Mid-Season Report Card: AFC East

Half of the NFL season already gone. It's incredible. It feels like only yesterday Arian Foster and the Houston Texans were dominating the Colts. It's amazing how much different the NFL is eight weeks later. The Texans look like pretenders. The Jets looked an awful lot like pretenders and they look like actual contenders. Nobody was ready to buy the Chiefs win over San Diego as anything other than a total fluke and the Titans embarrassed the Raiders who people thought were sure to have another terrible season regardless of who was under center.

My how far we've come in two months.

TEAM (Overall, Division, Conference)

AFC East

1. New York Jets (6-2, 3-0, 4-1)
In their two losses the Jets offense has been bad--really bad. However, it wasn't helped by poor officiating in the loss to Green Bay. The Jets have been a strange team to watch as far as 6-2 teams go. They do a lot of things right, but an equal amount of things wrong. For the first five games of the season the Jets did an incredible job taking care of the ball. They had just one turnover in that span and went 4-1. In spite of eight turnovers in their last three games, the Jets are somehow 2-1. That's not going to hold though--especially for a team penalized as often as New York is (just under 8 per game...among top five most penalized in the league). Mark Sanchez looks like a much different quarterback this season. The key is that he isn't getting rattled by turnovers or by road crowds. The Jets are 4-0 on the road this season. Sanchez's pocket presence is incredibly improved. He is learning how to feel the pressure--especially on four man rushes. Against the blitz, Sanchez was stellar early in the season. Against Detroit's blitz on Sunday he wasn't quite as effective and saw balls batted at the line and mistimed a lot of his passes to avoid taking a big hit. Still, his development is moving very much in the right direction.

The Jets are going to start moving away from LaDainian Tomlinson as the season progresses now. He's averaging just 3.5 yards per carry over the last three games after starting out the season with an absurd 5.8 yards per carry through the first five. And after starting the season very slowly with a 3.5 YPC, Shonn Green has bounced back in a big way. He's averaging 5 yards per carry in his last five games. The Jets running game can definitely find it's full force again with Shonn Greene taking the reigns. There's definitely a correlation between the Jets running game taking a step back and Sanchez's turnovers. The Jets have to find that running game again.

Even without Kris Jenkins, the Jets are healthy and are looking very good. Darrelle Revis looked like pre-injury Revis in yesterday's game with the Lions. If the Jets can find a way to re-ignite the running game with Shonn Greene taking the bulk of the carries they have a shot at clinching homefield advantage in the AFC. Defensively, the Jets need to find a way to get after the quarterback. They've really struggled to put the pressure on. But with Revis back at 100%, the Jets might be able to return to the overload blitz.

Grade: B+
I still see vulnerability with this team. I don't think they are real Super Bowl contenders, but they are definitely going to be in the playoffs.

Remaining Schedule: @CLE, HOU, CIN, @NE, MIA, @PIT, @CHI, BUF

The Jets next three games include teams with a combined record of 9-14, but there are no soft games in the NFL (even the Bills are playing well...). The Jets have a very tough matchup against Cleveland next week on the road. As a defensive backs coach Eric Mangini likes throwing exotic coverages out and defensive coordinator Rob Ryan will throw the occasional tricky blitz at you (much like his brother Rex). Sanchez has struggled with exotic coverages this season, so the Jets are going to need to rely on the running game against a team that hasn't allowed more than 3.5 yards per carry in the last three weeks. Even if the Jets do fall against Cleveland next week, Houston's defense has been a total disaster this season and Cincinnati's Carson Palmer is going to get eaten alive by the Jets defense. On the road at New England will be difficult, but it's clear that the Patriots lousy defense is going to be a serious issue. If the weather is bad and the Patriots are forced to run the ball against New York, they are going to be in even more trouble. I think the Jets also beat Miami, but on the road in Pittsburgh will be a loss against a very stout Steelers defense. Chicago at Soldier Field is going to be a trap game. Cutler usually dices 3-4 defenses and then the Jets finish up in Buffalo. I see the Jets going 5-3 in the second half and finishing 11-5, 6-0, 9-3.

