Buy or Sell: Miami Dolphins

Sometimes forgotten about after how busy the Jets were this off-season, Miami probably had the highest caliber off-season acquisitions in the NFL. Still, one of the biggest things that they need to reclaim the AFC East is Chad Henne to take the next step. He showed flashes, but will he do it?

2009 Finish -- 7-9, 3rd in AFC East
Key Acquisitions -- WR Brandon Marshall, ILB Karlos Dansby, S Chris Clemons
Key Departures -- WR Ted Ginn Jr., OG Justin Smiley

Not much in terms of turnover, but Miami definitely brought in two blue-chippers in Brandon Marshall and Karlos Dansby.

1. Chad Henne is the quarterback of the future. BUY.
His numbers weren't superb, but Henne showed great command of the huddle and led his team to a 7-6 record as the starter. He also was at his best during the fourth quarter. Henne did a lot of this with a running game that started to sputter as the season progressed and minimal weapons in the passing game. Now Henne has one of the best all-around receivers in football. Marshall is a threat to go deep, he can out-physical you, he can makes plays after the catch, and his hands continue to get tougher as the years go on. Marshall is a difference maker and now that's he back in Florida he should be a happy camper. So should Chad Henne because while Henne won't be putting up elite numbers, I would wager he'll throw 24 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, and at least 3500 yards. Henne has a tendency to hold onto the ball a little long, but he's got a quick release and a cannon arm so that makes up for his desire to keep pushing downfield.

2. The Dolphins running game. SELL.
I don't like their guards right now. Donald Thomas needs to stay healthy this season and Nate Garner struggled to get playing time in New York even during the pre-season. John Jerry is inevitably going to take one of their jobs, but how soon? Miami has to start moving away from this Wildcat. Teams are starting to figure it out, Ronnie Brown can't stay healthy, and Ricky Williams may be on his way out after this season. The Miami running game is one giant question mark.

3. Miami's defensive line. SELL.
Philip Merling may get suspended, Randy Starks is playing severely out of position at nose tackle, Jason Ferguson is suspended, and Jared Odrick may not be as good a fit for the 3-4 as I first thought. Paul Soliai really struggled at nose tackle last season even though he's got the right build. I don't know how Miami is planning on stopping the run.

4. Miami's pass rush. BUY.
Cameron Wake's got major upside and he should eventually work his way into the starting line-up while Anderson and Moses split time. Koa Misi is a project who will also slowly get worked in. The big thing though is Karlos Dansby. He's one of the best pass rushing inside backers in football, and he's going to command a serious threat. The other thing to love about Miami's pass rush is the potential that the secondary has. Sean Smith and Vontae Davis both need to work on their ball skills, but look like they could be just as good as the corner tandem in Cincinnati. Yeremiah Bell is an excellent strong safety option with his in-the-box style of play. If Chris Clemons plays up to the off-season hype he's getting (or if the Phins sign O.J. Atogwe) the secondary could carry Miami's defense.

5. Pat White will play in wildcat packages. SELL.
His NFL career looks like it's going to go down in flames. He was barely trusted with the ball last year--and for a good reason. He looked lost and all reports this off-season say he's just as lost this year as he was last year.

6. The Miami Dolphins are legitimate contenders this year. BUY.
They have the potential to have a filthy passing attack and in a quarterback driven league they also command what looks like one of the best young secondaries in football. The best way to get around possible struggles in the trenches is to be elite in two other areas--aerial assault and aerial defense.

Buy or Sell: New York Jets

We move onto the team that's moving next door to a different facility and a team that got very hot in December and found themselves in the AFC Championship Game ahead at halftime, only to be bested by the Colts high powered passing attack in the second half.

2009 Finish -- 9-7, wild card berth, lost in AFC Championship Game
Key Acquisitions -- RB LaDainian Tomlinson, WR Santonio Holmes, LG Vladamir Ducasse, OLB Jason Taylor, CB Antonio Cromartie, CB Kyle Wilson, S Brodney Pool, K Nick Folk
Key Departures -- RB Thomas Jones, RB Leon Washington, LG Alan Faneca, DE Marques Douglas, CB Lito Sheppard, S Kerry Rhodes, K Jay Feely

In an off-season where there was not much turnover, the Jets acquired five new starters this off-season and will have seven or eight different starters on Opening Day compared to last year's Opening Day. All of the moves they made were risk-reward moves.

