Monday, January 24, 2011
Monday's Picks
OKC +4 vs. Hornets: The Hornets enter tonights game red hot, winners of 8 straight and are 6-2 ATS. During that stretch they defeated the Hawks by 41 and Spurs by 24. New Orleans is also 18-5 at home this season. So why pick against a team that is on an 8 game win streak and has held opponents under 100 points in 6 of those games? Simply because the Thunder are a better team. OKC is 2-0 against the Hornets this season, already beating New Orleans once in their own building. The Thunder are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as underdogs and are coming off a three point victory over the Knicks. The Thunder have struggled on defense this season, but the Hornets do not have an answer for Kevin Durant. New Orleans may very well once again hold their opponent under 100 points, but they will not cover.Pick: Okc
Houston-2.5 vs Minnesota: Houston has struggled against the spread of late, going 4-10-2 ATS, but luckily for them they get to play the lowly Timberwolves. Minnesota is 1-7 in their last 8 games, and lost by 9 points or more in all but two of those games. Kevin Love continues his dominance and showcasing why he is an all-star, but nonetheless Minnesota still plays no defense. The rockets come in to tonights game on a 2 game losing streak but are only five games under .500. The rockets have the talent to make a second half run and sneak into the playoffs, its a stretch but they have talent.
Pick: Houston
Season: 6-7-1
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Saturday's Picks
Dallas -4.5 vs Nets: Dallas is struggling of late, losing 7 of 8. The Nets are currently on a 2 game winning streak after they themselves struggled, losing 6 in a row. The Mavs have been awful ATS as well going 1-6 in their last 7 games. So why still pick them after saying how bad they have been? Because its the Nets, the 12-31 Nets. Yes they have went 4-1 ATS in their last five, but nonetheless Dirk is finding his groove again and the Mavs are a flat out better team than New Jersey.
Pick: Dallas
Atlanta +3 vs Charlotte: The hawks are coming off a 100-59 loss against the Hornets, so its safe to say they should come out with something to prove tonight. When you lose by 41, while only scoring 59 your most likely going to have a chip on your shoulder. Atlanta is a good team, the 5th best team in the east. Charlotte is not so good, but have been playing hard for interim coach Paul Silas. The Bobcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games while the hawks are 5-5 ATS. The fact that the Hawks are coming off such a bad loss is the reason you have to take them. They are professional athletes, they do have some pride.
Pick: Hawks
Season: 5-6-1
Pick: Dallas
Atlanta +3 vs Charlotte: The hawks are coming off a 100-59 loss against the Hornets, so its safe to say they should come out with something to prove tonight. When you lose by 41, while only scoring 59 your most likely going to have a chip on your shoulder. Atlanta is a good team, the 5th best team in the east. Charlotte is not so good, but have been playing hard for interim coach Paul Silas. The Bobcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games while the hawks are 5-5 ATS. The fact that the Hawks are coming off such a bad loss is the reason you have to take them. They are professional athletes, they do have some pride.Pick: Hawks
Season: 5-6-1
Friday, January 21, 2011
Conference Championship Weekend: Will it be an All Green Super Bowl?
So let's be honest here, nobody really thought the New York Jets were going to make it this far. Not even me. Even when I had them winning the AFC East in my preseason picks, I thought for sure they'd be out by the divisional round. After the 38-34 loss to Chicago in Week 16 I was trying to figure out if this was another case of Jay Cutler dominating the New York Jets defense or if it was a case of the defenses age finally coming to light.
Well based on the last three weeks it certainly doesn't look like this defense is old. They're playing with fire. They're playing with animosity. They're playing every snap like there is no tomorrow. The opening quarter against Indianapolis showed that the Jets were serious about playing tight coverage. They were serious about releasing a safety to play short swings and screens that have plagued the Jets all season. They have dared teams to go over the top in the playoffs, and that's been the most effective way to beat the Jets defense--over the top. But that's a gamble playing that way. The Jets front seven may be a makeshift front seven with a lot of age, but they've got high motor players. Mike DeVito, Sione Pouha, Shaun Ellis, Calvin Pace, David Harris, Bart Scott, and Bryan Thomas. None of them have ever played in a Super Bowl. Neither has Jason Taylor. He's just as hungry as any of them, and Taylor hasn't been good for much this year, but he's actually played better as the season went on--getting more consistent pressure on the quarterback.
