The AFC North has turned into a two-horse race, but the Browns are still alive and with a win over New York this week are right back in the thick of the wildcard race. Cincinnati is dead in the water, probably needing to win out to make the playoffs. Don't count on it.
1. Baltimore Ravens (6-2, 2-1, 6-2)
They're first game outside the conference is tonight in Atlanta. The Ravens will finish the season with three division games, four games against the NFC South, and a game in Houston. It's not exactly the most difficult schedule, but the Ravens 6-2 record is a little misleading (much like most teams in the league this year). They've been respectable on third downs this season on both sides of the ball, and while the offense hasn't been as electric with Ray Rice nursing injuries, Joe Flacco is finally starting to move the ball after a slow start to the season.
Baltimore's also done a nice job this year despite a slew of injuries in the secondary. They haven't been shutdown by any means, but they've only allowed 8 passing touchdowns and they are keeping the completion percentage relatively low. Big plays haven't been much of a problem either as the Ravens have allowed just three passes over 40 yards this season.
The Ravens have done a good job of finding ways to win even if the numbers aren't overly impressive. They've got to improve the second-level blocking on offense and defensively the run defense has actually been a bit weaker this year then in most years (4.2 YPC allowed). Baltimore still has arguably the best interior linemen in the league in Haloti Ngata who will throw just about any offensive linemen around like a rag doll. The Ravens have got to find a way to defend the weak side though. Currently they are ranked by Football Outsiders as the 2nd worst run stopping team on the weak side (I wonder why they cut Trevor Pryce?).
They are plus one in turnover ratio and they are winning games. But they're two losses are to a bad Cincinnati team and a New England team that the Ravens handed the game too. The Ravens might be the best team in the AFC, but they can't lose winnable games like that. This team could easily be 8-0 right now.
Grade: A
Remaining Schedule: @ATL, @CAR, TB, PIT, @HOU, NO, @CLE, CIN
A nice mix of games for the Ravens. Going on the road to Atlanta is always tough. The Falcons have been stellar in the Georgia Dome since the Ryan-Smith take over in 08. Even if Baltimore loses tonight, wins over Carolina and pretender Tampa Bay are probably in the cards. The Steelers haven't looked much like the same team from the first month of the season, but they owe the Ravens big time and likely won't allow a sweep. Houston's been such a mess defensively that right now you have to assume they might not win another game this year with their level of play. New Orleans is going to be an obviously difficult test, but exotic looks have flustered Brees this season. The Ravens struggled with Cleveland the last time they played, and it's likely the game will be close again. The Ravens will not lose their fourth straight to the Bungles though. So what's the 2nd half record look like?
6-2 with wins over Carolina, Tampa, Houston, Cleveland, and Cincinnati. This will give them an 11-5, 4-2, 9-3 record which in almost every year is enough to make the playoffs (save 2008 New England). Will it be enough to win the division?
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2, 2-1, 4-1)
Arguably the best defense in the league over the first month of the season, they've come back to Earth. The Steelers run defense has still been superb though and are battling with the Jets to determine who the best brick wall is for opposing backs. Pittsburgh's secondary has come back to life, as has the pass rush which looked so dominating to start the year. Whether or not the league is in James Harrison's head is a totally unknown issue. There's also the three straight sub-par performances, but Pittsburgh has still found a way to go 2-1 in those games (much like New York).
Pittsburgh's also got some serious injury worries with Max Starks out for the season. They're now left with Flozell Adams and Jonathan Scott. If there's ever been a team that can survive without a great offensive line it's Pittsburgh. Roethlisberger thrives off making men miss in the pocket. Run blocking is something that all offensive linemen love to do. They get into more of a rythm when they block downhill. Still, there's no denying the talent downgrade. Are the Steelers in trouble? At 6-2 they've padded themselves well, but they need to start finishing games (oh hi 2009 Steelers!).
Mike Wallace has emerged as perhaps the best deep threat in the league. Rashard Mendenhall has also emerged as a great pure runner. Defensively, Pittsburgh just can't finish. This team that looked like a Super Bowl contender a month ago now looks like at best a Super Bowl loser.
Grade: A-
Remaining Schedule: NE, OAK, @BUF, @BAL, CIN, NYJ, CAR, @CLE
Five home games left for Pittsburgh including three in December. That's huge. The Steelers are going to beat New England and Oakland at home. New England is going to keep it close, and could certainly swing it their way thanks to great preparation each week, but the Steelers are the more talented team with the better matchups. Oakland has to make a difficult trip to the east coast, but they are fortunate to come off of a bye week. Traveling to Buffalo is nothing more than a nuisance. Going on the road to Baltimore won't be easy either, but the Steelers are going to hit them back. Cincinnati at home is going to be a win. I've already detailed that I think Pittsburgh takes out New York. Carolina and Cleveland should both be wins, but that Cleveland game could start meaning a lot more if the Browns keep playing this well. Based on this schedule the Steelers shouldn't lose another game, but with how much they struggle to finish games I'm going to go ahead and say that they fall to Cleveland in Cleveland (especially since the Steelers will already have homefield wrapped up). Their final record will be 13-3, 4-2, 10-2.