2. New England Patriots (6-2, 2-1, 5-2)
The Patriots keep finding ways to win and it's been pretty impressive, but a couple of serious flaws that have been lurking in the background were exposed in yesterday's beat-down in Cleveland. We see that the Patriots really can't score that quickly anymore. They are a team that uses the short pass like a running game when they can't run the ball. They also lack a serious deep threat and Brady still isn't fully in sync with his young receivers while Wes Welker and Deion Branch are recovering from different injuries. The Patriots defense has been a problem all season, and it was severely exposed by the physicality of running back Peyton Hillis. Colt McCoy made the throws he needed to, but it was the Peyton Hillis show has he rang up 184 rushing yards. The Patriots struggled with the physical running style of Hillis, which raises some serious alarm bells seeing as they'll still have to face Rashard Mendenhall, Ronnie Brown, and Shonn Greene once more this season.The Patriots young secondary also continues to get exposed this season. Every starting quarterback they've faced has thrown for at least a 68% completion percentage. All but two have completed at least 70% of their passes. It's amazing the Patriots have been able to go 6-2 and a lot of that is thanks to good special teams play and timely turnovers. As a whole this season the Patriots have allowed a 70.1% completion percentage and 13 touchdowns. It's been nine interceptions through eight games and a turnover differential of +5. The Patriots won't be able to survive the whole season with this type of defense, and playoffs are not...they are not a Super Bowl contender.

Grade: B+
They've found ways to win, but chances are they're not going to be as successful in the second half.

Remaining Schedule: @PIT, IND, @DET, NYJ, @CHI, GB, @BUF, MIA

The Patriots, much like the Jets, have a very interesting schedule remaining. They're on the road in Pittsburgh next week and I get the feeling we're going to see something similar from Rashard Mendenhall like we saw from Peyton Hillis. Indianapolis has been a different team on the road this year, the Lions have forced a game out of every team this year, the Jets game is a swing game, at Chicago could be a trap game with Jay Cutler...or the Patriots could blow them out thanks to better coaching and preparation, the Packers will be a real tight game, Buffalo's late-season weather could be a problem, and Miami in the cold of Foxboro will be lots of fun for Patriots fan.

Overall the Patriots don't stack up really well, but I see them going 5-3 over the final stretch of the season with their losses coming to Pittsburgh, New York, and Green Bay to finish with a record of 11-5, 5-1, 8-4. For the first time in ten years the Jets will sweep the Patriots. For the first time in eight years the Jets will win the division and for only the third time in the last eleven seasons someone not named New England will win the division.

3. Miami Dolphins (4-4, 1-2, 2-4)
Yuck. Chad Henne won't throw to Brandon Marshall. The running game has been mediocre and unable to get going behind what should be a terrific offensive line and the defense is starting to wear down thanks to a banged up line. However, defensive coordinator Mike Nolan might be able to parlay another job out of this. He's done a phenomenal job with a really banged up line and mediocre safeties in the secondary. The Dolphins have a lot of potential, but they're not getting the play they expected from quarterback Chad Henne and the holes on defense are a problem as well. Still, this is a team that may be a quarterback away from really contending in the AFC. Their off-season is going to be closely watched.

Miami is a well-coached team. And they are the type of team that will stick with you for 60 minutes. They're pesky even with their quarterback situation. They just don't have enough to win six games in a difficult AFC.

Grade: B-
They are finding ways to win again, but the glaring flaw under center is being exposed. The expectations were much higher coming into the season and that's the reason for the grade.