But can they beat the Pittsburgh Steelers? Twice in one season? Both times in Pittsburgh? The Jets had never beaten Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh before the 22-17 win a month ago. Could the Jets really beat the Colts, Patriots, and Steelers on the road in three straight weeks? Beating three Super Bowl winning quarterbacks and likely future Hall of Famers? Admittedly the Colts were very watered down this year. The Patriots displayed youth they hadn't shown us since October in their 28-21 loss. What's Pittsburgh's weakness? Well, if Roethlisberger didn't bounce of defenders like a pin ball that would be a weakness for Pittsburgh. Big Ben loves to push the ball downfield and is great escaping rushers in the pocket. The Jets defenders are going to have to do what they did to Brady and hold their lanes. If they don't, expect a ton of big plays from Big Ben, but just as many sacks and many more "how the hell did he get out of that like Eli Manning against New England" moments.
Then there's Pittsburgh's vaunted run defense, which finished statistically as the second best run defense in NFL history. The Jets didn't do a bad job of moving the ball against Pittsburgh the last time they played. Greene and Tomlinson combined for 99 yards on 23 carries and provided an acceptable amount of run support for Mark Sanchez. Sanchez didn't have a pretty game against Pittsburgh stat-wise, but it was gritty and he led a couple of superb drives--showing outstanding command.
But Sanchez can't come out with the same early-game adrenaline he's had if he expects the Jets to win this week. He's been airmailing passes in the first quarter of every game this post-season. He can't do that against Pittsburgh. Not with Troy Polamalu in the line-up this time around.
A lot of talk has been about Maurkice Pouncey. The Pro Bowl rookie, who struggled at times with bigger nose tackles, was called out by fellow Pro Bowler Shaun Ellis. The Jets defensive end said Pouncey won't understand the Jets complex blitz scheme. One thing I will say, is that Pittsburgh's offensive line is at critical mass right now. It's a serious red alert with the amount of injuries and ailments plaguing them. Do the Steelers risk only dressing six offensive linemen again? One injury and back-up center Doug Legursky will be entering the line-up somewhere and the entire line will have to mish-mash.
But that's how it has been all season long. The Steelers are mixing and matching offensive linemen and to this point have been able to stay alive. Flozell Adams also may not be much of a pass blocker anymore, but the Steelers will badly need him if they expect to run on the formidable Jets rushing defense. It's going to be a game of inches, where turnovers could decide the entire thing. It'll be Baltimore-Pittsburgh without quite as much rivalry hatred, but definitely the level of intensity.
I am not going to pick the New York Jets. Really. It's outrageous to pick them to win twice in one season in Heinz Field.
But I really really really want to. Should I? This is incredibly difficult. Should I be a superstitious fan or should I say what I believe? Because I've been telling people all week that the Steelers are going to win. But I don't believe that. I don't think the Jets are out of gas. Not yet.
New York 15, Pittsburgh 14
Nick Folk in the playoffs? It's just crazy enough to really happen.
And that moves us over to Green Bay and Chicago. They've played twice this season already and split the series. Chicago knows that all the pundits are talking about is how they're old and they had an easy road here (well if they're not talking about it they should be). They should also be talking about the fact that the last time these two teams played in Soldier Field it took 18 Packer penalties and a late fumble for Chicago to win on a field goal as time expired.
If I'm Chicago I'm motivated in this game. The last time when they won...they didn't really win. They were handed the game.
Because if they're not as motivated as Green Bay, they won't win. Mike McCarthey always gets the Packers up and ready to play. And one thing I can assure you? The Packers may be frustratingly inconsistent, but they're not going to fail to show up after the performance they put up the last time they were in Soldier Field. If the Bears aren't motivated by pundit talk, the Packers are going to be motivated by what they left on the field last time.
This game is a rivalry game. The chances of seeing a blowout are slim. What we saw last week was a motivated Green Bay team against a young Atlanta team. Atlanta, much like Kansas City, made those terrible mistakes that young teams tend to make. Atlanta's mistakes weren't as egregious as Kansas City's, but the result was the same.
Chicago is old. But that's not a bad thing in the playoffs. Now that they're in, they're in. They've got the experience. Age is something to fear at the start of the regular season. Get ready for a blood bath though. Chicago has figured out that they don't have the weapons to throw it or the ability to protect Cutler so they protect him by running with Matt Forte and Chester Taylor. The Packers have struggled to stop the run this year, but I won't be shocked at all if we see Cutler throw a few balls right into the hands of the Packers secondary--and unlike Seattle they're not going to drop it.
Chicago's defense is old. There is no denying it. I've been saying it all year and it's pretty incredible what they're front seven has been able to do. They are able to manufacture a pass rush, where as Green Bay's scheme and the incredible motor of Clay Matthews provides their rush.