3. Cleveland Browns (3-5, 1-2, 2-3)
This is a team that's going to seriously regret the close losses to start the season. They lost their first three games by seven points or less (two of them by a field goal or less) and had leads in all of them entering the fourth quarter. They could be sitting at 6-2 right now with Baltimore at 5-3, but quarterback instability destroyed them in those three games. Delhomme committed two huge turnovers against Tampa Bay in the opener and didn't get much help from Seneca Wallace after that. Imagine how different things could be for this Cleveland team. Now they have to really work to make the playoffs, but they certainly look like they're committed after big wins over New Orleans and New England. Now they face the Jets.
The Browns are now +6 in the turnover department the last two weeks (7 turnovers forced). They started the season at a paltry -4 through the first six games (8 turnovers forced). The Browns running game has been the one constant throughout the season thanks to the emergence of brusier Peyton Hillis. The H-Back at Arkansas stuck in a crowded backfield with Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, Hillis has emerged as the brusier that Cleveland wanted last year out of Jamal Lewis and couldn't get. Hillis has also caught 30 balls out of the backfield. Right now he's on pace for nearly 1300 yards rushing, 14 touchdowns, and 60 grabs out of the backfield. Hillis has become the entire offense, and last week opened things up for receiver Mohammad Massaquoi and tight ends Ben Watson and Evan Moore. There's potential in Cleveland, but if they can win next season if they bring in a decent quarterback. Colt McCoy limits the offense too much, and that means whenever the Browns go up against a team that can actually stop the run is going to shut their offense down. That being said, the Browns are a poor man's version of the 2009 New York Jets. Similar offense but the defense, as good as it's been, isn't quite as good as last year's Jets team.
Grade: C+
I expected the Browns to be better than 3-5. They've certainly played better than their record indicates, but this might be the reason they miss the playoffs.
Remaining Schedule: NYJ, @JAX, CAR, @MIA, @BUF, @CIN, BAL, PIT
I think Cleveland wins their next four games and all of a sudden they're 7-5 going into December. If they beat New York they're going to have serious momentum and some winnable games. I think they'll struggle in Miami with a stout Mike Nolan defense (in spite of injuries). Buffalo and Cincinnati are going to be wins while the Browns lose to Baltimore and defeat Pittsburgh to finish 9-7, 3-3, 7-5.
Anyone think the Browns are going to be kicking themselves for blowing three fourth quarter leads to start the year?
4. Cincinnati Bengals (2-6, 1-2, 1-4)
So much for my division winning Bengals. Carson Palmer doesn't look like the same guy. His arm strength almost looks shot, though admittedly he still stands tall in the pocket and likes to take shots downfield. It's his decision making and velocity that are hurting. I wouldn't be surprised if Palmer was in his last year in Cincinnati, even though it's probably not the right decision for the Bengals. The worst part is they are always down and Carson Palmer is on pace to destroy his career high in attempts.
This is a team that clearly misses Antwan Odom. Their pass rush has been really poor when they don't blitz. The running game is nowhere near as dominant as it was a year ago. Marvin Lewis is clearly frustrated and he's got a lot of big time personalities in the locker room. Dating back to October 3rd this team has lost five straight games by eight points or less. They remind me an awful lot of the difference between the 2006 Jets who went 10-6 and the 2007 Jets who went 4-12. This Bengals team probably will be able to win a few games, but I think the playoffs are far out of reach for a team that starts slow out of the gate every week. Football is a 60 minute game, and whether you start hot or finish hot, if you don't play for the full sixty minutes you aren't going to win the game. The Bengals can't decide to just show up with thirteen minutes left in the fourth quarter and expect a win.
Terrell Owens has been simply fantastic, but the team is 2-6 and you have to wonder what impact he has really had on this team, because they've still lost every single game where he's been an impact player. In Cincinnati's two wins this year Owens has 7 catches for 99 yards and no touchdowns.
Grade: F
No excuse for this team to be 2-6. They should be no worse than 4-4.