1. The Jets running game will struggle without Thomas Jones and Alan Faneca. SELL.
Don't buy a word of it. Shonn Greene took Thomas Jones' starting job during the Jets playoff run. After the loss to Atlanta, Greene found himself getting the majority of the carries against Indianapolis (twice), Cincinnati (twice), and San Diego. During the Jets run up to the playoffs and in the playoffs Green rushed for 481 yards and two back-breaking touchdowns on an insane 5.8 yards per carry. As for Alan Faneca, he's been the worst linemen in New York, but has gotten the most attention because of his name. Ducasse's a raw rookie, but as a run blocker he projects as a force right away. Ducasse can't be too much worse then Faneca in pass protection, so it's a wash. The difference is that Ducasse is young with insane upside. Remember, Greene is the starter. Tomlinson will be getting 8-12 touches per game. Green is likely going to be closer to 20.

2. Mark Sanchez will take the next step. BUY.
He now has the freedom to make protection changes at the line and he has a full year under his belt in a very difficult offense to learn. But with a great running game and superb weapons in Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, Jerricho Cotchery, Dustin Keller, and Tomlinson/McKnight on check downs Sanchez's numbers should take a major step in the right direction. Sanchez's biggest problems came when Leon Washington went down last year. Now Sanchez has two effective check-down weapons in Tomlinson and rookie Joe McKnight. Don't expect him to put up elite numbers, but the Jets are going to be running a more balanced attack this year. I project Sanchez to throw for 3300 yards, 18 touchdown passes, and 12 interceptions.

3. The Jets secondary, which was the best in the NFL in 2009, has gotten better. SELL.
And sell it every which way until Sunday. Darrelle Revis is hands down the best corner in football, but he just lost arguably the best cover safety in all of football in Kerry Rhodes. While the Jets did improve talent wise at the number two corner spot upgrading from Lito Sheppard to Antonio Cromartie, Cromartie is a total gambler and the Jets may be susceptible against some big plays over the top because of it. If Brodney Pool stays healthy, maybe Cromartie can get away with it, but that's doubtful. Pool has had five concussions in a five year career. Revis Island will likely be unassailable (though matching last year's historic season would be ridiculous and is unlikely), the rest of the secondary will be a problem. I expect Kyle Wilson to take Cromartie's job by November, but corners develop slowly. I like the long-term prospects here for New York, but not this season.

4. Jason Taylor will do enough to earn the second year of his contract. SELL.
If he gets five sacks as a situational rusher I consider that a win. Bryan Thomas is a better cover linebacker and run defender. Pace is the best run defender on the team and also a better cover backer. Taylor is one-dimensional. When he's in it'll be on obvious passing downs. I don't see him making much of an impact. If he does, the Jets will have a great pass rush, but it's highly unlikely.

5. The Jets made a mistake replacing Jay Feely with Nick Folk. BUY BUY BUY.
Folk may not even make it through August as the Jets kicker. Feely may have struggled in the AFC Championship Game, but he was dynamite during the first and second rounds of the playoffs and all of the regular season. Folk has lost all confidence it seems.

6. The Jets are a legitimate contender. SELL.
This is a wildcard team--plain and simple. That means that there's a good chance that New York will miss the playoffs in a very competitive AFC. The long-term prospects look great, assuming New York can satisfy the contract demands of Darrelle Revis, Nick Mangold, David Harris, and Braylon Edwards and/or Santonio Holmes. They won't be able to lock up all five, but Revis and Mangold are certified locks to get re-signed. Harris is likely third in line. Edwards and Holmes will be competing all year to see who gets a long-term contract from New York. It's forseeable they both walk if New York feels that they can't afford to re-sign LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson who only has two years left on his deal. Bottom line though, too many gambles. Cromartie is going to be more of a hindrance then a help (and eventually Wilson will replace him). The Jets are relying on a rookie at guard, but as I've said I'm not too concerned with Ducasse starting (or former UNL beast Matt Slauson). What concerns me most is that the Jets did nothing to address their needs in the front seven. They didn't address the fact that Kris Jenkins is coming off a major knee injury and is in his 30's. The only excuse is that Sione Pouha was very good last year in his absence. However, 33 year old Shaun Ellis has still played very well at 3-4 DE, but how much more does he have in the tank? Mike DeVito will be a full-time starter for the first time in his career. Those are huge risks to take for a team that was only above average in stopping the run in 2009.

