Rookies are reporting in Berea, Ohio and San Antonio, Texas. The first first rounder (Dez Bryant) is signed to a contract and I celebrated my grandmother's 77th birthday tonight. Time for power rankings. My full season predictions will be coming out within the next few weeks. It will include, standings, playoff predictions, awards, fantasy impact, team analysis, and the all-underrated and all-overrated teams. So look out for that one coming at the end of this month or early August.
So for now let's just be content with my power rankings.
1. New Orleans Saints
On a matter of principle the Super Bowl champion has to start number one. But that's not where the Saints are going to finish this season. This was a defense with a lot of mojo last year and catching up to the high-powered offense is what won New Orleans its first Super Bowl title. But don't expect a repeat performance. Look at the 2005 Cincinnati Bengals as a perfect example. They took their first division title with an underachieving defense that came up with a lot of turnovers that they turned into points. In 2006 they fell back into mediocrity. You can blame part of that on Carson Palmer playing most of the year while still rehabbing from his playoff ACL tear, but the Saints have a similar problem on defense. Darren Sharper was a beast in pass defense last year. Besides picking off nine passes in centerfield, Sharper also held opponents to the lowest completion percentage of all starters who played over 900 snaps. But Sharper's great career is coming to an end and that decline is really going to be hit hard thanks to off-season microfracture surgery. New Orleans should still have no problem winning the NFC South. The Falcons and Panthers aren't ready to overtake them and Tampa Bay is going to be a perennial gutter team.
2. Green Bay Packers
There has only been one thing holding back Green Bay for the last two seasons and it's the same thing that makes Green Bay so incredibly dangerous and gives them dynasty potential--Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers came into the league as a developmental quarterback with high upside and he's developed exactly as Ted Thompson and Packers faithful hoped he would. He's a high-octane threat who also makes great decisions. Right now he looks like he could very well be the next Peyton Manning, and while he's stayed healthy the last two seasons, I expect him at some point to deal with some injuries like he did earlier in his career. That being said, my biggest concerns about Green Bay involve two things--the suspension of Johnny Jolly (which Green Bay prepared for by drafting Mike Neal and C.J. Wilson). They can also avoid a big loss from Jolly by playing either Ryan Pickett or 2009 1st round pick B.J. Raji at DE. The Pack have a lot of versatility without Jolly, so I'm not concerned. This defense should be top five in the league again with a deep secondary that will only get better when rookie Morgan Burnett cracks the starting line-up. My biggest concern is Mike McCarthy. He's shown that along with Ted Thompson he knows how to build a roster and develop young talent, but can he manage a team now? That's his next step. Football, unlike baseball, requires a two-fold commitment by coaches--roster building and managing. McCarthy has shown he can develop a great roster, but can he foster it into a champion? Only time will tell if McCarthy is going to go the same way Eric Mangini went.
3. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are very similar to Green Bay and have probably the single most underrated defense in the NFL. Wade Phillips and Jerry Jones have built the deepest front seven in football, particularly on the defensive line. Marcus Spears and Igor Olshansky can split time with Jason Hatcher and Stephen Bowen who both do a terrific job in their separate roles. Hatcher is an excellent pass rusher and pairs with Marcus Spears as the pocket collapsing ends in the 3-4, while Olshanksky and Bowen do a great job clogging passing lanes with their excellent size, creating pressure, and most importantly tying up blockers in the running game. Pair that with one of the best pass-rushing nose tackles in Jay Ratliff, a superb group of pass rushing linebackers that includes the league's best edge rusher DeMarcus Ware and 2009 breakout player Anthony Spencer, and a secondary that includes the well established Terrence Newman and the rising star Mike Jenkins. The big hole is going to be at free safety. Can Alan Ball (no relation to the creator of Six Feet Under and True Blood) do what Ken Hamlin couldn't? Offensively, Dallas' explosive passing game is going to open things up for Felix Jones, Marion Barber, and Tashard Choice. At this point there is only one question--will Doug Free be able to best Flozell Adams? Adams seriously declined in the passing game, but will Free be able to match his power run blocking? Dallas' biggest question is in Doug Free.