Remaining Schedule: @IND, BUF, @NYJ, NO, @PIT, CLE, SD, @BAL
Well let's just be frank. They're not going to win in Indianapolis. That place has been downright impossible to play in. Hosting the Bills should be a monster day for Cedric Benson. The Bengals are going to get lit up in New York. The Saints has the potential to be an upset win because Cincinnati can be a tough place to play with the bad weather, but on pure talent New Orleans should win that game. Even so I think that with a secondary like the Bengals have that could be a problem game for Drew Brees. Cincinnati won't win in Pittsburgh and they're not going to be able to stop Peyton Hillis. San Diego plays well late in the season and Baltimore in the final week of the season is going to be a bit of revenge for the Ravens. The Bengals power blocking scheme just doesn't look the same this season. Without Antwan Odom the defense has struggled to get pressure with four guys. There's no guarantee with such an inconsisten team. Marvin Lewis has to be frustrated at this point. The Bengals are going to finish 4-12, 1-5, 2-10.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Monday, November 8, 2010
Mid-Season Report Card: AFC East
Half of the NFL season already gone. It's incredible. It feels like only yesterday Arian Foster and the Houston Texans were dominating the Colts. It's amazing how much different the NFL is eight weeks later. The Texans look like pretenders. The Jets looked an awful lot like pretenders and they look like actual contenders. Nobody was ready to buy the Chiefs win over San Diego as anything other than a total fluke and the Titans embarrassed the Raiders who people thought were sure to have another terrible season regardless of who was under center.
My how far we've come in two months.
TEAM (Overall, Division, Conference)
AFC East
1. New York Jets (6-2, 3-0, 4-1)
In their two losses the Jets offense has been bad--really bad. However, it wasn't helped by poor officiating in the loss to Green Bay. The Jets have been a strange team to watch as far as 6-2 teams go. They do a lot of things right, but an equal amount of things wrong. For the first five games of the season the Jets did an incredible job taking care of the ball. They had just one turnover in that span and went 4-1. In spite of eight turnovers in their last three games, the Jets are somehow 2-1. That's not going to hold though--especially for a team penalized as often as New York is (just under 8 per game...among top five most penalized in the league). Mark Sanchez looks like a much different quarterback this season. The key is that he isn't getting rattled by turnovers or by road crowds. The Jets are 4-0 on the road this season. Sanchez's pocket presence is incredibly improved. He is learning how to feel the pressure--especially on four man rushes. Against the blitz, Sanchez was stellar early in the season. Against Detroit's blitz on Sunday he wasn't quite as effective and saw balls batted at the line and mistimed a lot of his passes to avoid taking a big hit. Still, his development is moving very much in the right direction.
The Jets are going to start moving away from LaDainian Tomlinson as the season progresses now. He's averaging just 3.5 yards per carry over the last three games after starting out the season with an absurd 5.8 yards per carry through the first five. And after starting the season very slowly with a 3.5 YPC, Shonn Green has bounced back in a big way. He's averaging 5 yards per carry in his last five games. The Jets running game can definitely find it's full force again with Shonn Greene taking the reigns. There's definitely a correlation between the Jets running game taking a step back and Sanchez's turnovers. The Jets have to find that running game again.
Even without Kris Jenkins, the Jets are healthy and are looking very good. Darrelle Revis looked like pre-injury Revis in yesterday's game with the Lions. If the Jets can find a way to re-ignite the running game with Shonn Greene taking the bulk of the carries they have a shot at clinching homefield advantage in the AFC. Defensively, the Jets need to find a way to get after the quarterback. They've really struggled to put the pressure on. But with Revis back at 100%, the Jets might be able to return to the overload blitz.
Grade: B+
I still see vulnerability with this team. I don't think they are real Super Bowl contenders, but they are definitely going to be in the playoffs.
Remaining Schedule: @CLE, HOU, CIN, @NE, MIA, @PIT, @CHI, BUF
The Jets next three games include teams with a combined record of 9-14, but there are no soft games in the NFL (even the Bills are playing well...). The Jets have a very tough matchup against Cleveland next week on the road. As a defensive backs coach Eric Mangini likes throwing exotic coverages out and defensive coordinator Rob Ryan will throw the occasional tricky blitz at you (much like his brother Rex). Sanchez has struggled with exotic coverages this season, so the Jets are going to need to rely on the running game against a team that hasn't allowed more than 3.5 yards per carry in the last three weeks. Even if the Jets do fall against Cleveland next week, Houston's defense has been a total disaster this season and Cincinnati's Carson Palmer is going to get eaten alive by the Jets defense. On the road at New England will be difficult, but it's clear that the Patriots lousy defense is going to be a serious issue. If the weather is bad and the Patriots are forced to run the ball against New York, they are going to be in even more trouble. I think the Jets also beat Miami, but on the road in Pittsburgh will be a loss against a very stout Steelers defense. Chicago at Soldier Field is going to be a trap game. Cutler usually dices 3-4 defenses and then the Jets finish up in Buffalo. I see the Jets going 5-3 in the second half and finishing 11-5, 6-0, 9-3.
