Conference Championship Weekend: Will it be an All Green Super Bowl?

So let's be honest here, nobody really thought the New York Jets were going to make it this far. Not even me. Even when I had them winning the AFC East in my preseason picks, I thought for sure they'd be out by the divisional round. After the 38-34 loss to Chicago in Week 16 I was trying to figure out if this was another case of Jay Cutler dominating the New York Jets defense or if it was a case of the defenses age finally coming to light.

Well based on the last three weeks it certainly doesn't look like this defense is old. They're playing with fire. They're playing with animosity. They're playing every snap like there is no tomorrow. The opening quarter against Indianapolis showed that the Jets were serious about playing tight coverage. They were serious about releasing a safety to play short swings and screens that have plagued the Jets all season. They have dared teams to go over the top in the playoffs, and that's been the most effective way to beat the Jets defense--over the top. But that's a gamble playing that way. The Jets front seven may be a makeshift front seven with a lot of age, but they've got high motor players. Mike DeVito, Sione Pouha, Shaun Ellis, Calvin Pace, David Harris, Bart Scott, and Bryan Thomas. None of them have ever played in a Super Bowl. Neither has Jason Taylor. He's just as hungry as any of them, and Taylor hasn't been good for much this year, but he's actually played better as the season went on--getting more consistent pressure on the quarterback.

But can they beat the Pittsburgh Steelers? Twice in one season? Both times in Pittsburgh? The Jets had never beaten Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh before the 22-17 win a month ago. Could the Jets really beat the Colts, Patriots, and Steelers on the road in three straight weeks? Beating three Super Bowl winning quarterbacks and likely future Hall of Famers? Admittedly the Colts were very watered down this year. The Patriots displayed youth they hadn't shown us since October in their 28-21 loss. What's Pittsburgh's weakness? Well, if Roethlisberger didn't bounce of defenders like a pin ball that would be a weakness for Pittsburgh. Big Ben loves to push the ball downfield and is great escaping rushers in the pocket. The Jets defenders are going to have to do what they did to Brady and hold their lanes. If they don't, expect a ton of big plays from Big Ben, but just as many sacks and many more "how the hell did he get out of that like Eli Manning against New England" moments.

Then there's Pittsburgh's vaunted run defense, which finished statistically as the second best run defense in NFL history. The Jets didn't do a bad job of moving the ball against Pittsburgh the last time they played. Greene and Tomlinson combined for 99 yards on 23 carries and provided an acceptable amount of run support for Mark Sanchez. Sanchez didn't have a pretty game against Pittsburgh stat-wise, but it was gritty and he led a couple of superb drives--showing outstanding command.

But Sanchez can't come out with the same early-game adrenaline he's had if he expects the Jets to win this week. He's been airmailing passes in the first quarter of every game this post-season. He can't do that against Pittsburgh. Not with Troy Polamalu in the line-up this time around.

A lot of talk has been about Maurkice Pouncey. The Pro Bowl rookie, who struggled at times with bigger nose tackles, was called out by fellow Pro Bowler Shaun Ellis. The Jets defensive end said Pouncey won't understand the Jets complex blitz scheme. One thing I will say, is that Pittsburgh's offensive line is at critical mass right now. It's a serious red alert with the amount of injuries and ailments plaguing them. Do the Steelers risk only dressing six offensive linemen again? One injury and back-up center Doug Legursky will be entering the line-up somewhere and the entire line will have to mish-mash.

But that's how it has been all season long. The Steelers are mixing and matching offensive linemen and to this point have been able to stay alive. Flozell Adams also may not be much of a pass blocker anymore, but the Steelers will badly need him if they expect to run on the formidable Jets rushing defense. It's going to be a game of inches, where turnovers could decide the entire thing. It'll be Baltimore-Pittsburgh without quite as much rivalry hatred, but definitely the level of intensity.

I am not going to pick the New York Jets. Really. It's outrageous to pick them to win twice in one season in Heinz Field.

But I really really really want to. Should I? This is incredibly difficult. Should I be a superstitious fan or should I say what I believe? Because I've been telling people all week that the Steelers are going to win. But I don't believe that. I don't think the Jets are out of gas. Not yet.

New York 15, Pittsburgh 14

Nick Folk in the playoffs? It's just crazy enough to really happen.

And that moves us over to Green Bay and Chicago. They've played twice this season already and split the series. Chicago knows that all the pundits are talking about is how they're old and they had an easy road here (well if they're not talking about it they should be). They should also be talking about the fact that the last time these two teams played in Soldier Field it took 18 Packer penalties and a late fumble for Chicago to win on a field goal as time expired.

If I'm Chicago I'm motivated in this game. The last time when they won...they didn't really win. They were handed the game.

Because if they're not as motivated as Green Bay, they won't win. Mike McCarthey always gets the Packers up and ready to play. And one thing I can assure you? The Packers may be frustratingly inconsistent, but they're not going to fail to show up after the performance they put up the last time they were in Soldier Field. If the Bears aren't motivated by pundit talk, the Packers are going to be motivated by what they left on the field last time.

This game is a rivalry game. The chances of seeing a blowout are slim. What we saw last week was a motivated Green Bay team against a young Atlanta team. Atlanta, much like Kansas City, made those terrible mistakes that young teams tend to make. Atlanta's mistakes weren't as egregious as Kansas City's, but the result was the same.

Chicago is old. But that's not a bad thing in the playoffs. Now that they're in, they're in. They've got the experience. Age is something to fear at the start of the regular season. Get ready for a blood bath though. Chicago has figured out that they don't have the weapons to throw it or the ability to protect Cutler so they protect him by running with Matt Forte and Chester Taylor. The Packers have struggled to stop the run this year, but I won't be shocked at all if we see Cutler throw a few balls right into the hands of the Packers secondary--and unlike Seattle they're not going to drop it.

Chicago's defense is old. There is no denying it. I've been saying it all year and it's pretty incredible what they're front seven has been able to do. They are able to manufacture a pass rush, where as Green Bay's scheme and the incredible motor of Clay Matthews provides their rush.

So let's put it this way--Chicago does it ugly. Green Bay does it sexy. They both do it. There's one difference--nobody is playing better than Aaron Rodgers right now. He's locked in. And it doesn't look like that's going to change anytime soon.

Green Bay 27, Chicago 20

It's going to be an All-Green Super Bowl.