4. Indianapolis Colts
Our first foray into the AFC where we are starting to see a serious shift in power. The old dogs New England and Indianapolis are about to hit a major decline and Pittsburgh's season is looking troubled with no Ben Roethlisberger for at least a month and Willie Colon out for the season. Make no mistake though, as long as the Colts have Peyton Manning they are a threat to win a championship every single season. With the return of Anthony Gonzalez the Colts are four deep at receiver and if there's ever been anything that's going to get them all the way--it'll be having four guys who could start for just about any team in the league. Manning never needs a great offensive line for pass blocking purposes thanks to Manning's pre-play reads, fast release, and lightning quick decision making, but if Joseph Addai and Donald Brown are going to actually contribute this year the Colts have to find a way to get better run blocking from the entire line. Defensively it's the same old Indianapolis story--teams who let Indianapolis take the lead and are forced to pass will have to deal with the Colts fast defense pinning back their ears and cheating to the pass rush. Establishing the running game early is still the only way to beat Indianapolis. The AFC South should be there's again.
5. Baltimore Ravens
Are the Ravens a legitimate contender? Yes. Is it because of Anquan Boldin? No. The Ravens still haven't found a legitimate deep threat to stretch defenses (Donte Stallworth's signing will wind up being meaningless). However, Boldin is going to take over Derrick Mason's role, and having them together is going to mean a lot of safety and security for Flacco with two excellent possession receivers and one of the best all-purpose backs in the game--Ray Rice. Baltimore added two rookie tight ends who have potential to hit the deep seam and finally exercise Flacco's deep ball. The Ravens are also moving the more athletic Michael Oher over to the left side and the behemoth mauler Jared Gaither is moving over to the strong side. Defensively the Ravens still have a great front seven and they settled into new coordinator Greg Mattison's defense nicely after the bye week. Terrell Suggs is poised for a bounce-back season. A healthy secondary won't hurt the Ravens either. Flacco's natural progression looks like he could be in for a big, big year. Baltimore is a clear-cut contender in the AFC. With Pittsburgh missing Roethlisberger for a month and losing Willie Colon and Cincinnati failing to improve an anemic passing game the table is set for Baltimore to take the AFC North.
6. Minnesota Vikings
It's not even that interesting anymore to follow Favre. Everyone knows he's going to come back for his 20th season and continue to make it difficult on Peyton Manning to break his records. The Vikings are once again loaded offensively, but defensively there are some concerns in the secondary. Cedric Griffin is coming off a bad ACL tear in the NFC Championship game and will likely be hindered most of this season. The Vikings signed Lito Sheppard, who was probably the worst starter on New York's defense last season. The other big question: can Favre possibly match what he did in 2009? It's unlikely. Chances are that 2009 was a blip on the radar. 2010 won't be as bad as 2008, but Favre's numbers won't come close to 2009's. They'll probably be pretty good numbers, but not quite as incredible as last year's campaign.
7. New York Jets
There has never been more pressure on the New York Jets then in 2010. The off-season acquisitions, the new stadium, and Hard Knocks make this season one of high pressure, intensity and expectations. But this is where I think the drop off of elite teams begins. However, this doesn't mean that New York can't become an elite team. I am just not ready to give them that title before the regular season has begun considering their second year head coach and second year quarterback. The fates of Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan are intertwined. They need each other to succeed. New York has no shortage of star power and their weapons look good on paper, but there are some concerns about an aging defense that didn't do much to address the lack of depth in the front seven. While Mark Sanchez and Shonn Greene look to build off their great playoff performances behind the best offensive line in the AFC (even with rookie guard Vladamir Ducasse likely starting), the Jets defense has to overcome it's limitations. Kris Jenkins has to fully return from his torn ACL (but Sione Pouha was a more than capable nose tackle last year), the Jets have to work with a limited rotation at end, and they need to get into a position to use Jason Taylor correctly--purely in pass rushing situations. More so, Antonio Cromartie, who is going to be playing for a big contract when he hits free agency in 2011, needs to focus on playing best for the New York Jets and not for himself. The big interception numbers are nice, but Cromartie has to realize that like in San Diego he isn't going to have an elite safety backing him up in centerfield. Darrelle Revis will also have to adapt to life without Kerry Rhodes. I expect a guy with his work ethic to have no transition problems, but anything is possible in the NFL. Expectations are enormously high, but the Jets should be able to run the ball, score in the red zone, and use exotic blitz schemes. There's just one question left: can they win the close games? Their entire season may depend on it.
8. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are finally ready to leap over the Arizona Cardinals. That leap may not be permanent, but if ever there was a year it's this year with Warner retiring and Boldin in Baltimore. San Francisco's Alex Smith will finally play in the same offense two years running and his weapons are the best they've been in his whole career. Michael Crabtree seriously exceeded my expectations after his major holdout and looks like he could be the next Anquan Boldin. Vernon Davis is a mismatch against every defense in the NFL, and Frank Gore is a threat both out of the backfield and behind an offensive line that added two excellent run blockers in the first round of the draft--Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis. Once they're inserted into the line-up San Francisco could be downright dangerous, and may even run away with the NFC West. It depends almost entirely on Alex Smith, but if last season was any indication he's much better at moving the offense and the team is tailoring their system to a more shotgun based offense. But don't underestimate Mike Singletary's love of single back and i-formation's. They're not going anywhere. Defensively, the biggest question in San Francisco is in their secondary. Can the aging Nate Clements and Shawntae Spencer handle the duties?
9. San Diego Chargers
There are a ton of reasons to be down on San Diego this year, and this would be the ideal year for Oakland to try and swoop in and steal the division title after they got rid of JaMarcus Russell and brought in the game-manager Jason Campbell. San Diego is without a legitimate nose tackle for the second straight year, and certainly can't expect late-round rookie Cam Thomas to come in right away and start and I don't think that Shawne Merriman is likely ever going to regain his form. Add in San Diego's need for some safety help over the top and they definitely have some holes, but like Indianapolis this is a team whose success starts and ends with its quarterback Philip Rivers. Rivers shouldered the load all last season, but this year he'll be without Vincent Jackson for at least three games, perhaps more depending on if he's serious about this holdout. And on the offensive line? Marcus McNeill may be holding out too. Still, the Ryan Matthews selection adds some much needed spice to the Chargers running game. Offensively the Chargers shouldn't have much problem. On defense there are going to be some growing pains.
10. New England Patriots
This is a big season for the New England Patriots, and it could very well be the last one for Bill Belichick. He's proven everything he needs to prove in the NFL (though no championships in a post-Spy Gate world) and with Brady in the final year of his contract and no deal imminent there's a definite possibility that New England's time is over. Brady is fully healthy, but despite positive reports there's a good chance that Wes Welker will be out until late October and there have still been no positive talks with Logan Mankins. The Patriots defense is extremely young and very deep, but they have a totally unproven pass rush and a questionable running game. Missing two of the most important factors to winning a title won't get them deep in the playoffs, and may not get them in at all. Fortunately though, they have Tom Brady and that's more than enough.
11. Tennessee Titans
The Titans ceiling is extremely high for the upcoming year, and if anything holds them back it's going to be a defense that still lacks a pass rush. Derrick Morgan may need to start right away, but his rookie season is in question after getting arrested in the off-season. It's pretty clear that Vince Young has turned a corner, and despite his off-season altercation, all reports out of Nashville say that Young is going to be even more efficient then last year. With his already incredible talent, a better understanding of Mike Heimerdinger's playbook, and the return of his confidence Young is poised to break-out along with last year's first round pick Kenny Britt. There's all of a sudden a ton of speed on Tennessee's offense with the addition of Damian Williams and the potential for Jared Cook to come of prominence. Either way, the Titans are a quarterback away from having one of the most dangerous offenses in the NFL, and Young was able to quarterback the Titans to an 8-2 record last season without much defense help. If Tennessee makes a play to get Albert Haynesworth back then you can count this team very much in the race for the AFC South.