2. New England Patriots (6-2, 2-1, 5-2)
The Patriots keep finding ways to win and it's been pretty impressive, but a couple of serious flaws that have been lurking in the background were exposed in yesterday's beat-down in Cleveland. We see that the Patriots really can't score that quickly anymore. They are a team that uses the short pass like a running game when they can't run the ball. They also lack a serious deep threat and Brady still isn't fully in sync with his young receivers while Wes Welker and Deion Branch are recovering from different injuries. The Patriots defense has been a problem all season, and it was severely exposed by the physicality of running back Peyton Hillis. Colt McCoy made the throws he needed to, but it was the Peyton Hillis show has he rang up 184 rushing yards. The Patriots struggled with the physical running style of Hillis, which raises some serious alarm bells seeing as they'll still have to face Rashard Mendenhall, Ronnie Brown, and Shonn Greene once more this season.The Patriots young secondary also continues to get exposed this season. Every starting quarterback they've faced has thrown for at least a 68% completion percentage. All but two have completed at least 70% of their passes. It's amazing the Patriots have been able to go 6-2 and a lot of that is thanks to good special teams play and timely turnovers. As a whole this season the Patriots have allowed a 70.1% completion percentage and 13 touchdowns. It's been nine interceptions through eight games and a turnover differential of +5. The Patriots won't be able to survive the whole season with this type of defense, and playoffs are not...they are not a Super Bowl contender.
Grade: B+
They've found ways to win, but chances are they're not going to be as successful in the second half.
Remaining Schedule: @PIT, IND, @DET, NYJ, @CHI, GB, @BUF, MIA
The Patriots, much like the Jets, have a very interesting schedule remaining. They're on the road in Pittsburgh next week and I get the feeling we're going to see something similar from Rashard Mendenhall like we saw from Peyton Hillis. Indianapolis has been a different team on the road this year, the Lions have forced a game out of every team this year, the Jets game is a swing game, at Chicago could be a trap game with Jay Cutler...or the Patriots could blow them out thanks to better coaching and preparation, the Packers will be a real tight game, Buffalo's late-season weather could be a problem, and Miami in the cold of Foxboro will be lots of fun for Patriots fan.
Overall the Patriots don't stack up really well, but I see them going 5-3 over the final stretch of the season with their losses coming to Pittsburgh, New York, and Green Bay to finish with a record of 11-5, 5-1, 8-4. For the first time in ten years the Jets will sweep the Patriots. For the first time in eight years the Jets will win the division and for only the third time in the last eleven seasons someone not named New England will win the division.
3. Miami Dolphins (4-4, 1-2, 2-4)
Yuck. Chad Henne won't throw to Brandon Marshall. The running game has been mediocre and unable to get going behind what should be a terrific offensive line and the defense is starting to wear down thanks to a banged up line. However, defensive coordinator Mike Nolan might be able to parlay another job out of this. He's done a phenomenal job with a really banged up line and mediocre safeties in the secondary. The Dolphins have a lot of potential, but they're not getting the play they expected from quarterback Chad Henne and the holes on defense are a problem as well. Still, this is a team that may be a quarterback away from really contending in the AFC. Their off-season is going to be closely watched.
Miami is a well-coached team. And they are the type of team that will stick with you for 60 minutes. They're pesky even with their quarterback situation. They just don't have enough to win six games in a difficult AFC.
Grade: B-
They are finding ways to win again, but the glaring flaw under center is being exposed. The expectations were much higher coming into the season and that's the reason for the grade.
Remaining Schedule: TEN, CHI, @OAK, CLE, @NYJ, BUF, DET, @NE
This is a very favorable schedule for Miami if they can win the games that matter, because they get two very nice home games late in the season against Buffalo and Detroit. If Detroit is without Matthew Stafford it won't be much of a game at all for the Lions. Tennessee is going to be a tough game, and Miami has yet to win a game at home, but eventually that's going to change. Chicago is a game where teams of equal talent face off, but the Dolphins are a much better coached team. The Dolphins also must survive a difficult road trip to Oakland (one of the toughest places to go for an east-coast team). Cleveland at home is a favorable game because of the inexperience at quarterback that limits the Browns offense. Buffalo and Detroit are obviously very winnable. The final game in New England could very well decide the final wildcard spot.
