September's over kids. It's starting to get cold. The Bills are already playing for Andrew Luck and I'm shocked to see that there are just three unbeaten teams left three weeks in.
It's been a wacky start to the NFL season with the lockout looming over us.
So the Hammer had a rough start to the season going 6-10 and 9-7 in picks in the first two weeks. But last week a 12-4 record brought me back into the thick of things.
So let's get things started...
San Francisco (0-3) at Atlanta (2-1)
The wheels fell off last week as the 49ers got embarrassed by the Kansas City Chiefs. As bad as the offense has been, and as much as Jimmy Raye's firing was probably justified, he's a scapegoat for a team that's failed to show up two out of three weeks. The defense has been downright appalling in those two games, and against Kansas City the Niners defense was gauged in the running game and bit hard on trick plays. The Niners are in the least enviable situation of anybody (though perhaps Harbaugh and Luck are BOTH going to San Fran when the season ends). They now travel across the country to take on a very hot Atlanta Falcons team. I'm still not a believer in the Falcons, and I think that the 49ers are 100% desperate, but they should have been desperate last week. I've always been a big supporter of Mike Singletary, but he seems like the Bill Stewart of the NFL. He talks the talk, but he doesn't walk the walk. Or maybe San Francisco's age on defense is finally catching up to them. Either way, the Niners need a near miracle to win this game in the difficult Georgia Dome. It'll be close at halftime, but Atlanta still wins this game.
Atlanta 20, San Francisco 13
New York Jets (2-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-3)
The Jets haven't played well in Buffalo in recent years, and that was capped off with a six turnover, fourteen penalty performance last year in an overtime loss to the struggling Bills. The Jets return to Buffalo, but this time they're not on a two game losing streak. They've won two in a row and the passing offense is finding a rhythm. The Jets face their weakest front seven of the young season (and perhaps all season) in Buffalo's makeshift 3-4. This should be the game where the running game really lets loose between Tomlinson and Greene. The Bills offense found life last week with Ryan Fitzpatrick, but the Bills also had the fortune of playing an extremely inexperienced New England secondary. New York got torched through the air by Chad Henne last week, but Buffalo's offensive line could face some serious problems that Miami's didn't. Still, no Calvin Pace or Darrelle Revis leaves the Jets much more vulnerable. It shouldn't be too much of a problem though.
New York 27, Buffalo 14
Cincinnati (2-1) at Cleveland (0-3)
I want to do nothing more than pick the Cleveland Browns, who have blown three leads in three games. But I just can't do it. They seem to always find a way to lose, which is going to spell the end for head coach Eric Mangini. The Browns could have had bigger leads in each of those games, but turnovers--the killer of best-laid gameplans has destroyed Cleveland. It doesn't matter who is starting this week for the Browns at quarterback. The Bengals secondary is going to lay waste to them. Cleveland's not a bad team. Someone has to light a spark for them to finally win close games and it's not going to be Jake Delhomme. The Browns defense has also been very mixed, but I'm not expecting to see Carson Palmer torch them. It's going to be a nip and tuck low scoring game.
Cincinnati 16, Cleveland 13
Detroit (0-3) at Green Bay (2-1)
The poor Lions are running into a buzzsaw in a Green Bay team that just committed 18 penalties in a devastating divisional loss. The Packers sometimes play down to their opponents (a staple of the Mike McCarthey Packers), but they will still pull this one out. No Matthew Stafford for Detroit and a still listless Detroit defense that can't get off the field on third down will give Green Bay an easy third victory.
Green Bay 34, Detroit 13
Denver (1-2) at Tennessee (2-1)
Yes, Denver is going to throw the ball. That's because they're backfield has been devastated by injuries and they're defense hasn't played well (no surprises) forcing them to play from behind. Chris Johnson is going up against a defense that has done a decent job against the run, but they also now face one of the best tandems of line and back in the league. The Broncos have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 63.6% of their passes, 7.4 YPA, and a rating of 96.9. Young hasn't been as good as last season, but when he takes care of the ball the Titans win games. This isn't going to be a blowout, but I fully expect the Titans to win this game.
Tennessee 30, Denver 23
Seattle (2-1) at St. Louis (1-2)
A pivotal division matchup that could determine who has the inside track early in the NFC West. Okay you can stop laughing now. Seattle has been an anomaly this season. They've been living off of the difficulty of playing in Seattle, but when they're on the road...they're bad. St. Louis has played much better football this season and the offensive line is playing very well right now. In fact, St. Louis' offense has seemed capable. Better execution on special teams and a miracle on defense will lead to St. Louis playing consistently good football, but the Rams have been in every game. Bradford gets a bend-but-don't-break secondary that has been torched through the air but has forced turnovers and limited the touchdowns. Bradford's going to take what Seattle gives him with his makeshift receiving corps. and find a way to get his second victory in the Edward Jones Dome.
