The AFC North has turned into a two-horse race, but the Browns are still alive and with a win over New York this week are right back in the thick of the wildcard race. Cincinnati is dead in the water, probably needing to win out to make the playoffs. Don't count on it.
1. Baltimore Ravens (6-2, 2-1, 6-2)
They're first game outside the conference is tonight in Atlanta. The Ravens will finish the season with three division games, four games against the NFC South, and a game in Houston. It's not exactly the most difficult schedule, but the Ravens 6-2 record is a little misleading (much like most teams in the league this year). They've been respectable on third downs this season on both sides of the ball, and while the offense hasn't been as electric with Ray Rice nursing injuries, Joe Flacco is finally starting to move the ball after a slow start to the season.
Baltimore's also done a nice job this year despite a slew of injuries in the secondary. They haven't been shutdown by any means, but they've only allowed 8 passing touchdowns and they are keeping the completion percentage relatively low. Big plays haven't been much of a problem either as the Ravens have allowed just three passes over 40 yards this season.
The Ravens have done a good job of finding ways to win even if the numbers aren't overly impressive. They've got to improve the second-level blocking on offense and defensively the run defense has actually been a bit weaker this year then in most years (4.2 YPC allowed). Baltimore still has arguably the best interior linemen in the league in Haloti Ngata who will throw just about any offensive linemen around like a rag doll. The Ravens have got to find a way to defend the weak side though. Currently they are ranked by Football Outsiders as the 2nd worst run stopping team on the weak side (I wonder why they cut Trevor Pryce?).
They are plus one in turnover ratio and they are winning games. But they're two losses are to a bad Cincinnati team and a New England team that the Ravens handed the game too. The Ravens might be the best team in the AFC, but they can't lose winnable games like that. This team could easily be 8-0 right now.
Grade: A
Remaining Schedule: @ATL, @CAR, TB, PIT, @HOU, NO, @CLE, CIN
A nice mix of games for the Ravens. Going on the road to Atlanta is always tough. The Falcons have been stellar in the Georgia Dome since the Ryan-Smith take over in 08. Even if Baltimore loses tonight, wins over Carolina and pretender Tampa Bay are probably in the cards. The Steelers haven't looked much like the same team from the first month of the season, but they owe the Ravens big time and likely won't allow a sweep. Houston's been such a mess defensively that right now you have to assume they might not win another game this year with their level of play. New Orleans is going to be an obviously difficult test, but exotic looks have flustered Brees this season. The Ravens struggled with Cleveland the last time they played, and it's likely the game will be close again. The Ravens will not lose their fourth straight to the Bungles though. So what's the 2nd half record look like?
6-2 with wins over Carolina, Tampa, Houston, Cleveland, and Cincinnati. This will give them an 11-5, 4-2, 9-3 record which in almost every year is enough to make the playoffs (save 2008 New England). Will it be enough to win the division?
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2, 2-1, 4-1)
Arguably the best defense in the league over the first month of the season, they've come back to Earth. The Steelers run defense has still been superb though and are battling with the Jets to determine who the best brick wall is for opposing backs. Pittsburgh's secondary has come back to life, as has the pass rush which looked so dominating to start the year. Whether or not the league is in James Harrison's head is a totally unknown issue. There's also the three straight sub-par performances, but Pittsburgh has still found a way to go 2-1 in those games (much like New York).
Pittsburgh's also got some serious injury worries with Max Starks out for the season. They're now left with Flozell Adams and Jonathan Scott. If there's ever been a team that can survive without a great offensive line it's Pittsburgh. Roethlisberger thrives off making men miss in the pocket. Run blocking is something that all offensive linemen love to do. They get into more of a rythm when they block downhill. Still, there's no denying the talent downgrade. Are the Steelers in trouble? At 6-2 they've padded themselves well, but they need to start finishing games (oh hi 2009 Steelers!).
Mike Wallace has emerged as perhaps the best deep threat in the league. Rashard Mendenhall has also emerged as a great pure runner. Defensively, Pittsburgh just can't finish. This team that looked like a Super Bowl contender a month ago now looks like at best a Super Bowl loser.
Grade: A-
Remaining Schedule: NE, OAK, @BUF, @BAL, CIN, NYJ, CAR, @CLE
Five home games left for Pittsburgh including three in December. That's huge. The Steelers are going to beat New England and Oakland at home. New England is going to keep it close, and could certainly swing it their way thanks to great preparation each week, but the Steelers are the more talented team with the better matchups. Oakland has to make a difficult trip to the east coast, but they are fortunate to come off of a bye week. Traveling to Buffalo is nothing more than a nuisance. Going on the road to Baltimore won't be easy either, but the Steelers are going to hit them back. Cincinnati at home is going to be a win. I've already detailed that I think Pittsburgh takes out New York. Carolina and Cleveland should both be wins, but that Cleveland game could start meaning a lot more if the Browns keep playing this well. Based on this schedule the Steelers shouldn't lose another game, but with how much they struggle to finish games I'm going to go ahead and say that they fall to Cleveland in Cleveland (especially since the Steelers will already have homefield wrapped up). Their final record will be 13-3, 4-2, 10-2.