I think Miami picks up their first home win against a banged up Titans team. They'll outcoach the Bears and squirt out a win. Out in Oakland is a game I thought Miami would lose coming into the season and I'm not changing my stance. Cleveland is going to give them a test, but the Dolphins will win this one as well. At New York I see them falling. They'll then pull out wins at home over Buffalo and Detroit finishing the season on a five game home winning streak. So you may ask...how can I pick the Dolphins to finish the year losing four straight road games after winning their first four on the road? Those teams had a combined record of 11-21. Oakland is a tough place to play for any east-coast team and Miami playing in the cold of Jersey and Foxboro in December is not going to be pleasant. So I have Miami finishing 5-3 in the second half with a record of 9-7, 2-4, 5-7.
4. Buffalo Bills (0-8, 0-3, 0-6)
What can you say about the Bills? I guess they have heart. Even at 0-5 they've played their butts off the last three weeks, but have come up just short in all three games. They're not going to go 0-16, especially since they catch Detroit at the best time to catch them--fresh off a Matthew Stafford injury. Drew Stanton isn't going to do much, and that means the Lions have to adjust their game-plan to rely on Jahvid Best. Even so, the Lions secondary is full of holes. I'm sure Fitzpatrick will be under duress all game, but he moves well in the pocket and has found serious chemistry with Jerricho Cotchery-clone (early in his career) Steve Johnson. But outside of that the Bills are in disarray. They've already abandoned the 3-4 defense (which limits Shawne Merriman to end and his best days look behind him anyway) and they've been completely unable to stop the run no matter who is playing nose tackle (shocker!). I expected the Bills to finally bottom out this year, and you could tell they knew things were going to be bad when they gave up on the guy who got all the pre-season and training camp first team reps in Trent Edwards after just two games.
This team is going to be bad and they're going to be bad for a while. Bad coaching has been just the tip of the iceberg, but bad management has been the real problem. The Bills have needed a total rebuilding process for years, but keep trying to win now instead of blowing up the building and starting over. You have to build from the inside out. It's cliche, but if you don't build a strong foundation (the trenches) how can you expect the high-rise (stars) to stay up?
The Bills are going to need help at quarterback, tackle, center, and all over their front seven. There is talent here, but someone needs to really commit to building the trenches. Eric Wood, when fully healthy, is a good building block on the line (though I think he should be playing center). I'm not sure Andy Levitre will ever be the player the Bills expected him to be when they took him in the second round. Plus allowing guards like Derrick Dockery and Richie Incognito to walk along with tackles Jason Peters and Langston Walker to walk in recent years was a serious mistake. Walker is terrible in pass pro, but is a great mauler on the strong side. The Bills defensive line is in shambles as well with no blind-side pass rusher because of the total and complete failure of Aaron Maybin who like Vernon Gholston, Jarvis Moss, Jason Babin, and many other hybrid end/linebackers will fail to live up to the DeMarcus Ware level that was set.
So here's Buffalo's remaining schedule...
DET, @CIN, PIT, @MIN, CLE, @MIA, NE, @NYJ
Let's be honest nobody is going to come into Buffalo and try to throw the ball against them all day. Teams are going to be running and their going to be running a lot. They are going to win one game this season--this week against Detroit. Otherwise, Cedric Benson, Rashard Mendenhall, Adrian Peterson, Peyton Hillis, Ronnie Brown, Danny Woodhead/BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and Shonn Greene all have one banner day left in them this season...it's against Buffalo. Their final record will be 1-15, 0-6, 0-12
My how far we've come in two months.
TEAM (Overall, Division, Conference)
AFC East
1. New York Jets (6-2, 3-0, 4-1)
In their two losses the Jets offense has been bad--really bad. However, it wasn't helped by poor officiating in the loss to Green Bay. The Jets have been a strange team to watch as far as 6-2 teams go. They do a lot of things right, but an equal amount of things wrong. For the first five games of the season the Jets did an incredible job taking care of the ball. They had just one turnover in that span and went 4-1. In spite of eight turnovers in their last three games, the Jets are somehow 2-1. That's not going to hold though--especially for a team penalized as often as New York is (just under 8 per game...among top five most penalized in the league). Mark Sanchez looks like a much different quarterback this season. The key is that he isn't getting rattled by turnovers or by road crowds. The Jets are 4-0 on the road this season. Sanchez's pocket presence is incredibly improved. He is learning how to feel the pressure--especially on four man rushes. Against the blitz, Sanchez was stellar early in the season. Against Detroit's blitz on Sunday he wasn't quite as effective and saw balls batted at the line and mistimed a lot of his passes to avoid taking a big hit. Still, his development is moving very much in the right direction.