They're no better than a wildcard team. Certainly they could make a playoff run again with how they are built, but they won't win the division that's for sure.

Buy or Sell: New England Patriots

So as we inch towards Training Camp I've decided that it'd be a good idea to start giving an idea of where I'm going to be going with my season preview. What better way then to address the most controversial issues about the teams in a little game of buy or sell?

We'll start in the AFC East--specifically in Foxboro, Massachusetts.

New England Patriots
2009 Finish -- 10-6, 1st in AFC East, lost in wild card round to Baltimore
Key Acquisitions -- CB Devin McCourtey, ILB Brandon Spikes
Key Departures -- TE Ben Watson, LB Adalius Thomas

It was a quiet off-season in New England. The biggest splash they made was re-signing stud man-to-man corner Leigh Bodden to a four-year 22 million dollar deal--a very nice deal for a terrific man corner. Otherwise, New England said goodbye to Ben Watson and Adalius Thomas--both of whom weren't huge losses for New England.

The biggest loss was injury related. WR Wes Welker is going to probably start the season on the PUP thanks to devastating knee and shoulder injuries in the final week of the season against Houston. Randy Moss is in the final year of his deal, and likely won't be re-signed after it's over, which means that New England's window may be closing, because offensively they are much thinner then they have been in years past.

So--let's play buy or sell with the New England Patriots.

1. WR Julian Edelman will come into his own in Welker's slot role. BUY.
Edelman is a converted quarterback and a project, but last year showed flashes of ability in that New England spread. While he won't put up Welker production, he'll be a reliable target for Brady over the middle, which will cut down on the amount of attention Moss will receive over the top.

2. WR Brandon Tate will emerge as the split-end. SELL.
All I hear from the New England press is the rave about Brandon Tate. He comes from a pro-style offense, but Tate came into the league after suffering a severe knee injury his senior year of college at UNC. He only played in two games last season and didn't catch a pass. I don't have high hopes for any of New England's options at split-end. If it's not Tate, the Patriots will have to rely on either David Patten or Torry Holt, and they may not even be able to put up the obligatory Patriots numbers. It will also be interesting to see if Tom Brady's return to Earth last season had more to do with recovering from his injury or not having Josh McDaniels calling the plays.

3. Tom Brady's new contract. BUY
This is not as easy as you might think. Brady's numbers were statistically impressive in 2009, but he definitely didn't look like himself for the majority of the season. He didn't look particularly effective against Baltimore in the playoffs either. Going on 33 and a reconstructive knee surgery to boot, the Patriots might not be as willing to jump at giving Brady 100 million dollars despite what Bob Kraft says. The most likely scenario here is that Brady gets a shorter deal--around four years worth close to 70 million dollars. He'll likely earn more then Eli Manning recieved (average of 16.25 million per year).


4. The defensive front seven...SELL.
New England should be able to stop the run in 2010. They've got really nice depth at inside linebacker with Mayo, Spikes, and Gary Guyton. Plus, it always helps having one of the best nose tackles in football anchoring your 3-4. But will New England be able to get after the quarterback? Their top pass rusher is Tully Banta-Cain, but he's not the type of player who can command double teams. His best asset is being used in creative blitz situations or one-on-one--in short he's not a number one rusher. The Patriots drafted Jermaine Cunningham in the second round, which should show that they're just about ready to give up on Pierre Woods and Shawn Crable. Derrick Burgess re-signed for one year with New England, but I don't expect him to make much of an impact. New England's pass rush is going to be enormously inconsistent, if not well below average in 2010.