12. Carolina Panthers
My final playoff slot goes to the Carolina Panthers. Losing Julius Peppers hurts, but the Panthers have been preparing for life after Peppers and proved it when they took Everette Brown in the 2nd round in 2009. Carolina's ability to stop the run is still in question, but they have a nice group of linebackers and are solid on the edge. Tank Tyler and the undersized Nick Hayden are joined by former Georgia Bulldog Corey Irvin who may very well crack the starting line-up in 2010. But what intrigues me about Carolina is their offense. Matt Moore showed last season when he went 4-1 as a starter with 8 TD's to 1 INT that he can do what Jake Delhomme couldn't--manage a game while DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart bring home the meat and potatoes. Moore's only job will be to take care of the football on third down and in the red zone--something he was very good at doing last year. Steve Smith and Jordan Gross should both be ready for Opening Day, but the Panthers really can't afford to miss a beat. They are one of those teams who could miss the playoffs with a slow start.
13. Cincinnati Bengals
This is a team that has grown on me as the off-season has progressed. With the way they ended last season they've proven that their one-dimensional offense could be a problem. It all comes down to Carson Palmer's arm--and it's been through a lot. If his arm isn't through the mill, and Palmer can play a full five months without getting hurt the Bengals may be legitimate Super Bowl contenders with their ability to run the ball and their great defense. On the defensive side, Antwan Odam has to stay healthy this year. He tore up the league the first month of the season before hitting the IR. Odom's recovery from a torn achillies is said to be ahead of schedule, and he'll rejoin a team with strong pass-rushing upside with young and talented physical specimen like Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap. Johnson is moving to linebacker, and if Marvin Lewis can get the most out of those two raw talents, the Bengals could be a mirror image of the 2007 New York Giants. Almost the entire season comes down to Carson Palmer and if his arm can hold up, and if it can't, it might be time for Cincinnati to make a change at quarterback. It's incredible to think that the 2009 AFC North Champions are a sleeper, but they are.
14. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are another team whose season may be decided entirely by quarterback play. The Cardinals offensive line still isn't among the league's best, but it's at a point where they get a decent enough push in the running game and they have a bevy of talented backs at their disposal. The loss of Anquan Boldin won't hinder a very deep receiving corps that includes one of the three best receivers in the league. Defensively, the Cardinals look terrific on the defensive line and should be a shoe-in to create space for their linebackers and control the run--even with rookie Dan Williams penciled in as a possible starter at nose tackle. In the secondary, the Cardinals added the best cover safety in football in Kerry Rhodes. While there are a lot of reports about Rhodes being a prima donna who hasn't been making big plays the last two years, there's no denying that he locks down the deep center of the field better then any safety currently living. But Arizona has a lot of questions at number two corner, and their pass rushing situation doesn't look promising with veterans Clark Haggans and Joey Porter. On the inside, the loss of Karlos Dansby was a huge blow, as he is the most complete linebacker in football. The elephant in the room of course is Matt Leinart. All accounts say that Leinart has won the starting job, but will he deliver the ball as quickly as Warner did? Has his timing, release, and arm strength improved? Arizona's got plenty of talent, but there are too many question marks to call them a playoff team in 2010.