St. Louis 19, Seattle 16
Carolina (0-3) at New Orleans (2-1)
Boy this Carolina offense is bad. I wish I could blame the play calling for the struggles of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, but teams are stacking the box and forcing the Panthers to throw and until somebody in Carolina proves that they can throw the ball. The Panthers get an aggressive defense and a ballhawking secondary that has been of ill use because the Saints have struggled to stop the run this season. Maybe Carolina can establish the run early and won't have to turn so quickly to an anemic passing game, but it's unlikely.
New Orleans 28, Carolina 10
Baltimore (2-1) at Pittsburgh (3-0)
I can't believe I'm saying this but give me Charlie Batch. Yes, Charlie Batch. They guy who has been collecting no-show paychecks with Pittsburgh for the better part of the last decade. The guy who was once benched for Rutgers quarterback Mike McMahon. I'll take him and this outrageously good Steelers defense against a banged up Raymell Rice. I don't know if the Steelers defense is going to maintain this success, but it's a rivalry game and this is the type of game where you can essentially throw whose playing on offense out the window. The question is which offense is going to be less frustrated by the time the two minute warning rolls around to lead a game-winning field goal drive. Believe it or not...I'm taking Pittsburgh. I guess because they're at home. These teams are almost mirror images of each other and a big part of me wants to take Baltimore because Flacco has been so good early in his career in close games, but I feel obligated to pick Pittsburgh for some reason.
Pittsburgh 10, Baltimore 7
Houston (2-1) at Oakland (1-2)
Oakland's a tough place to play, but the Raiders offense is really only going to be able to throw the ball and they're not built to do that--especially with banged up receivers. Arian Foster is going to run wild against the Raiders defense, and that should open things up for Matt Schaub early on. If the Texans have it their way though, Foster will shield the passing game so that Andre Johnson won't have to be on the field as much.
Houston 31, Oakland 14
Indianapolis (2-1) at Jacksonville (1-2)
So when does the Trent Edwards era officially begin in Jacksonville? I hope it's this week because he's going to get a major shock when he sees what going up against the Indy pass rush is like (could it be better then the Jets in 09?). Indianapolis is on a major role (and so is Peyton Manning) and the Jaguars have a secondary that's been sliced and diced to nobody's surprised all September. Rumor around Jacksonville is that if the team gets blown out again Jack Del Rio is going to be out of a job. There was a time when Del Rio was the hottest coach in the league...now his seat is hotter than anybody's. Goodbye JDR.
Indianapolis 34, Jacksonville 7
Washington (1-2) at Philadelphia (2-1)
I've been getting a lot of flack all week at U92 radio for my faith in the Washington Redskins in this game. I believe Donovan McNabb is going to lift this team up by its bootstraps. The defense has been appalling the last two games, but they have an outrageous amount of potential against a Philadelphia team with a very banged up offensive line. The Eagles secondary has had a nice start to 2010, but they've been aided by teams running the ball on them and a very weak schedule. The Eagles have beaten up two embarrassments for franchises in Detroit and Jacksonville. This is still a weak test, but a bigger test then either of those two organizations. Mike Shanahan may not be the right coach for the Skins, but he's still a great coach in his own right.
Washington 20, Philadelphia 17
Arizona (2-1) at San Diego (1-2)
As an NFL fan I feel that Ken Wisenhunt should be publicly stoned for replacing Kurt Warner with Derek Anderson. He had to have some idea that Matt Leinart wasn't going to be the guy...or maybe it's just his bias against young quarterbacks. Either way it's a crime watching Derek Anderson destroy what was a superb offense in 2009. Somebody get Arizona a real quarterback. This is just hard to watch. Dan Williams is going to be deactivated this weekend for reporting overweight to practice (and he's actually played okay). Ryan Matthews should have a much better matchup now and he already had a good one against the 31st ranked rushing defense in the NFL.
San Diego 27, Arizona 10
Chicago (3-0) at New York Giants (1-2)
It's pretty crazy that the Bears are still underdogs going into this game against a team that's looked awful the last two weeks and beat a pretty mediocre Panthers team. That being said, the Giants are in panic mode and the Bears can't keep living off of close victories. That's not the mark of a consistently good team. That's the mark of a decent team with a little luck. The Bears have allowed a lot of yards through the air, but they've also limited touchdowns. Eli Manning must take care of the ball or this is going to be a long season for the Giants. If they fall to 1-3 Coughlin's seat is going to get very, very hot. That Giants offensive line needs some help, and a healthy William Beatty would be a nice start. Too bad he's out. Shawn Andrews MUST step up this week. If Julius Peppers plays to his full capability he could really annoy Manning. All the signs point towards a Bears win, but I'm going to go with my inexplicable gut and pick the Giants.
New York Giants 27, Chicago Bears 20
New England (2-1) at Miami (2-1)
Miami's coming off a rough division loss at home. They now host New England who they have traditionally been very strong against in Miami. Early season Miami is a tough place to play, and while Brady should have his way with this Miami secondary, I'm expecting the Pats defense to continue it's early struggles. This one could be a shootout, but Miami's defense is better coached and late in the game they should be able to come up with that critical turnover they need to win this game.
Miami 31, New England 24
I'm 27-21 on the season.
Week 1: 6-10
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 12-4
So if that pace continues I should go 14-0 this week right?
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