Remaining Schedule: TEN, CHI, @OAK, CLE, @NYJ, BUF, DET, @NE

This is a very favorable schedule for Miami if they can win the games that matter, because they get two very nice home games late in the season against Buffalo and Detroit. If Detroit is without Matthew Stafford it won't be much of a game at all for the Lions. Tennessee is going to be a tough game, and Miami has yet to win a game at home, but eventually that's going to change. Chicago is a game where teams of equal talent face off, but the Dolphins are a much better coached team. The Dolphins also must survive a difficult road trip to Oakland (one of the toughest places to go for an east-coast team). Cleveland at home is a favorable game because of the inexperience at quarterback that limits the Browns offense. Buffalo and Detroit are obviously very winnable. The final game in New England could very well decide the final wildcard spot.

I think Miami picks up their first home win against a banged up Titans team. They'll outcoach the Bears and squirt out a win. Out in Oakland is a game I thought Miami would lose coming into the season and I'm not changing my stance. Cleveland is going to give them a test, but the Dolphins will win this one as well. At New York I see them falling. They'll then pull out wins at home over Buffalo and Detroit finishing the season on a five game home winning streak. So you may ask...how can I pick the Dolphins to finish the year losing four straight road games after winning their first four on the road? Those teams had a combined record of 11-21. Oakland is a tough place to play for any east-coast team and Miami playing in the cold of Jersey and Foxboro in December is not going to be pleasant. So I have Miami finishing 5-3 in the second half with a record of 9-7, 2-4, 5-7.

4. Buffalo Bills (0-8, 0-3, 0-6)
What can you say about the Bills? I guess they have heart. Even at 0-5 they've played their butts off the last three weeks, but have come up just short in all three games. They're not going to go 0-16, especially since they catch Detroit at the best time to catch them--fresh off a Matthew Stafford injury. Drew Stanton isn't going to do much, and that means the Lions have to adjust their game-plan to rely on Jahvid Best. Even so, the Lions secondary is full of holes. I'm sure Fitzpatrick will be under duress all game, but he moves well in the pocket and has found serious chemistry with Jerricho Cotchery-clone (early in his career) Steve Johnson. But outside of that the Bills are in disarray. They've already abandoned the 3-4 defense (which limits Shawne Merriman to end and his best days look behind him anyway) and they've been completely unable to stop the run no matter who is playing nose tackle (shocker!). I expected the Bills to finally bottom out this year, and you could tell they knew things were going to be bad when they gave up on the guy who got all the pre-season and training camp first team reps in Trent Edwards after just two games.

This team is going to be bad and they're going to be bad for a while. Bad coaching has been just the tip of the iceberg, but bad management has been the real problem. The Bills have needed a total rebuilding process for years, but keep trying to win now instead of blowing up the building and starting over. You have to build from the inside out. It's cliche, but if you don't build a strong foundation (the trenches) how can you expect the high-rise (stars) to stay up?

The Bills are going to need help at quarterback, tackle, center, and all over their front seven. There is talent here, but someone needs to really commit to building the trenches. Eric Wood, when fully healthy, is a good building block on the line (though I think he should be playing center). I'm not sure Andy Levitre will ever be the player the Bills expected him to be when they took him in the second round. Plus allowing guards like Derrick Dockery and Richie Incognito to walk along with tackles Jason Peters and Langston Walker to walk in recent years was a serious mistake. Walker is terrible in pass pro, but is a great mauler on the strong side. The Bills defensive line is in shambles as well with no blind-side pass rusher because of the total and complete failure of Aaron Maybin who like Vernon Gholston, Jarvis Moss, Jason Babin, and many other hybrid end/linebackers will fail to live up to the DeMarcus Ware level that was set.

So here's Buffalo's remaining schedule...

DET, @CIN, PIT, @MIN, CLE, @MIA, NE, @NYJ

Let's be honest nobody is going to come into Buffalo and try to throw the ball against them all day. Teams are going to be running and their going to be running a lot. They are going to win one game this season--this week against Detroit. Otherwise, Cedric Benson, Rashard Mendenhall, Adrian Peterson, Peyton Hillis, Ronnie Brown, Danny Woodhead/BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and Shonn Greene all have one banner day left in them this season...it's against Buffalo. Their final record will be 1-15, 0-6, 0-12