5. Has the game passed coach Bill Belichick by? SELL.
No, actually Belichick has done more than most to keep the evolution of the NFL moving forward. His dedication to a spread attack in New England has opened the door for college quarterbacks that never had a shot before--and now we see Denver taking a guy like Tim Tebow. If Tebow had been a senior in the 2006 draft, he likely wouldn't have gone in the first two rounds. The game hasn't passed Belichick by, he just needs to learn to let his coordinators call the plays.


6. Are the Patriots a legitimate contender in 2010? BUY.
Tom Brady can focus on the game instead of his rehab, Randy Moss seems as focused as ever, the Patriots are much younger and faster defensively, and they still have one of the best coaches in NFL History. Are there concerns? Certainly, the Patriots have to get Logan Mankins under contract. He's arguably one of the best three guards in football. New England also needs to find a way to manufacture a pass rush, because New England's great depth is countered only by their lack of an elite pass rusher. A return to the post-season is likely, and this may be their swan song--one final AFC East title, but it's going to happen.

Nike To The Rescue!

Fixed....

NBA FINALS PREVIEW

 

1. Los Angeles Lakers (57-25)

Championships: 15

Last Championship: 2009

First Round: 4-2 over Oklahoma City Thunder

Second Round: 4-0 Over Utah Jazz

Conference Finals: 4-2 Over Phoenix Suns

Best Play-Off Performer: Kobe Bryant 29.4ppg 5.1rpg 6.2apg

4. Boston Celtics (50-32)

Championships: 17

Last Championship: 2008

First Round: 4-1 Over Miami Heat

Second Round: 4-2 Over Cleveland Cavaliers

Conference Finals: 4-2 Over Orlando Magic

Best Play-Off Performer: Rajon Rondo 16.7ppg 5.3rpg 10apg

Previous Play-Off Meeting: 2008 Finals, 4-2 Boston.

Season Series: Tied 1-1

Most Intriguing Match-Up: The matured Pau Gasol, and Laker front-court vs. The Celtic front-court that embarrassed them two years ago.

There is no doubt that these are the two greatest franchises in basketball, but which one is better? Despite Celtics having a 9-2 edge in Finals match-ups, renown basketball analyst John Hollinger still listed Lakers at #1 in his NBA Franchise Rankings last year. I know what you are all thinking. How could you put the Lakers ahead of the Celtics when they lost 81% of their Finals match-ups against Boston and have two less titles? Well much of the Celtics success came during the Russell era, which was responsible for 11 of their 17 championships. Before and after the 1960's the league has belonged to the Lakers weather it be in Minneapolis or Los Angeles. The Lakers have been far more consistent than the Celtics, but rings are rings right? There are great arguments to be made for both franchises. I'm still leaning towards the Celtics but if Los Angeles wins this series I may actually give them the edge. If they tie or surpass Boston, then it is hands down Los Angeles, but I'm getting too far ahead of myself. Instead of talking about the legacy of the two franchises, let's focus on the legacy of an individual, Kobe Bryant.

This series is pivotal for Bryant's career. If he wins it will be very difficult to argue him out of the top 5 players of all time, and impossible to keep him out of the top 10. Some don't even have him in their top 10 right now (Bill Simmons and SLAM Magazine for example), despite having 4 rings amongst countless individual accolades. Isn't it a little ridiculous that an MVP, Finals MVP, 12 time all-star, 12 time all-league, 10 time all-defensive, 2 time scoring leader and 4 time champion needs a fifth ring to prove himself?  Well as always, Bryant is up for the challenge. If he leads L.A. to just their third Finals victory over Boston, then he is the best player not named Michael Jordan and the best to ever wear the purple and gold.

The story of the 2010 play-offs has to be the revival of the Celtics. I may have been too quick to write them off back in April. Can you blame me? Sure they started off strong, but then they meandered through the latter half of the season and finished with their lowest record and seeding since the arrival of Garnett and Allen. The Celtics prioritized health over seeding, because they believe that if Garnett was healthy  they would be on the verge of a 3-peat. While I respectfully disagree, they do have a strong argument considering the Boston 3 Party has never lost a play-off series.