The Jets are going to start moving away from LaDainian Tomlinson as the season progresses now. He's averaging just 3.5 yards per carry over the last three games after starting out the season with an absurd 5.8 yards per carry through the first five. And after starting the season very slowly with a 3.5 YPC, Shonn Green has bounced back in a big way. He's averaging 5 yards per carry in his last five games. The Jets running game can definitely find it's full force again with Shonn Greene taking the reigns. There's definitely a correlation between the Jets running game taking a step back and Sanchez's turnovers. The Jets have to find that running game again.
Even without Kris Jenkins, the Jets are healthy and are looking very good. Darrelle Revis looked like pre-injury Revis in yesterday's game with the Lions. If the Jets can find a way to re-ignite the running game with Shonn Greene taking the bulk of the carries they have a shot at clinching homefield advantage in the AFC. Defensively, the Jets need to find a way to get after the quarterback. They've really struggled to put the pressure on. But with Revis back at 100%, the Jets might be able to return to the overload blitz.
Grade: B+
I still see vulnerability with this team. I don't think they are real Super Bowl contenders, but they are definitely going to be in the playoffs.
Remaining Schedule: @CLE, HOU, CIN, @NE, MIA, @PIT, @CHI, BUF
The Jets next three games include teams with a combined record of 9-14, but there are no soft games in the NFL (even the Bills are playing well...). The Jets have a very tough matchup against Cleveland next week on the road. As a defensive backs coach Eric Mangini likes throwing exotic coverages out and defensive coordinator Rob Ryan will throw the occasional tricky blitz at you (much like his brother Rex). Sanchez has struggled with exotic coverages this season, so the Jets are going to need to rely on the running game against a team that hasn't allowed more than 3.5 yards per carry in the last three weeks. Even if the Jets do fall against Cleveland next week, Houston's defense has been a total disaster this season and Cincinnati's Carson Palmer is going to get eaten alive by the Jets defense. On the road at New England will be difficult, but it's clear that the Patriots lousy defense is going to be a serious issue. If the weather is bad and the Patriots are forced to run the ball against New York, they are going to be in even more trouble. I think the Jets also beat Miami, but on the road in Pittsburgh will be a loss against a very stout Steelers defense. Chicago at Soldier Field is going to be a trap game. Cutler usually dices 3-4 defenses and then the Jets finish up in Buffalo. I see the Jets going 5-3 in the second half and finishing 11-5, 6-0, 9-3.
2. New England Patriots (6-2, 2-1, 5-2)
The Patriots keep finding ways to win and it's been pretty impressive, but a couple of serious flaws that have been lurking in the background were exposed in yesterday's beat-down in Cleveland. We see that the Patriots really can't score that quickly anymore. They are a team that uses the short pass like a running game when they can't run the ball. They also lack a serious deep threat and Brady still isn't fully in sync with his young receivers while Wes Welker and Deion Branch are recovering from different injuries. The Patriots defense has been a problem all season, and it was severely exposed by the physicality of running back Peyton Hillis. Colt McCoy made the throws he needed to, but it was the Peyton Hillis show has he rang up 184 rushing yards. The Patriots struggled with the physical running style of Hillis, which raises some serious alarm bells seeing as they'll still have to face Rashard Mendenhall, Ronnie Brown, and Shonn Greene once more this season.The Patriots young secondary also continues to get exposed this season. Every starting quarterback they've faced has thrown for at least a 68% completion percentage. All but two have completed at least 70% of their passes. It's amazing the Patriots have been able to go 6-2 and a lot of that is thanks to good special teams play and timely turnovers. As a whole this season the Patriots have allowed a 70.1% completion percentage and 13 touchdowns. It's been nine interceptions through eight games and a turnover differential of +5. The Patriots won't be able to survive the whole season with this type of defense, and playoffs are not...they are not a Super Bowl contender.
Grade: B+
They've found ways to win, but chances are they're not going to be as successful in the second half.
Remaining Schedule: @PIT, IND, @DET, NYJ, @CHI, GB, @BUF, MIA
The Patriots, much like the Jets, have a very interesting schedule remaining. They're on the road in Pittsburgh next week and I get the feeling we're going to see something similar from Rashard Mendenhall like we saw from Peyton Hillis. Indianapolis has been a different team on the road this year, the Lions have forced a game out of every team this year, the Jets game is a swing game, at Chicago could be a trap game with Jay Cutler...or the Patriots could blow them out thanks to better coaching and preparation, the Packers will be a real tight game, Buffalo's late-season weather could be a problem, and Miami in the cold of Foxboro will be lots of fun for Patriots fan.
Overall the Patriots don't stack up really well, but I see them going 5-3 over the final stretch of the season with their losses coming to Pittsburgh, New York, and Green Bay to finish with a record of 11-5, 5-1, 8-4. For the first time in ten years the Jets will sweep the Patriots. For the first time in eight years the Jets will win the division and for only the third time in the last eleven seasons someone not named New England will win the division.