15. New York Giants
It should come as no surprise to anyone that I don't have the Giants as a playoff team in 2010. I've never been sold on Eli Manning and I think the Giants are still struggling to recapture the incredible pass rushing dynamo that put Tom Brady on his backside in 2007. That being said the Giants have an incredibly deep defensive line as usual, and rookies Jason Pierre-Paul and Linval Joseph simply add to that phenomenal depth. There's a lot of hype about second year receiver Hakeem Nicks, and it's not without justice. Nicks looked superb for a rookie receiver last year, but that wasn't as a starter. This year he battles Mario Manningham for that title. Regardless, the Giants will run a lot of three and four receiver sets so expect to see the other Steve Smith, Nicks, and Manningham on the field a lot. Together they form an extremely dynamic, versatile trio of targets for Manning. Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw share a similar versatility in the backfield, and Jacobs seems to have a fire lit in him by the hype Bradshaw's been receiving this off-season. The biggest question for the Giants is whether or nor the offensive line is too old. I can't say it'd shock me if the Giants line started to wear down in December and gave way to William Beatty and Mitch Petrus who are both waiting in the wings. Defensively, I'm also nervous about the linebacker situation. Clint Sintim will take over as a 4-3 OLB after playing in the 3-4 his entire collegiate career (and playing sparingly at 4-3 OLB as a rookie). Keith Bulluck's acquisition is also puzzling as the veteran whose nearing the end of his career will start at middle linebacker for the first time in his career. That's a recipe for disaster in the run department. The Giants are fairly deep at corner with the solid Corey Webster, the unheralded Terrell Thomas, and the highly talented Aaron Ross. Ross' hamstring should be fully healthy after derailing his entire 2010 season. Regardless, the Giants also need a fully healthy Kenny Phillips back at safety to make up for Antrel Rolle who struggles mightily in both the run game and in coverage, but makes up for it occasionally with elite ball skills. The Giants are full of questions, and they should be in contention for a playoff spot, but will likely show their true colors in December.
16. Pittsburgh Steelers
Well this was a team I didn't think people should sleep on in 2010, but the loss of Willie Colon could derail the entire season. By far Pittsburgh's best offensive linemen, Colon's injured achillies will force him to miss all of 2010. Along with Roethlisberger's suspension it looks like what could have been a special season in Pittsburgh is heading down the drain fast. Leftwich has proven he can provide a spark off the bench, but hasn't been a capable starter since he was a Jaguar. The Steelers best-case scenario is a 2-2 record heading into the bye week with wins over Atlanta and Tampa Bay, because Tennessee on the road along with a highly charged Baltimore team could spell disaster for Steelers fans who are underrating the difficulty of their first four games. Defensively the Steelers should be solid in 2010 with a fully healthy Casey Hampton and a pair of talented rookie pass rushers to take some pressure off of LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison. A healthy Troy Polamalu would also be a plus. The Steelers are definite playoff material, but the start of the season is likely going to hinder their 2010 campaign.
17. Houston Texans
Everybody's favorite sexy sleeper, right? Not for me. The words that are etched into my mind when I think of Houston are: "not sold." Elite quarterback? Check. Immensely talented receiving corps? Check. Incredibly dynamic pass rush? Check. But I still see an inconsistent offensive line that has holes, a defense that will be missing maybe it's most important player from the previous year for the first four games, a potential contract holdout in Andre Johnson, a rookie corner starting right away (and corners develop notoriously slower then most positions), and an unsettled running back situation. Enjoy the fantasy numbers, because they probably won't project into more than eight wins. Houston's first four games are very unique. They will switch between Super Bowl contender (Indy and Dallas) and cellar dweller (Washington and Oakland) in the first four weeks. Coming out of that with two wins should be doable, but Houston's second place finish in the AFC South last year means they play the second place schedule this year. That's going to mean two brutal fights with the Jets and Steelers--two teams that have traditionally owned Houston. Matt Schaub has still only been able to stay healthy for one full season so I'm not completely sold on him doing it again. And if he doesn't stay healthy whatever slim chance Houston had of making the playoffs is gone.
18. Cleveland Browns
A team that I am much higher on than most, the Browns have done a great job this off-season adding depth and talent to a defense that finished the year on a hot streak. Mixed with Jerome Harrison the Browns rode a four game winning streak to finish 5-11 and save Eric Mangini's job. The Browns are likely going to make Harrison more of a pass catching back in 2010 with Montario Hardesty receiving the brunt of the carries and goal line duties, which makes Hardesty an early candidate for the offensive rookie of the year award--especially behind an offensive line that when fully healthy boasts the best left tackle in football, one of the best up and coming centers in the game, and one of the best guards in the game. The Browns could ride their running game to a wildcard spot...if Jake Delhomme can take care of the ball. The Browns also have the capability of being one of the few teams to legitimately run the wildcat this year with Josh Cribbs, Chansi Stuckey, and Seneca Wallace. If Jake Delhomme plays like Trent Dilfer did for Baltimore a decade ago, the Browns are the sleeper of the AFC. If not, they should still be able to salvage a .500 year. Don't expect to see Colt McCoy unless the Browns completely fall apart. And McCoy won't help them at all anyway--he's just a mobile pop-gun from a system offense.
