The Hammer's NFL Predictions (AFC North)

God I hate the AFC this year. This division's best quarterback is out for the first four games, the guy who used to be the best quarterback (Carson Palmer) might have his arm fall off sometime in November, the best overall team in the division failed to get it's big-armed quarterback an actual deep threat (Anquan Boldin is NOT a deep threat), and the Browns decided it was a good idea to bring in a quarterback who threw 18 interceptions in 11 games last season (and yet he's looked the best out of all of them this pre-season).

So let's delve into the AFC North. It's a division that's completely up in the air. Right now the smart money is on Baltimore, but Cincinnati can repeat this season if they survive a four game stretch without Antwan Odom.

1. Cincinnati Bengals, 10-6, 3-3, 7-5
As skeptical as I am of Carson Palmer, Terrell Owens, Cedric Benson, and this Bengals offense Palmer is fully healthy for the first time in ages. This team won't be quite as effective running the ball as in 2009 with undrafted free agent Dennis Roland starting at right tackle, but the mauler could prove to be a steal later in the season. Defensively, there might not be a better team in the AFC outside of New York, and certainly there is not a team that is as set for the future as Cincinnati. Their defense is young, fast, and aggressive. The interior line anchored by Domata Peko and Tank Johnson is superb, and they have the great run-stuffing Pat Sims to spell them. At end, Antwan Odom and Justin Geathers compliment each other very well. Geathers is an excellent run defender who knows how to stay at home. Odom is a very physical pass rusher, but he needs to be on the field for sixteen games. Keeping linebackers Rey Mauluga and Keith Rivers healthy will also be a key in Cincinnati. The Bengals also have two of the highest potential players in the league in Carlos Dunlap and Michael Johnson. Whether they ever put it all together is anyone's guess, but the Bengals don't necessarily need those guys to do anything other than spell their big guns. It's extremely difficult to throw against this secondary anchored by the physical Leon Hall and the playmaking Jonathan Joseph. The Bengals biggest weakness will be throwing over the top, but Hall and Joseph are good enough corners to play in a deep cover three if the Bengals choose to. The pressure is on Marvin Lewis because Cincinnati has no more excuses.
Breakout Player: Jermaine Gresham, TE
MVP: Domata Peko, DT

2. Cleveland Browns, 9-7, 3-3, 6-6
My sleeper team in the AFC is in Cleveland. The Browns are well on their way to becoming the best team in Cleveland (sorry about that Ohio Valley natives). But honestly, this is a team with solid potential. Eric Mangini isn't a great game-day coach, and you know that'll cost the Browns a few games, but Mangini has always been excellent at putting together solid teams. Mike Holmgren made a few questionable moves (like bringing in Jake Delhomme), but the Browns are moving to a West Coast Offense and getting out of the Mangini-Daboll vertical attack (they didn't have the pieces for it). But Mohammad Massaquoi should benefit big time from the transition to the West Coast attack. If Delhomme takes care of the ball this season like he did in the pre-season, the Browns will be in every game. They have easily the most underrated defense in football anchored by up and coming stud Athyba Rubin. Rubin anchored the Browns defense last year during the four game winning streak. Shaun Rogers is moving to end in the Browns 3-4 because of Rubin's play last year. With Rogers at end, and the perennially underrated Kenyon Coleman in Mangini's read-and-reach, the Browns defensive line has all of a sudden become a big strength. Cleveland's starting linebackers are much better than they were a year ago with Chris Gocong kicking inside to play next to D'Qwell Jackson (when he's fully healthy). Scott Fujita will be the team's primary run stopping OLB (like Bryan Thomas with New York) while Matt Roth acts as the teams keynote pass rusher. Look for some noise off the bench with Marcus Benard who made life miserable for Ben Roethlisberger last December. The secondary is also outrageously deep. Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald were both solid corners, but the acquisitions of Shelden Brown and Joe Haden will push McDonald to the nickel or dime corner role. Brown will likely line up in the slot and play some safety. Haden will line up on the opposite side of the field as Wright. In the secondary the Browns have good in-the-box safeties, but will need rookie T.J. Ward to step up early if Mike Adams can't handle free safety duties.

Offensively, the running game losing rookie Montario Hardesty is a big blow, but the Browns have the potential to be a dangerous running team and can use some Wildcat with Josh Cribbs and Chansi Stuckey. Joe Thomas and Alex Mack are two of the better linemen in the league, and the Browns may strike gold with veteran Tony Pashos who is a solid run blocking tackle. If Eric Steinbech stays healthy expect Cleveland to be able to run the ball very well in 2010.
Breakout Player: Mohammad Massaquoi, WR
MVP: Ahtyba Rubin, DT

3. Baltimore Ravens, 8-8, 3-3, 5-7
Let the upsets continue. I love Joe Flacco and Ray Rice, but I'm not sold on Baltimore. And that's even with the great work John Harbaugh has done with this team. Baltimore failed to acquire a true deep threat for Joe Flacco and his cannon arm. Anquan Boldin doesn't add any new dimension to the Ravens offense that wasn't already there as he's a YAC guy who runs with a lot of force. On the offensive line, the Ravens don't know how long they'll be without Jared Gaither at right tackle. And one of my favorite players in the league Michael Oher has not proven himself at left tackle in the NFL (his position this year). Defensively Baltimore better hope Terrell Suggs showing up in good shape this year means he'll actually contribute to the pass rush. The Ravens will have no problem stopping the run with the likes of Haloti Ngata and Kelly Gregg anchoring that defensive line, but the secondary is in shambles. Ed Reed is starting the season on the PUP. Fabian Washington will start for Baltimore coming off a season ending ACL injury last November. He won't be at full strength (no one ever is). Dominique Foxworth is out for the season. Lardarius Webb will struggle also coming back from an ACL tear. The Ravens safeties outside of Reed are in-the-box thumpers who can't cover downfield, and the trade for Josh Wilson was a desperation move. The Ravens are almost there, but that secondary grades out as a failure for 2010. This team is going to be a lot like the 09 Steelers.
Breakout Player: Ed Dickson, TE
MVP: Joe Flacco, QB

4. Pittsburgh Steelers, 7-9, 3-3, 6-6
Make no mistake the Steelers have plenty of talent. Peter King picked the Steelers to win it all (not that his opinion means much) and for a while I was on the bandwagon as well...then Willie Colon went down for the season and he was replaced by Flozell Adams. Double ouch. It was already going to be an offensive line in flux with the addition of rookie Maurkice Pouncey. Now the best linemen on the team is done for the year. It's going to hurt particularly in those first four games. I don't think the Steelers go any better then 1-3 in those first four without Big Ben. Defensively this team is starting to age. Hampton, Farrior, and Harrison are getting ready to hit their decline years. Troy Polamalu is nearing the decline years as well, and it could be sped up by all the injuries. And sometimes, talent aside, off-season events can really hurt a team's chances. Early distractions are never good, and the last time Roethlisberger had an off-season like this the Steelers went 8-8 and missed the playoffs.
Breakout Player: Mike Wallace, WR
MVP: Casey Hampton, NT