be a better safety in this draft. In a man scheme, he's going to struggle. New Orleans has a tendency to run both, so it'll be interesting to see if Mays can mask his man coverage deficiencies or if he's going to struggle miserably. There is no better centerfielder in the draft. In a zone scheme, Mays playing FS in a Cover 3 or a Cover 1, it'll be difficult to get the deep ball past him.

The 2010 NFL Draft first round starts on Thursday April 22nd at 7:30 PM.

Other potential names to watch out for in round one:

WR Golden Tate
TE Jermaine Gresham
OL Roger Saffold
DE Carlos Dunlap
DE/OLB Jerry Hughes
DT/DE Linval Joseph
S Nate Allen

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