So let's put it this way--Chicago does it ugly. Green Bay does it sexy. They both do it. There's one difference--nobody is playing better than Aaron Rodgers right now. He's locked in. And it doesn't look like that's going to change anytime soon.
Green Bay 27, Chicago 20
It's going to be an All-Green Super Bowl.
Well based on the last three weeks it certainly doesn't look like this defense is old. They're playing with fire. They're playing with animosity. They're playing every snap like there is no tomorrow. The opening quarter against Indianapolis showed that the Jets were serious about playing tight coverage. They were serious about releasing a safety to play short swings and screens that have plagued the Jets all season. They have dared teams to go over the top in the playoffs, and that's been the most effective way to beat the Jets defense--over the top. But that's a gamble playing that way. The Jets front seven may be a makeshift front seven with a lot of age, but they've got high motor players. Mike DeVito, Sione Pouha, Shaun Ellis, Calvin Pace, David Harris, Bart Scott, and Bryan Thomas. None of them have ever played in a Super Bowl. Neither has Jason Taylor. He's just as hungry as any of them, and Taylor hasn't been good for much this year, but he's actually played better as the season went on--getting more consistent pressure on the quarterback.
But can they beat the Pittsburgh Steelers? Twice in one season? Both times in Pittsburgh? The Jets had never beaten Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh before the 22-17 win a month ago. Could the Jets really beat the Colts, Patriots, and Steelers on the road in three straight weeks? Beating three Super Bowl winning quarterbacks and likely future Hall of Famers? Admittedly the Colts were very watered down this year. The Patriots displayed youth they hadn't shown us since October in their 28-21 loss. What's Pittsburgh's weakness? Well, if Roethlisberger didn't bounce of defenders like a pin ball that would be a weakness for Pittsburgh. Big Ben loves to push the ball downfield and is great escaping rushers in the pocket. The Jets defenders are going to have to do what they did to Brady and hold their lanes. If they don't, expect a ton of big plays from Big Ben, but just as many sacks and many more "how the hell did he get out of that like Eli Manning against New England" moments.
Then there's Pittsburgh's vaunted run defense, which finished statistically as the second best run defense in NFL history. The Jets didn't do a bad job of moving the ball against Pittsburgh the last time they played. Greene and Tomlinson combined for 99 yards on 23 carries and provided an acceptable amount of run support for Mark Sanchez. Sanchez didn't have a pretty game against Pittsburgh stat-wise, but it was gritty and he led a couple of superb drives--showing outstanding command.
But Sanchez can't come out with the same early-game adrenaline he's had if he expects the Jets to win this week. He's been airmailing passes in the first quarter of every game this post-season. He can't do that against Pittsburgh. Not with Troy Polamalu in the line-up this time around.
A lot of talk has been about Maurkice Pouncey. The Pro Bowl rookie, who struggled at times with bigger nose tackles, was called out by fellow Pro Bowler Shaun Ellis. The Jets defensive end said Pouncey won't understand the Jets complex blitz scheme. One thing I will say, is that Pittsburgh's offensive line is at critical mass right now. It's a serious red alert with the amount of injuries and ailments plaguing them. Do the Steelers risk only dressing six offensive linemen again? One injury and back-up center Doug Legursky will be entering the line-up somewhere and the entire line will have to mish-mash.
But that's how it has been all season long. The Steelers are mixing and matching offensive linemen and to this point have been able to stay alive. Flozell Adams also may not be much of a pass blocker anymore, but the Steelers will badly need him if they expect to run on the formidable Jets rushing defense. It's going to be a game of inches, where turnovers could decide the entire thing. It'll be Baltimore-Pittsburgh without quite as much rivalry hatred, but definitely the level of intensity.
I am not going to pick the New York Jets. Really. It's outrageous to pick them to win twice in one season in Heinz Field.
But I really really really want to. Should I? This is incredibly difficult. Should I be a superstitious fan or should I say what I believe? Because I've been telling people all week that the Steelers are going to win. But I don't believe that. I don't think the Jets are out of gas. Not yet.
New York 15, Pittsburgh 14
Nick Folk in the playoffs? It's just crazy enough to really happen.
And that moves us over to Green Bay and Chicago. They've played twice this season already and split the series. Chicago knows that all the pundits are talking about is how they're old and they had an easy road here (well if they're not talking about it they should be). They should also be talking about the fact that the last time these two teams played in Soldier Field it took 18 Packer penalties and a late fumble for Chicago to win on a field goal as time expired.
If I'm Chicago I'm motivated in this game. The last time when they won...they didn't really win. They were handed the game.
