No computer for two weeks. NFL season set to begin?
Damnit. I already missed Thursday Night's opener (for the record I had New Orleans winning that game). So let's get right into it. Who should you be watching this season? You're about to find out.
We'll start with the AFC East.
This is the toughest division to predict. The only thing I'm positive about is that Buffalo will finish dead last and will be fighting for the first overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. New England, New York, and Miami all have severe weaknesses. New England has the best passing game hands down in the division, but one of it's most important cogs, Wes Welker, is still not fully healthy (though he will be playing in the opener against Cincinnati). They've also been crushed by the injury bug early losing Nick Kazcur (the man supposed to replace Logan Mankins), Leigh Bodden (perhaps the most underrated corner in the NFL), Ty Warren (a key cog next to Wilfork), and Brandon McGowan (he was going to have a much smaller role this year though). The Jets are the hot team of the moment, but they're relying on a quarterback who is still very inexperienced by NFL standards, an injury prone (though dominant) Kris Jenkins, and the prayer that Darrelle Revis won't get injured after the first hit he takes in a real game situation. Then there's Miami. Besides an offense that looked downright dreary in the pre-season, the Dolphins czar Bill Parcells has stepped down amidst rumors he is unhappy with Chad Henne's development, a defensive line that is in disarray, and the release of Jake Grove--the man who was supposed to be the answer at center.
Oddly enough, the Bills are the team I have the least to criticize about right now, but that's because there problems are well-documented and much more traditional then the problems that the three teams who will be battling for the AFC East crown have. All that being said...
1. New York Jets 11-5, 5-1, 8-4
Yes I'm going to buy the hype. I don't want to, but I'm going to. The personalities aren't a concern to me, because they love playing for Rex Ryan. He infuses some youth into this team and the players can relate to that. Logic suggests that Mark Sanchez is going to take another step this year. His weapons are better, his running game is going to be outstanding, he's got a full year in the same offense under his belt, and he can lean on the defense as a crutch. The pressure really isn't on Sanchez unless the Jets running game falls apart--but that's seriously unlikely. Shonn Greene's field vision is comparable to Thomas Jones, and his power, burst, acceleration, and straight-line speed (as well as wear and tear) are all much better than Thomas Jones. Add in the pass catching utility threat that LaDainian Tomlinson has become and New York's running game becomes a hydra-like monster. New York has a difficult schedule, but the combination of talent, swagger, Rex Ryan motivational speeches, and Ryan's scheme make New York a legitimate contender in an AFC that's in the middle of a power shift. But they're not a Super Bowl team. Yet.
Breakout Player: Shonn Greene, RB
MVP: Kris Jenkins, NT
2. New England Patriots 9-7, 4-2, 6-6
It's going to be a frustrating season for New England fans. The injury bug has bitten New England early, and usually that's a sign that it's going to happen often. It's a totally random occurrence, but when it strikes it strikes hard. New England's already lost three starters for the season and one of their reserve safeties. With Wes Welker hobbled coming into 2010 the outlook looks much dimmer than it ever has with the combination of Brady and Belichick. That being said Brady to Moss is still one of the best QB-WR combos in the league. If Welker gets to full speed quickly it's even more dangerous. My biggest concern is that Welker's surgically repaired knee doesn't hold up during the early part of the season. And obviously losing a player like Leigh Bodden also has me nervous. So with a rookie corner and a second year guy stepping in, the Patriots inexperience in the secondary could be a fantasy football players dream. New England's pass rush is also very questionable. Banta-Cain isn't the type of player who is going to command double teams from opposing offenses. Marques Murrell and Jermaine Cunningham will split time early in the season, but neither the career back-up Murrell nor the rookie Cunningham should inspire confidence in the Pats pass rush. With Ty Warren out for the year, Mike Wright and Ron Brace will have to battle for his job, and I can't see either of them being as good as the very experienced Warren. Brace is more of a natural nose, Wright a journeyman. This is a team that's going to have to rely on it's passing game and it's ability to stop the run late. Close games where New England has the ball last should still belong to them, but the holes on this team are rampant.
Breakout Player: Brandon Spikes, MLB
MVP: Tom Brady, QB
3. Miami Dolphins, 8-8, 3-3, 6-6
Chad Henne has the best long-term weapon in Brandon Marshall. Marshall's going to be a Dolphin probably for the rest of his career, and will easily spend his best years with the Phins. The Dolphins are also an exceptionally well-coached team, and have always been able to overcome their flaws and post a respectable season with Tony Sparano at the helm. But I have a couple of issues that once again make Miami a team that will have to overachieve to make the playoffs. To start, the Dolphins offensive line scares me. It's potential is outrageous, but the amount of turnover they went through is insane. There will only be two returning starters from last year's unit. Miami's defensive line is also in flux. Nose tackle Jason Ferguson has retired and end Philip Merling is out for the year. That means Randy Starks, signed to play end, will have to move out of position to play nose. Jared Odrick is going to be forced into the starting line-up immediately and Miami could struggle in the running game early. It's pretty clear though that the power in this division is moving to a struggle between New York and Miami. But the Phins aren't there yet, and if Chad Henne doesn't take at least one step forward, Miami could be in trouble. You certainly can't rely on Ronnie Brown. As talented as he is, Brown has failed to stay healthy for a full season four times in his five year career. And the one time he stayed healthy for a full regular season he went down with a career threatening injury in the playoffs. Add in the benching of rookie Sean Smith and a group of safeties that struggle over the top and Miami has too many holes to be a real contender. It also doesn't help that this team has questionable starters on the edge in their 3-4. Miami's defense could be a major sore spot this year, and Miami will have to overachieve to get to 8-8.
Breakout Player: John Jerry, OG (ROOKIE)
MVP: Karlos Dansby, ILB
4. Buffalo Bills, 1-15, 0-6, 1-11
There's a question mark everywhere you turn and all it takes is one injury to make Buffalo a one-trick pony on offense. This is a team that overachieved last year (and that's saying something) thanks to a ball-hawking secondary. Buffalo's best shot at winning games is forcing turnovers, but teams are going to run it at well against a team starting rookie nose tackle Torrell Troup. On offense, C.J. Spiller is an exciting prospect, but running behind an appalling offensive line, Spiller will have to prove he deserves to be the feature back (which I don't think he will) early in the season before Lynch and Jackson get healthy. Quarterback play is appalling with a quarterback in Trent Edwards who is essentially David Carr in the huddle. He provides zero leadership and is afraid to throw it downfield. Mark Buffalo as an early contender for Jake Locker, Ryan Mallett, Andrew Luck...whomever you like best.
Breakout Player: C.J. Spiller, RB
MVP: Lee Evans, WR
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