19. Miami Dolphins
Boy it's been a rough off-season for the Miami defensive line. Jason Ferguson suspended for eight games...and now he's retiring. They have no set nose tackle to run their 3-4 besides Paul Soliai who struggled mightily last season in that role after Ferguson went down. The Dolphins were going to try Randy Starks there, but he's a total misfit for the position. Now with Philip Merling out for the year, the Phins have to initiate rookie Jared Odrick with a trial by fire, and not everyone is sold on Odrick as a gap-controlling end--especially in his rookie year. On the bright side, Miami has a high-upside group of linebackers led by free agent acquisition Karlos Dansby and a secondary that could rival Cincinnati's. The Phins are moving further and further away from the Wildcat, and Chad Henne is firmly entrenched as the starter. While I'm a big Henne fan, the season is going to be almost entirely on his shoulders. The Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams train is about to leave Miami. Brown never stays healthy and Williams is likely to retire after this year. Both are in contract years and those are always tricky in whether or not a player is playing for a contract or they dog it because they know they won't be with the same team the next year. Miami's offensive line has some serious potential with Jake Long and Vernon Carey at tackle along with the mauling Jake Grove at center. Richie Incognito is going to take one of the guard spots while Donald Thomas, rookie John Jerry (big fan of his), and Nate Garner battle for the other guard spot. Also, the acquisition of Brandon Marshall will be a big help for Henne over the middle. No doubt that Miami is much better this season then last season, but it may not translate into wins because of the train wreck possibility on the defensive line.
20. Atlanta Falcons
Another team that people think is sexy plays in the Georgia Dome, but I'm not really all that inclined to agree. The Falcons have a solid young quarterback with a immense offensive talent at receiver and running back, but I'm still waiting to see what Atlanta has left in the pass rushing tank with the aging John Abraham. 2009 1st round pick Peria Jerry lost all of last season due to injury, and will make his NFL debut, supposedly, in September. He's got some serious work to do--especially with the legal difficulties of tackle Jonathan Babineaux. The secondary added a high priced free agent in Dunta Robinson, but Robinson's contract was more based on his talent and name, because he hasn't been worthy of a deal like that the last two seasons. This team could ride Michael Turner to the playoffs again, but I still am concerned about Turner's health if the Falcons choose to overwork him again. I think they have eleven very winnable games on their schedule so a playoff appearance is not out of the question, but I'm also waiting to see if Mike Smith is as good of a coach as everyone thought he was in 2008.
21. Washington Redskins
They certainly made this off-season interesting with big trades for Donovan McNabb and Jammal Brown as well as signing three of the best running backs from five years ago. The Redskins offensive line looks tons better with the acquisitions of Jammal Brown and Trent Williams (4th overall pick), but Williams is being played sort of out of position at LT when you compare his play with Jammal Brown's. Brown is a much better pass blocker while Williams has always excelled in the running game. The Skins have a plethora of out-of-gas running backs in Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, and Willie Parker running behind a mediocre interior line in an offense that lacks serious weapons in the passing game. Defensively the Skins are moving to a 3-4 which isn't an entirely outlandish move for them since they actually have a decent group of core personnel to run it if Albert Haynesworth stops his belly-aching and actually plays. The acquisition of former Rams bust Adam Carriker may have been a huge steal, as Carriker was seen as the top 3-4 DE prospect in 2007 and could revive his career in Washington (if he stays healthy). I actually don't really see the improvement from McNabb to Campbell. They're extremely similar quarterbacks. They both do a great job taking care of the ball, they can move, have huge arms, and have a tendency to display flawed footwork. The only difference is McNabb is older. What he's losing in athleticism he's making up for in an incredible desire to defeat Philadelphia and leadership. Still, it won't be enough to captain Washington into the playoffs.