David Stern probably wanted a Kobe-LeBron Finals match-up, but I think he will settle for the renewal of basketball's greatest rivalry. This isn't a Bird/Magic or Russell/Chamberlain match-up but these Finals tell a different story. The most iconic player of this era looks to complete his legacy by exacting revenge on the last team that defeated him in the play-offs as both teams try to build their prospective dynasties.

Last time these teams met, the Lakers were embarrassed. Their bigs were bullied, Kobe shot poorly and the Lakers allowed the biggest single game comeback in Finals history, at home. However, these are not the same teams that met two years ago. These are not the 2008 Celtics. Their bench is still strong but I'll take Leon Powe over Glen Davis and James Posey as my sixth man over Rasheed Wallace. Rondo is on the rise but Kevin Garnett is a shell of his former self, averaging just 14.9ppg and 8.2rpg compared to his previous play-off campaign (20.4ppg 10.5rpg) in 2008 and disappeared in this years Conference Finals. The Lakers have improved over the last two seasons. Pau Gasol has matured since being beat down by Garnett and has become the most complete post player in the game. Andrew Bynum was out of the 2008 Finals due to injury and could have made a difference down low where that series was won. Ron Artest is certainly a better 3-guard than Vladimir Radmanovic or Luke Walton. Kobe Bryant is having the best play-off run of his career (29.4ppg 5.1rpg 6.2apg) and coming off one of the best conference finals performances of all time (33.7ppg 7.2rpg 8.3apg). Don't get me wrong this will be a great series. In all probability this goes 7, and that is a big reason why I am picking Los Angeles. How can I bet against a game 7, against a Phil Jackson coached team lead by the best closer in the game, at home?

Prediction: 4-3 Los Angeles.

Pronger Lacks Class!

Chris Pronger is at it again. The man I have deemed the second best defenseman of the last decade (only behind Lidstrom) many times is making news again but this time for all the wrong reasons. Statistically as well as the trophy case shows "Lids" has clearly had a better career, however, the main thing that separates the two is now most evident, class. This is something Chris Pronger clearly does not understand judging by his actions following the first 2 games of this years Stanley Cup Final.

Throughout his amazing career Chris Pronger has been a force. He is the only dman to win the MVP and Norris trophy in the same season since Bobby Orr, he accomplished that in 2000 (Lidstrom never won an MVP). Pronger also is now taking part in his third Cup Final and already has won a ring thanks to his time with the Anaheim Ducks in 2007. While Pronger will someday be enshrined in the Hall of Fame and be remembered for all the positives, he will also be known for moments that make sports nation everywhere scratch their heads and say "grow up!"

At the conclusion of each of the first two games of this years finals Pronger skated across the ice to take home a souvenir. He picked up the game used puck and took it with him to the Flyers locker room. This is something that Lidstrom has never and would never consider doing. No one knows what he did with these pucks after that, Pronger has said he put them where they belong "in the garbage", but that is really besides the point. The point is that he is only doing this to get under the skin of Blackhawk goaltender Anti Niemi who obviously would have wanted the pucks from his first two career wins in a Stanley Cup Final. This seems to have worked to an extent since following game 2 former Flyers and current Hawk Ben Eager took offense and had some not so kind words for the 6ft 5' 250 pound future hall of famer. Pronger responded to Eager by slapping a towel in his direction. Fights and nasty words happen all the time in hockey big game or not and certainly are apart of the game, however, Eager should have done more then just yell at Pronger. To really show team unity and support for a teammate any Blackhawk outside their stars should have jumped Pronger as if they were a bunch of Tu Pac fans coming across a member of Junior Mafia.