3. Miami Dolphins (4-4, 1-2, 2-4)
Yuck. Chad Henne won't throw to Brandon Marshall. The running game has been mediocre and unable to get going behind what should be a terrific offensive line and the defense is starting to wear down thanks to a banged up line. However, defensive coordinator Mike Nolan might be able to parlay another job out of this. He's done a phenomenal job with a really banged up line and mediocre safeties in the secondary. The Dolphins have a lot of potential, but they're not getting the play they expected from quarterback Chad Henne and the holes on defense are a problem as well. Still, this is a team that may be a quarterback away from really contending in the AFC. Their off-season is going to be closely watched.
Miami is a well-coached team. And they are the type of team that will stick with you for 60 minutes. They're pesky even with their quarterback situation. They just don't have enough to win six games in a difficult AFC.
Grade: B-
They are finding ways to win again, but the glaring flaw under center is being exposed. The expectations were much higher coming into the season and that's the reason for the grade.
Remaining Schedule: TEN, CHI, @OAK, CLE, @NYJ, BUF, DET, @NE
This is a very favorable schedule for Miami if they can win the games that matter, because they get two very nice home games late in the season against Buffalo and Detroit. If Detroit is without Matthew Stafford it won't be much of a game at all for the Lions. Tennessee is going to be a tough game, and Miami has yet to win a game at home, but eventually that's going to change. Chicago is a game where teams of equal talent face off, but the Dolphins are a much better coached team. The Dolphins also must survive a difficult road trip to Oakland (one of the toughest places to go for an east-coast team). Cleveland at home is a favorable game because of the inexperience at quarterback that limits the Browns offense. Buffalo and Detroit are obviously very winnable. The final game in New England could very well decide the final wildcard spot.
I think Miami picks up their first home win against a banged up Titans team. They'll outcoach the Bears and squirt out a win. Out in Oakland is a game I thought Miami would lose coming into the season and I'm not changing my stance. Cleveland is going to give them a test, but the Dolphins will win this one as well. At New York I see them falling. They'll then pull out wins at home over Buffalo and Detroit finishing the season on a five game home winning streak. So you may ask...how can I pick the Dolphins to finish the year losing four straight road games after winning their first four on the road? Those teams had a combined record of 11-21. Oakland is a tough place to play for any east-coast team and Miami playing in the cold of Jersey and Foxboro in December is not going to be pleasant. So I have Miami finishing 5-3 in the second half with a record of 9-7, 2-4, 5-7.
4. Buffalo Bills (0-8, 0-3, 0-6)
What can you say about the Bills? I guess they have heart. Even at 0-5 they've played their butts off the last three weeks, but have come up just short in all three games. They're not going to go 0-16, especially since they catch Detroit at the best time to catch them--fresh off a Matthew Stafford injury. Drew Stanton isn't going to do much, and that means the Lions have to adjust their game-plan to rely on Jahvid Best. Even so, the Lions secondary is full of holes. I'm sure Fitzpatrick will be under duress all game, but he moves well in the pocket and has found serious chemistry with Jerricho Cotchery-clone (early in his career) Steve Johnson. But outside of that the Bills are in disarray. They've already abandoned the 3-4 defense (which limits Shawne Merriman to end and his best days look behind him anyway) and they've been completely unable to stop the run no matter who is playing nose tackle (shocker!). I expected the Bills to finally bottom out this year, and you could tell they knew things were going to be bad when they gave up on the guy who got all the pre-season and training camp first team reps in Trent Edwards after just two games.
This team is going to be bad and they're going to be bad for a while. Bad coaching has been just the tip of the iceberg, but bad management has been the real problem. The Bills have needed a total rebuilding process for years, but keep trying to win now instead of blowing up the building and starting over. You have to build from the inside out. It's cliche, but if you don't build a strong foundation (the trenches) how can you expect the high-rise (stars) to stay up?
The Bills are going to need help at quarterback, tackle, center, and all over their front seven. There is talent here, but someone needs to really commit to building the trenches. Eric Wood, when fully healthy, is a good building block on the line (though I think he should be playing center). I'm not sure Andy Levitre will ever be the player the Bills expected him to be when they took him in the second round. Plus allowing guards like Derrick Dockery and Richie Incognito to walk along with tackles Jason Peters and Langston Walker to walk in recent years was a serious mistake. Walker is terrible in pass pro, but is a great mauler on the strong side. The Bills defensive line is in shambles as well with no blind-side pass rusher because of the total and complete failure of Aaron Maybin who like Vernon Gholston, Jarvis Moss, Jason Babin, and many other hybrid end/linebackers will fail to live up to the DeMarcus Ware level that was set.