3. Cleveland Browns (3-5, 1-2, 2-3)
This is a team that's going to seriously regret the close losses to start the season. They lost their first three games by seven points or less (two of them by a field goal or less) and had leads in all of them entering the fourth quarter. They could be sitting at 6-2 right now with Baltimore at 5-3, but quarterback instability destroyed them in those three games. Delhomme committed two huge turnovers against Tampa Bay in the opener and didn't get much help from Seneca Wallace after that. Imagine how different things could be for this Cleveland team. Now they have to really work to make the playoffs, but they certainly look like they're committed after big wins over New Orleans and New England. Now they face the Jets.
The Browns are now +6 in the turnover department the last two weeks (7 turnovers forced). They started the season at a paltry -4 through the first six games (8 turnovers forced). The Browns running game has been the one constant throughout the season thanks to the emergence of brusier Peyton Hillis. The H-Back at Arkansas stuck in a crowded backfield with Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, Hillis has emerged as the brusier that Cleveland wanted last year out of Jamal Lewis and couldn't get. Hillis has also caught 30 balls out of the backfield. Right now he's on pace for nearly 1300 yards rushing, 14 touchdowns, and 60 grabs out of the backfield. Hillis has become the entire offense, and last week opened things up for receiver Mohammad Massaquoi and tight ends Ben Watson and Evan Moore. There's potential in Cleveland, but if they can win next season if they bring in a decent quarterback. Colt McCoy limits the offense too much, and that means whenever the Browns go up against a team that can actually stop the run is going to shut their offense down. That being said, the Browns are a poor man's version of the 2009 New York Jets. Similar offense but the defense, as good as it's been, isn't quite as good as last year's Jets team.
Grade: C+
I expected the Browns to be better than 3-5. They've certainly played better than their record indicates, but this might be the reason they miss the playoffs.
Remaining Schedule: NYJ, @JAX, CAR, @MIA, @BUF, @CIN, BAL, PIT
I think Cleveland wins their next four games and all of a sudden they're 7-5 going into December. If they beat New York they're going to have serious momentum and some winnable games. I think they'll struggle in Miami with a stout Mike Nolan defense (in spite of injuries). Buffalo and Cincinnati are going to be wins while the Browns lose to Baltimore and defeat Pittsburgh to finish 9-7, 3-3, 7-5.
Anyone think the Browns are going to be kicking themselves for blowing three fourth quarter leads to start the year?
4. Cincinnati Bengals (2-6, 1-2, 1-4)
So much for my division winning Bengals. Carson Palmer doesn't look like the same guy. His arm strength almost looks shot, though admittedly he still stands tall in the pocket and likes to take shots downfield. It's his decision making and velocity that are hurting. I wouldn't be surprised if Palmer was in his last year in Cincinnati, even though it's probably not the right decision for the Bengals. The worst part is they are always down and Carson Palmer is on pace to destroy his career high in attempts.
This is a team that clearly misses Antwan Odom. Their pass rush has been really poor when they don't blitz. The running game is nowhere near as dominant as it was a year ago. Marvin Lewis is clearly frustrated and he's got a lot of big time personalities in the locker room. Dating back to October 3rd this team has lost five straight games by eight points or less. They remind me an awful lot of the difference between the 2006 Jets who went 10-6 and the 2007 Jets who went 4-12. This Bengals team probably will be able to win a few games, but I think the playoffs are far out of reach for a team that starts slow out of the gate every week. Football is a 60 minute game, and whether you start hot or finish hot, if you don't play for the full sixty minutes you aren't going to win the game. The Bengals can't decide to just show up with thirteen minutes left in the fourth quarter and expect a win.
Terrell Owens has been simply fantastic, but the team is 2-6 and you have to wonder what impact he has really had on this team, because they've still lost every single game where he's been an impact player. In Cincinnati's two wins this year Owens has 7 catches for 99 yards and no touchdowns.
Grade: F
No excuse for this team to be 2-6. They should be no worse than 4-4.
Remaining Schedule: @IND, BUF, @NYJ, NO, @PIT, CLE, SD, @BAL
Well let's just be frank. They're not going to win in Indianapolis. That place has been downright impossible to play in. Hosting the Bills should be a monster day for Cedric Benson. The Bengals are going to get lit up in New York. The Saints has the potential to be an upset win because Cincinnati can be a tough place to play with the bad weather, but on pure talent New Orleans should win that game. Even so I think that with a secondary like the Bengals have that could be a problem game for Drew Brees. Cincinnati won't win in Pittsburgh and they're not going to be able to stop Peyton Hillis. San Diego plays well late in the season and Baltimore in the final week of the season is going to be a bit of revenge for the Ravens. The Bengals power blocking scheme just doesn't look the same this season. Without Antwan Odom the defense has struggled to get pressure with four guys. There's no guarantee with such an inconsisten team. Marvin Lewis has to be frustrated at this point. The Bengals are going to finish 4-12, 1-5, 2-10.
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