Head games have been going on since the beginning of sports hundreds of years ago but Pronger has almost gone to far. Those pucks do not belong in the garbage, they belong on Niemi's mantle to represent his strong play. Pronger may be frustrated, as the Sharks were a series ago, that Chicago may now be winning thanks in part to Niemi between the pipes rather than in spite of him. What was a weakness has now become a strength for the Blackhawks. However, stealing those pucks shows a lack of respect for a worthy opponent and a guy who has become a great story of perseverance and hard work paying off, as well as thumbing your nose at the entire sport. This also creates a dark cloud over a series that has been very competitive and entertaining despite Prongers Flyers trailing 2 games to none so far.

I think Mr. Pronger needs to worry less about who takes ownership of the game pucks and be more concerned with how to stop Chicago's top line and maybe get Philly back in this series. As some advice for the Hawks, win or lose at the end of game 3 do whatever you have to do in order to obtain that puck. I don't care if you need bust Prongers leg with a lead pipe like Tonya Harding in the Olympics to do so, get the puck! If Niemi doesn't get the pleasure of taking home victory pucks then neither should Leighton. The race is now on to see which young goalie can add a puck from a victory in the Stanley Cup Finals to their trophy case first.

O.J. Atogwe: Can the Rams afford to let him go?

As I write this the St. Louis Rams have 15 hours to agree to a new contract with one of their best defensive players--safety O.J. Atogwe. Atogwe was franchised last off-season by the St. Louis Rams, but suffered a dislocated shoulder and a torn labrum in late November. He was put on IR by the, at the time, 1-11 Rams and missed the final four games. He opted for surgery on his shoulder and the Rams then gave up him a low-end restricted free agent tender, which he has refused to sign. Atogwe is one of the few RFA's who is eligible to become an unrestricted free agent if he does not sign his tender, which gives him a lot of leverage over St. Louis.

Atogwe has been one of the most underrated players in the league, quagmired on a bad defensive team and a franchise that has won just five games in the last three years. In the last four years Atogwe has picked off 18 passes, forced 14 fumbles, and recovered seven. He also has had 32 total pass deflections in the last four seasons. His coverage skills have improved steadily as each year has gone on. Last year on one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL Atogwe did not allow a single touchdown as a cover safety and had the 12th best opposing QB rating of safeties who played at least 750 snaps. Teams generally don't try to test him--he was only thrown at 31 times last season in 12 games. While he's not a stellar run-stopping safety, he's invaluable to a team that has struggled defensively for almost an entire decade.



The Rams have yet to come to an agreement with him. The shoulder injury certainly isn't helping his long-term prospects, and at 28, it can be argued that he may not have more than 2-3 good seasons left so teams are going to be shying away from giving him a long-term contract. That hurts his leverage, maybe evening out the leverage he has over St. Louis with the June 1st deadline. He also missed out on the majority of the early UFA big money.

Atogwe probably isn't going to see Kerry Rhodes or Bob Sanders money (around 7-8 million per year), but he can definitely get in the 5-6 million dollar range, which would make him one of the ten best paid safeties in football. Teams may choose to front-load his contract so that he becomes an easy release when he starts to hit the decline. Still, had he been an unrestricted free agent in March, he'd probably have cashed in like one of the best three safeties in football. Look for Dallas, Miami, San Diego, and possibly Chicago to make a play for Atogwe if he does hit the open market. My best guess is that he's going to wind up as a Dallas Cowboy to solidify what has quietly become one of the best secondaries in the NFL. Atogwe and Gerald Sensabaugh at safety with Terrence Newman and Mike Jenkins at corner is one of the most well-rounded starting secondaries in the league, and Dallas has very good depth as well with Orlando Scandrick at nickel corner and 2010 mid-round draft pick Akwasi Owusu-Ansah who will likely be a dime corner early in his career and try to jump into the nickel corner spot slowly.

Dallas would be a good spot for Atogwe, where he won't have to do much in terms of run support. Cleveland might not be a bad spot either if the Browns want to continue running Eric Mangini's Cover 3 secondary. Atogwe would likely play a similar role to Kerry Rhodes, who was the second best cover safety in the NFL this season. Atogwe should be a major player wherever he lands, and if he lands with a Super Bowl contender, watch out. He's a turnover machine and a disciplined cover man.