22. Philadelphia Eagles
The long-term outlook in Philadelphia is outrageously bright. Philadelphia and Dallas will likely be vying for the NFC East every year for the next five years, and I get the feeling that Philadelphia is going to get the better of Dallas...just not this year. The Eagles are so full of young talent it's truly shocking. But that's the problem, the talent is young. They remind me of the 2008 Green Bay Packers. They're probably going to be a team that loses a lot of close games, and last year, the Eagles had difficulty against teams with winning records (1-5 with their only win coming against the Matt Ryan-less Falcons). I can see a lot of close calls this year with a team this young, and a lot of hype for 2011 with Kevin Kolb (who I hate to say it since I didn't like him in college) as a perfect fit for Reid's offense with super talented weapons in DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Brent Celek. The Eagles also added some big time rookies in Brandon Graham and Nate Allen in the first two rounds. However, the Eagles 2010 draft was so deep that I think this could go down as one of the best of all time and be the one that turns Philadelphia into a Super Bowl contender. They picked up legitimate starters as late as the seventh round in middle linebacker Jamar Cheney. It won't happen overnight with the 2010 class, but I have a feeling by January 2012 the Eagles will be gearing up for a serious run at Lombardi's Trophy. It's just not this year--too much youth.
23. Detroit Lions
It's nice to finally see Detroit moving in the right direction. Matthew Stafford still has a lot to prove, but he's got the toughness and gutsiness of a star along with the talent and the weapons. The addition of Jahvid Best on that turf in Detroit could really open up Detroit's offense if he stays healthy and early reviews have been very good for Best. Calvin Johnson will have the benefit of a healthy Brandon Pettigrew, newly acquired Tony Scheffler (almost exclusively for the passing game), and Nate Burleson who is expected to take some pressure off of CJ this season. The offensive line still isn't at a contending level, and will likely get Stafford beaten up again this season, but Detroit's offense is moving in the right direction. Defensively, the pass rush is still a major question mark and Kyle Vanden Bosch will do nothing to help that, but as Ndamukong Suh becomes comfortable the Lions running defense should finally become moderately respectable. Pairing Suh with rising star Sammie Lee Hill will be a huge help, and using big Corey Williams as a situational pass rusher will give Detroit some depth at DT they haven't had in years. The defense is still a mess though--especially in the secondary where the Lions still don't have a decent opposite number for Louis Delmas and are expecting Chris Houston and Jonathan Wade to start for them in 2010. There's a pretty solid bet that rookie Amari Spievey will be starting at some point this year, and that can't bode well for the Lions. There might still be some ugly blowouts (week one against a Mike Martz offense for a team with limited pass rushing skills doesn't look promising...or either game against the Packers and Aaron Rodgers), but the Lions should be a handful for a couple of teams this year.
24. Denver Broncos
Will the real Denver Broncos please stand up? We've either got the team that started the year 6-0 or the team that finished the year 2-8. Obviously, I think it's the latter and mostly I'm going to blame an old defense that is losing valuable coordinator Mike Nolan to the Miami Dolphins. Still with no reliable nose tackle (Jammal Williams coming off a season ending injury in his mid 30's is not reliable) and an overall old defense I can't see Denver competing at all in 2010. The big thing is though that Denver made some monstrous moves for the future. Tim Tebow and Demaryious Thomas are gigantic projects, but both could be stars in the making. In five years we're going to be lambasting Josh McDaniels as a pompous fool, or praising him in ten as a visionary. Either way, Denver's outlook for 2010 is grim with the off-season injury to Ryan Clady and a serious lack of depth at receiver and age all along the defense.