Because if they're not as motivated as Green Bay, they won't win. Mike McCarthey always gets the Packers up and ready to play. And one thing I can assure you? The Packers may be frustratingly inconsistent, but they're not going to fail to show up after the performance they put up the last time they were in Soldier Field. If the Bears aren't motivated by pundit talk, the Packers are going to be motivated by what they left on the field last time.
This game is a rivalry game. The chances of seeing a blowout are slim. What we saw last week was a motivated Green Bay team against a young Atlanta team. Atlanta, much like Kansas City, made those terrible mistakes that young teams tend to make. Atlanta's mistakes weren't as egregious as Kansas City's, but the result was the same.
Chicago is old. But that's not a bad thing in the playoffs. Now that they're in, they're in. They've got the experience. Age is something to fear at the start of the regular season. Get ready for a blood bath though. Chicago has figured out that they don't have the weapons to throw it or the ability to protect Cutler so they protect him by running with Matt Forte and Chester Taylor. The Packers have struggled to stop the run this year, but I won't be shocked at all if we see Cutler throw a few balls right into the hands of the Packers secondary--and unlike Seattle they're not going to drop it.
Chicago's defense is old. There is no denying it. I've been saying it all year and it's pretty incredible what they're front seven has been able to do. They are able to manufacture a pass rush, where as Green Bay's scheme and the incredible motor of Clay Matthews provides their rush.
So let's put it this way--Chicago does it ugly. Green Bay does it sexy. They both do it. There's one difference--nobody is playing better than Aaron Rodgers right now. He's locked in. And it doesn't look like that's going to change anytime soon.
Green Bay 27, Chicago 20
It's going to be an All-Green Super Bowl.
Friday's Picks
Lakers-1 vs Denver: In La's last five game's they are just 1-4 ATS and are giving up 100 ppg during that stretch. Denver on the other hand comes into the game 4-1 ATS in their last 5. Carmelo Anthony exploded in his last game scoring 35 points and adding 7 rebounds, now that the trade talks have died down melo may be more focused. The problem for me is that Denver doesn't play any defense, giving up 100 points in 6 of their last 10 games. With the line being only 1 its a safe bet to take Kobe and the Lakers to beat Melo and the Nuggets.
Pick: Lakers
Knicks +9 vs Spurs: The last time these two teams met up the spurs got blown out by 13 while also giving up 128 points. Don't expect that same type of defensive performance this time around by San Antonio. The Spurs are 23-2 at home this season and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5. The Knicks on the other hand come in losers of 4 in a row and 5 of their last 6. The Spurs will be looking to avenge that early season beating they received and the fact that they are coming off of a days rest makes this pick a little easier.
Pick: Spurs
Season: 4-6
Pick: Lakers
Pick: Spurs
Season: 4-6
Thursday, January 20, 2011
NFL Draft: N2N
Stats: Herzlich unlike are other two players profiled was not a top 10 recruit or profiled by USA Today. Herzlich however was a Honorable Mention on the Freshmen All-American list. His Junior season he was ACC Defensive Player of the Year and a 1st team All-American according to Rivals.
Freshmen yr: 42 tackles, 1 sack, 1 int
Sophomore yr: 97 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles
Junior yr: 110 tackles, 6 int's, 2 forced fumbles
Senior yr: 65 tackles, 4 int's 2 forced fumbles
Analysis:
Run defense: Has good quickness towards the line of scrimmage against the run. Slices through gaps, showing good burst, lateral agility and instincts to consistently meet the ballcarrier near the line of scrimmage. Good balance, agility and vision to flow through the trash and the line of scrimmage, as well as laterally to string plays wide. Has an explosive pop to disengage quickly from blockers. Has the prototypical long arms, good upper-body strength and good balance required for breaking free quickly. Herzlich goes all out, all the time but what else would you expect from a guy who beat cancer.
Pass defense: Is very balanced for his size and can drop back quickly and bat down balls and has solid footwork. Has good, but not great, overall agility and speed for sticking with his receiver or tight end assignment, and will stay with his man and or between them and the ball. Overall has good ball skills and does a good job watching the quarterbacks eyes as he drops back.
Tackling: Just by looking at his stats you can tell that Herzlich is a very good tacklers. Has very good form and can wrap up and bring down smaller more athletic players. Overall a excellent tackler who can make the tackle in between the lines and also in space.
Overall: Excellent tacklers and shows good hands with the 12 career interceptions. The drop in production is understandable, after all he battled cancer. Has all the intangibles a GM would look for in a player. Can not state enough that he beat cancer and came back to have a successful senior season.
Projection: 2nd round
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