So here's Buffalo's remaining schedule...
DET, @CIN, PIT, @MIN, CLE, @MIA, NE, @NYJ
Let's be honest nobody is going to come into Buffalo and try to throw the ball against them all day. Teams are going to be running and their going to be running a lot. They are going to win one game this season--this week against Detroit. Otherwise, Cedric Benson, Rashard Mendenhall, Adrian Peterson, Peyton Hillis, Ronnie Brown, Danny Woodhead/BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and Shonn Greene all have one banner day left in them this season...it's against Buffalo. Their final record will be 1-15, 0-6, 0-12
Friday, November 5, 2010
Cleveland's Response
This is why I thank God everyday I am not from the cursed city or a fan of any of the Cleveland sports teams.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Sparky Anderson (February 22, 1934 - November 10, 2010)
R.I.P George Lee "Sparky" Anderson, 2,194 career victories, 2 time Manager of the Year (1984, 1987), 4 NL Pennants (1970, 1972, 1975, 1976), 1 AL Pennant (1984), the first, manager to win a World Series in both leagues, and claimed 3 World Series Championships (1975, 1976, 1984). Always sad to lose a legend.
Where Does Pierce Rank Among the Celtic Greats?
Well it's tough to say. The Truth has certainly been the face of Celtic basketball the last decade, but he only has one championship. One championship is more than many H.O.F player's have accomplished, but in a franchise that is home to the only player with double-digit championships (Bill Russell, 11) one championship is standard for a Celtic all-star. However supporting cast has to be taken into account. Many Celtic greats have had a plethroa of talent, usually supported by 2-3 H.O.F players throughout their entire career. Pierce has the misfortune of joining the Celtics at their lowest point ever. Despite having little talent around him in 2002, Pierce managed to bring his team to the E.C. Finals where they bowed out to Jason Kidd in the Nets after six games. Since 2008 with the addition of Garnett and Allen and the emergence of Rondo, Pierce has made 2 Finals appearances, wining one, and is in contention for another this season.
Along with championships and statistics we must consider trademark games. Pierce has been the central figure in many iconic Celtic games and moments, such as the amazing 4th quarter comeback against the Nets in the 2002 EC Finals, the showdown with LeBron in game 7 of the second round in 2008, and limping back on the court and torching the Lakers, clinching game 1 in the 2008 Finals. However, none of these games and moments can measure up to Bird's steal in the 1987 EC Finals, his follow up lay in during the 1981 Finals, the triple OT Game 5 1976 Finals (considered by some to be the greatest game ever played) and of course Johnny Most uttering the famous words "HAVLICEK STOLE THE BALL!".
So where does Paul Pierce in a Celtics top 10 players list? Here's my list.
10. Dennis Johnson
9. Robert Parish
8. Sam Jones
7. Paul Pierce
6. Dave Cowens
5. Kevin McHale
4. Bob Cousy
3. John Havlicek
2. Bill Russell
1. Larry Bird
Monday, November 1, 2010
The Giants May End Their Misery; Barry Never Will
As the end to another sports title drought seems to be on the horizon, I want to reflect back on the last time this franchise had a chance to clinch a World Series title. To do that we only need to turn back the clock 8 seasons ago. It was 2002 in the heart of the Barry Bonds steroid days. His Giants were leading 5-3 going into the bottom of the 8th inning. Borderline hall of fame manager (possibly earning his 3rd Manager of the Year Award and second in the NL this season) pulled then ace Russ Ortiz for Felix Rodriguez. This was only after Ortiz allowed back to back singles. Rodriguez made Baker the goat of the bay area as he proceeded to allowing hit after hit including a home run to the scrappy Scott Spezio. Then came in Rob Nen who threw kerosene on the already burning fire. Nen gave up a bomb to Erstad and all of a sudden the Angels (much like Texas in their first ever World Series) were up 6-5. Angels star closer Troy Percival then easily picked up the Anaheim save to tie the series. As these things go in sports blowing a clinching game 6 is never good. Let's just say game 7 allowed a California team to win the series and some veterans to get their first and only title. Yup, the then Anaheim Angels (now Los Angeles of Anaheim blah blah blah) win their first and only World Championship in their only appearance. 
In no way am I saying I believe San Francisco will blow it again, in fact I thought the winner of last nights game 4 was going to go on to win the Fall Classic. However, I just wanted to point out what can happen when a franchise that has not won it all in a very long time is involved in a chance to get it done. Hell who am I kidding....? The sole reason for this post was so I could plaster this clip for all to see and reminisce on one of my favorite moments of the past decade in sports. Fast forward to about 3:10 and enjoy for about 5 seconds.
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