25. Oakland Raiders
Jason Campbell will make watching the Raiders more bareable and will definitely diminish the blow-out factor, but the Raiders are just a pig that put on an ugly shade of lipstick. The Raiders had probably their best off-season in years, but they have weak receivers (no way am I sold on the evolution of DHB), two running backs who never stay healthy, and serious age on the interior line. I don't expect Oakland to be able to stop the run this season, but I think the Raiders may finally be on the up. I think Rolando McClain, LaMarr Houston, Jared Veldheer, and Bruce Campbell all project as starters for the Raiders one day. They're still a bottom feeder though and Tom Cable likely won't survive another season without a winning record.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars
This team just reeks of total impending disaster. David Garrard seems to have completely lost his decision making skills and precision that carried the Jaguars in 2007. The offensive line is full of youthful players who struggled big time when called upon last season, and the defense is a total mess with the addition of Aaron Kampmann who is coming off of major surgery, zero depth at linebacker, a veritable reach for tackle/end Tyson Alualu, and a downright awful secondary, and there are reports that the Jaguars are already thinking about taking a quarterback in the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft. The Jaguars have the potential to be picking first overall in 2011, but have the fortune of having one of the five best running backs in football who should be able to carry the team to a few wins. Jacksonville is full of holes though, so any hope of a playoff berth is unlikely.
27. Chicago Bears
Go ahead and make the smart decision and draft Jay Cutler as a fantasy quarterback in round five. Major steal for a guy who is likely going to have to throw over 600 passes in 2010. His yards per attempt is going to be through the roof with all the deep routes Martz runs, but the INT's are still going to be high and that doesn't translate well into winning. The Julius Peppers signing was a desperation move for a team whose GM and coach are both on the hot seat and need to produce a winner immediately. Peppers will continue his routine of showing up once every three games. The Bears will continue to struggle to run the ball after failing to address a weak offensive line and likely have a defense doomed by age to Brian Urlacher and his constant inability to play a full season. Jay Cutler may throw 30 touchdowns in 2010, but expect at least 20 picks this year, if not 25.
28. Seattle Seahawks
Unhealthy, old quarterback mixed with totally unproven mediocre college quarterback who spent four years behind Philip Rivers plus proven awful NFL head coach minus legitimate targets in the passing game equals another offensive disaster in Seattle. And on defense they don't lack talent, but Pete Carroll was an overrated college coach who consistently found a way for USC to fall to teams they shouldn't that kept them out of the national title game and struggled in four years with the Jets and Patriots.
29. St. Louis Rams
They're not going to move whether they sign Terrell Owens or not. This is my pre-season spot for them. I think Bradford starting from day one without the proper weapons is a mistake even though I'm a big Bradford fan. I also think that the Rams are still a defensive mess unless they get legitimate production from Chris Long. Too many holes in the secondary, too much youth on offense, well below average receivers, rookie quarterback...yawn.
30. Kansas City Chiefs
Why bother? The offensive line is still full of holes, the receiver situation is really iffy, the Chiefs have easily the most overpaid quarterback in football, and are running a 3-4 defense that has no nose tackle (how does this keep happening!?). It's going to be a long year in Kansas City, but on the bright side it'll be fun seeing how Dwayne Bowe and Derrick Johnson get out of the dog house of Todd Haley (if they ever do) and to see which Chief is next into Haley's dog house (which is more like a dog mansion these days).
31. Buffalo Bills
I am starting to get tired of bashing them so here's the quick version. No quarterback. Atrocious weapons. Miserable offensive line. Switch to the 3-4 without the personnel to do it. Their best defensive player likely to retire. Their second and third best defensive players coming off of major injuries. New head coach who has a proven record of failure in the NFL. Three teams who are WAY more talented then they are in their division. God this is getting ugly quickly.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
So when did starting two rookie receivers, having no running game, a shell shocked quarterback, and a clueless GM/head coach combo make you anything other than a contender for number one overall pick? If the rookies contribute and Freeman improves the Bucs will be somewhat respectable and won't be in the cellar, but they won't finish above .500 and I'm not counting on any of that to actually happen with the completely out of touch front office and the clueless Raheem Morris.
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